birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 19:11:13 GMT
SOPN - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, x1 Independent, x1 No description
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 7, 2024 19:20:42 GMT
The nomination of "Jeremy Bernard Corbyn" who lives in Kensington and Chelsea was rejected. I assume this was a deliberate attempt to confuse?
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 7, 2024 20:15:00 GMT
The nomination of "Jeremy Bernard Corbyn" who lives in Kensington and Chelsea was rejected. I assume this was a deliberate attempt to confuse? I thought the RO was still required to accept such a spoiler nomination and their only discretion is to rule to put the actual name alongside the "commonly known as" on the ballot paper? |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 7, 2024 21:16:07 GMT
Corbyns team are running a "data entry party", every day. I understand around twelve volunteers attend everyday and it's often "sold out". This is impressive and is further evidence his campaign is a solid, well supported one
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Post by johnloony on Jun 7, 2024 21:29:24 GMT
The nomination of "Jeremy Bernard Corbyn" who lives in Kensington and Chelsea was rejected. I assume this was a deliberate attempt to confuse? I thought the RO was still required to accept such a spoiler nomination and their only discretion is to rule to put the actual name alongside the "commonly known as" on the ballot paper? It merely says that the nomination is “not as required by law” which is a catch-all term for a whole lot of different possible reasons for ruling a nomination as invalid. You are correct in saying that the Returning Officer has to accept what is “on the face of” the nomination paper. “I think that this candidate is trying to confuse the voters” is not a valid reason for rejecting a nomination. “I’m not sure if ‘Jeremy Bernard Corbyn’ is actually the name he really commonly uses in real life” is not a valid reason for rejecting a nomination. It might have been rejected because one of the signatures didn’t match, or because he wasn’t qualified, or because he didn’t sign the ‘consent to nomination’ form, or because he didn’t put his name in properly, or whatever. Without any more specific information, we should not assume that the reason was an improper one. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 8, 2024 19:33:29 GMT
Walking around Finsbury Park just now I noticed several shops with "Vote Corbyn" Corbyn posters in the window.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2024 19:35:42 GMT
Walking around Finsbury Park just now I noticed several shops with "Vote Corbyn" Corbyn posters in the window. It figures. It's also the most Muslim part of the seat, IIRC I have seen more red and white "VOTE CORBYN" posters on the boundary between Camden and this seat. |
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Post by redtony on Jun 8, 2024 20:46:10 GMT
Where in Finsbury Park
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Post by carolus on Jun 8, 2024 21:08:24 GMT
A couple along Rock Street, I forget where the other one I saw was, but near the station. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 11, 2024 14:28:07 GMT
“Stats for Lefties” is crowdfunding for a Survation constituency poll here.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 15:56:47 GMT
Forecast
CORBYN 51%
LAB 28%
CON 9%
LD 9%
GRN 2%
OTH 1%
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 11, 2024 16:25:10 GMT
CORBYN 51% LAB 28% CON 9% LD 9% GRN 2% OTH 1% Is that a prediction of the poll or of the result? |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,821
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Post by right on Jun 11, 2024 16:30:16 GMT
CORBYN 51% LAB 28% CON 9% LD 9% GRN 2% OTH 1% Source? |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 16:36:02 GMT
it's his prediction. No poll has been conducted
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,809 
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Post by john07 on Jun 11, 2024 16:39:28 GMT
It think such 'predictions' should be banned and deleted from the thread.
It is bloody confusing when some idiot guesses a few numbers and posts it as if it is informing us.
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 16:45:48 GMT
Nevertheless he is unlikely to be alone in doing that. It was a common feature of UKPR in its heyday too. I have no objection to predictions but would like to see some reasoning as well.
UKPR are clearly diversifying as they have scaffolding up on the junction of the Mortlake Road & High Park Road in Kew.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 17:04:57 GMT
CORBYN 51% LAB 28% CON 9% LD 9% GRN 2% OTH 1% In 2022, Labour carried Islington North 52% - 29% in the local elections. The only seats they didn't were in the far south of Islington North in Highbury (the most upmarket part of Corbyn's constituency). You can't project from locals to the GE. Still, lots of those Green voters may switch to him since nationally in 2017, when Corbyn led Labour, the Greens fell back sharply in many urban constituencies to Labour's advantage (Cambridge, Leeds North West and many others, Bristol West (now Central). You see a pattern, don't you? Students and young people shifted decisively to Labour in that election. Labour has generally fallen back in Hackney and Islington (demographically similar areas) since 2019 - we saw this in the locals, with the Greens breaking through in the former and consolidating their foothold in the latter. The support for Corbyn in his seat (which is on the other side of the road from me on Hornsey Lane, is palpable. Walk up the road from Dartmouth Park to Highgate, and you'll see tons of JC posters. You also see posters that refer to Starmer as a "war criminal". Gaza was a big issue in this area, and a Labour councillor left the party in Finsbury Park. Plus it's not just about Gaza or some personality cult here, his role in protecting the Whittington Hospital has boosted his reputation here. For all these reasons I believe Corbyn will win an overall majority of votes and carry every ward in Islington North. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 11, 2024 17:15:16 GMT
“Stats for Lefties” is crowdfunding for a Survation constituency poll here. £7,000 being quoted. Not cheap. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 11, 2024 17:15:56 GMT
“Stats for Lefties” is crowdfunding for a Survation constituency poll here. £7,000 being quoted. Not cheap. As several have pointed out they’re being ripped off |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 11, 2024 18:39:54 GMT
CORBYN 51% LAB 28% CON 9% LD 9% GRN 2% OTH 1% If that is your prediction, you should write “I predict:” at the beginning, otherwise people will be misled into thinking you are writing something useful or informative like a constituency poll. |
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