Harrow West

[Deleted]

A swing to the Tories here. However, I believe Pamela Fitzpatrick was a left-wing indepdnnet and so the pro-Tory swing is down to her candidacy, in part. Still, the combined vote share for the Conservatives and Reform was 35%. I'm positive there was a Sunak effect with Hindu voters here, but this is no Harrow East, and I crucify the Boundary Commission for not calling this seat 'Harrow Central' which is what it is sans 'Ruislip' (in Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, and Uxbridge & South Ruislip).

Tories would've won the old 'Harrow West' at this GE because Labour won this by 14% - am I wrong? Unlike Brent West, I don't see the Tories winning his easily in 2029, unless something drastic happens with the party having a brown leader again (I think Suella and Priti might have some genuine appeal here, but wold the Tories do better in these seas in 2029 (and better enough to win this seat from 16% behind)? Hendon and Uxbridge seem much more straightforward opportunities for the Conservatives at some point. Brent and Harrow, and Ealing and Hillingdon will be close in 2028. Both seats saw a pro-Tory swing in the 2024 London elections.

I think the London Tories have missed a trick hitherto by not nominating a British Asian like Hossain or someone like Syed Kamal. Why do these people never get the nod? Why do the London Tories select Shaun Bailey and Susan Hill?. The Tories aren't serious about London unfortunately, and Londoners (probably) suffer as a result. We get red Khan's 'cash grabs' (I'm talking tongue in cheek since I like Sahib Khan and I have backed him previously. What happens in London in 2028 depends on whether Khan is the mayoral candidate - I think he will be actually. Why do I think Khan runs for a fourth term? He has. quite simply, nothing else to do. He'll be 58 so not quite able to draw his (I'm sure it's generous) pension and too old, probably too old, to be Labour leader. Plus he wouldn't want it. The right wing press would tear hm a new one because of who and what he is.

Without the useless independents and Reform, the result would've been something like: LAB 44% CON 35% GRN 14%, LD 7%. Still a stretch for the Tories to win. Speaking of Harrow, I think 2026 will be an easy Tory victory: CON 43 (+12) LAB 12 (-12); CON gain from LAB - Edgware, Greenhill (3), Harrow on the Hill (2), Headstone (3), Marlborough (2), Rayners Lane. It will depend on whether Suella or Priti wins the Tory leadership election, or it may not if the trends continue anyway.

[norflondon]

Yet another long standing Lab MP who lost a serious amount of votes nearly 10% despite his party being streets Ahead in the polls! A very similar result to 2019 here, the Independent candidate appears to have taken 10% of Thomas's votes off him. A v good return

I had heard of her before but a little digging discovers more: she started off the Harrow Law centre herself and so might be regarded by using that old-fashioned phrase: a poor man's lawyer. One of the many expelled by labour on the most ridiculous and, it must be said, dishonest grounds - for writing an article in a left-wing group's publication/magazine. Before the group was proscribed by the party, many months before

[ColinJ]

Labour will view the result here as totally satisfactory. Why? Because Harrow West was not prioritised for resources when there were so many important seats close by that were targets, such as Uxbridge, Hendon and (sharp intake of breath) Harrow East.

Incidentally, I have to report that some of Pamela Fitzpatrick's supporters behaved badly at the count. She cannot be held totally responsible for this and surely would condemn those that shouted profanities, slapped people on the back aggresively, disrupted the concentration of count staff, spat at Labour councillors, threatened to pour hot drinks over people, etc. I am surprised the RO did not have them removed.

[batman]

I'm afraid that while Pamela is not a bad person herself she all too readily associates with people who are. This is basically got expelled. Yes the group she wrote for was not yet proscribed, but it was not difficult for a vaguely intelligent person to know that their entire raison d'etre was antisemitism denial, at best. I'm very disappointed in her; I met her & thought she was a very principled socialist, and maybe in some respects she is, but she does associate with some really serious wrong 'uns.

[rcronald]

Jul 9, 2024 10:28:07 GMT ColinJ said:

Labour will view the result here as totally satisfactory. Why? Because Harrow West was not prioritised for resources when there were so many important seats close by that were targets, such as Uxbridge, Hendon and (sharp intake of breath) Harrow East.

Incidentally, I have to report that some of Pamela Fitzpatrick's supporters behaved badly at the count. She cannot be held totally responsible for this and surely would condemn those that shouted profanities, slapped people on the back aggresively, disrupted the concentration of count staff, spat at Labour councillors, threatened to pour hot drinks over people, etc. I am surprised the RO did not have them removed.

Supporters of Gaza Indi candidates act badly? I’m shocked.

[norflondon]

Was intrigued to by this claim, so I did a bit of digging. There is no report of any trouble at the count in the local papers.

www.harrowtimes.co.uk/news/24433248.harrow-west-general-election-2024-results-full/

There is nothing really on Twitter apart from someone reporting there was a "kerfuffle".

These claims from the poster above seem to be the latest in horrible lies and horse*** that is told by the Lab right wing/centrists about the Lab left-wing.

[ColinJ]

Jul 9, 2024 11:43:45 GMT norflondon said:

Was intrigued to by this claim, so I did a bit of digging. There is no report of any trouble at the count in the local papers.

www.harrowtimes.co.uk/news/24433248.harrow-west-general-election-2024-results-full/

There is nothing really on Twitter apart from someone reporting there was a "kerfuffle".

These claims from the poster above seem to be the latest in horrible lies and horse*** that is told by the Lab right wing/centrists about the Lab left-wing.

I beg your pardon?

[Deleted]

CON + RFM

LAB 43%
CON 35%
GRN 5%
IND 9%
LD 6%
OTH 2%

To win this, the Tories will need 1) Suella or Priti as leader; and 2) to a appeal to Labour voters rather than just Reform ones. The Tories have a lower ceiling here than Harrow East because, as I understand it, a lot of the minority voters on the border with Ealing North aren't Indians but more Labour-leaning groups, IIRC. 

[norflondon]

Only way BB loses is if c. 50% of the Indian voters move, probably to Northwood, Pinner, Eastcote etc

[Deleted]

Jul 10, 2024 17:02:08 GMT norflondon said:

Only way BB loses is if c. 50% of the Indian voters move, probably to Northwood, Pinner, Eastcote etc

I wondered about that. What if the Ugandan Asians who dominate the seat's elections move out to Hertsmere, South West Herts etc? I think the proximity to a lot of good schools plus the tube links may reduce that. If you can buy a nice semi in Stanmore or Hatch End why wouldn't you stay in Harrow? I think for a lot of them, RSN&P is still pricey, and they are in spitting distance of the elite schools like Harrow, Merchant Taylors, Haberdashers, Queen Elizabeth Barnet and Henrietta Barnet, as well as North London Collegiate School by dint of living in Harrow East. Plus, might some be persuaded to stay notwithstanding other factors by having a Tory council? Hillingdon is much more marginal than Harrow really. I can only speak to the ambitious lower middle class Hindu families I've met here, and I don't know much about the rest of demographics.

[norflondon]

From a friend in HA7

"Hatch End is not in Harrow E seat

Most of them will be in Belmont and Queensbury. Not many in Stanmore. BB safe for another 10 yrs"

[Deleted]

Jul 10, 2024 17:36:17 GMT norflondon said:

From a friend in HA7

"Hatch End is not in Harrow E seat

Most of them will be in Belmont and Queensbury. Not many in Stanmore. BB safe for another 10 yrs"

My mistake. I did some work out there in 2020 and must've misremembered meeting Blackman supporters there who I actually met elsewhere. The Tories suffer from Pinner not being in the seat. If you circle back to the old Harrow Central (which would be a better name for the seat, with Rusilip, Northwood being renamed 'Ruislip-Northwood and Harrow West'), it was closer in October 1974 than it was in 1966. I suspect it'd be very good for Labour on the old boundaries (pre-1983).

[birkinabe]

Jul 10, 2024 5:22:19 GMT @weld said:

The Tories have a lower ceiling here than Harrow East because, as I understand it, a lot of the minority voters on the border with Ealing North aren't Indians but more Labour-leaning groups, IIRC. 

I would also suspect that the white population here is significantly more Labour-leaning than it is in Harrow East.