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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:48:08 GMT
Harrow West
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 20:17:05 GMT
Link to profile2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales) Age 65+ 12.5% 504/575 Owner occupied 53.4% 471/575 Private rented 35.0% 35/575 Social rented 11.6% 446/575 White 34.2% 563/575 Black 8.8% 70/575 Asian 44.6% 15/575 Religion Hindu 24.3% 4/575 Managerial & professional 34.3% 248/575 Routine & Semi-routine 17.3% 475/575 Degree level 45.3% 60/575 No qualifications 16.7% 348/575 Students 9.7% 102/575 Boundary ChangesHarrow West will consist of 93.9% of Harrow West 8.8% of Harrow East Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_146_Harrow%20West_Portrait.pdfNotional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher) Lab | 26437 | 53.1% | Con | 17339 | 34.8% | LD | 4107 | 8.3% | Grn | 1028 | 2.1% | BxP | 882 | 1.8% | | | | | | | Majority | 9098 | 18.3% |
Candidates: Labour - Gareth Thomas - incumbent Conservative - Abbas Merali - Three Rivers councillor Lib Dem - Chris Noyce - former councillor for Rayners Lane and serial candidate for this seat between 1992 and 2017 Reform UK - Michael Beavis
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Post by batman on Mar 18, 2024 21:01:27 GMT
Did the Reform candidate beat Mr Butthead in the final round of the selection?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 9:58:42 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | 1945 | 39.2% | 41.6% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 1950 | 49.2% | 39.2% | 11.6% | | 1951 | 57.1% | 36.7% | 6.3% | | 1955 | 58.2% | 41.8% | | | 1959 | 60.1% | 39.9% | | | 1964 | 44.3% | 36.0% | 19.8% | | 1966 | 42.9% | 41.5% | 15.6% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 48.5% | 38.9% | 12.0% | | 1974 | 39.7% | 34.4% | 24.6% | 1.3% | 1974 | 40.5% | 37.5% | 20.6% | 1.4% | 1979 | 45.8% | 36.1% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 1983 | 45.1% | 19.9% | 35.1% | | 1987 | 48.0% | 22.0% | 30.0% | | 1992 | 47.2% | 29.1% | 21.1% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Grn | | | | | | | 1997 | 31.9% | 48.9% | 15.6% | 3.4% | | 2001 | 28.0% | 56.8% | 14.4% | 0.8% | | 2005 | 30.3% | 48.8% | 19.0% | 1.3% | | 2010 | 35.7% | 44.7% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2015 | 41.1% | 48.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2017 | 34.0% | 61.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2019 | 34.8% | 53.1% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 29, 2024 17:15:42 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | 1945 | 39.2% | 41.6% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 1950 | 49.2% | 39.2% | 11.6% | | 1951 | 57.1% | 36.7% | 6.3% | | 1955 | 58.2% | 41.8% | | | 1959 | 60.1% | 39.9% | | | 1964 | 44.3% | 36.0% | 19.8% | | 1966 | 42.9% | 41.5% | 15.6% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 48.5% | 38.9% | 12.0% | | 1974 | 39.7% | 34.4% | 24.6% | 1.3% | 1974 | 40.5% | 37.5% | 20.6% | 1.4% | 1979 | 45.8% | 36.1% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 1983 | 45.1% | 19.9% | 35.1% | | 1987 | 48.0% | 22.0% | 30.0% | | 1992 | 47.2% | 29.1% | 21.1% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Grn | | | | | | | 1997 | 31.9% | 48.9% | 15.6% | 3.4% | | 2001 | 28.0% | 56.8% | 14.4% | 0.8% | | 2005 | 30.3% | 48.8% | 19.0% | 1.3% | | 2010 | 35.7% | 44.7% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2015 | 41.1% | 48.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2017 | 34.0% | 61.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2019 | 34.8% | 53.1% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
Crazy constituency this, 18k Tory majority in 1992 now a solid Labour seat
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 20:28:43 GMT
a lot of it, though obviously nothing like all, is down to boundary changes. As many know here, the Harrow West that the Tories won by 18K in 1992, and then lost to Labour narrowly in 1997, included the solid Tory wards of Pinner, Pinner West as it then was & Hatch End. These wards were all excised in 2010 & in their place came some much more Labour-inclined territory from Harrow East. It is because of this that East became a less Labour seat than West, and subsequent demographic-cum-political changes have if anything accentuated this still further. Pinner South is now close to being a marginal, but its Labour vote 30 years ago was pretty small. Pinner & Hatch End remain Tory strongholds to this day.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,110
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Post by ColinJ on May 24, 2024 8:34:49 GMT
Pamela Fitzpatrick, former Labour councillor associated with the Alliance for Workers Liberty, is standing as an Independent in Harrow West. www.facebook.com/pamela4harrowwest/
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Post by batman on May 24, 2024 9:47:41 GMT
I don't think she is aligned with AWL any more. She was at the time she was a Labour candidate. Her record on antisemitism, amongst other things, is frowned on by AWL which had nothing to do with the antisemitism-tainted grouplets with which she was associated at the time of her expulsion. I have argued with her quite heatedly on the subject whereas AWL's record is a mostly honourable one on it.
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Post by norflondon on May 29, 2024 11:12:54 GMT
I'm told that there will be a hustings/public debate in this seat involving the Lab, Con and the independent candidate Fitzpatrick. Seems unusual or uncommon nowadays. I wonder how many other seats will have them.
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Post by johnloony on May 29, 2024 11:55:05 GMT
I'm told that there will be a hustings/public debate in this seat involving the Lab, Con and the independent candidate Fitzpatrick. Seems unusual or uncommon nowadays. I wonder how many other seats will have them. In Croydon Central we had loads of hustings meetings in 2015; less so in 2017 and 2019 because of the rushed circumstances.
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 29, 2024 12:05:51 GMT
I'm told that there will be a hustings/public debate in this seat involving the Lab, Con and the independent candidate Fitzpatrick. Seems unusual or uncommon nowadays. I wonder how many other seats will have them. Hustings involving all candidates still a thing here in Crewe & Nantwich. Hustings excluding certain candidates create "issues".
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Post by norflondon on Jun 8, 2024 7:10:53 GMT
The hustings here was 'attended' by Con, Lab and the Ind candidate but the incumbent MP didn't physically turn up, he contributed via a video link/Zoom, reportedly, citing concerns about his safety.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,110
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Post by ColinJ on Jun 8, 2024 7:11:01 GMT
Candidates in Harrow West are as follows: Michael J. BEAVIS Reform UK Pamela J. FITZPATRICK Independent Rupert N. GEORGE Green Party Abbasali M. ('Abbas') MERALI Conservative Party Christoper D. ('Chris') NOYCE Liberal Democrat Bharatkumar I. PATEL Independent Gareth R. THOMAS Labour and Co-operative Party www.harrow.gov.uk/downloads/file/32288/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_and_Notice_of_Poll_Harrow_West.pdfMerali is a district councillor in Three Rivers for Moor Park and Eastbury ward. Noyce has been involved with the Liberal Democrats (and the Liberals before that) for as long as I have been interested in Harrow elections and has been a regular parliamentary candidate in Harrow West. Patel is an unknown quantity to me, but is an elector in Harrow West. His proposer, seconder and assentors are unfamiliar. Gareth Thomas has been MP for Harrow West under its various boundaries since 1997, and must be part of a dwindling band of 1997 intake veterans.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 20, 2024 13:32:37 GMT
I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick:
"I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2024 13:38:36 GMT
I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick: "I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"Extraordinary language? Is it any different to Caroline Lucas saying "the first rule of leadership is to show up" in 2017 when Theresa May ducked a debate? As a general principle, I don't see anything shocking about refusing to vote for people who don't do hustings (assuming you apply the same standard to all candidates).
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 20, 2024 20:05:15 GMT
I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick: "I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"Extraordinary language? Is it any different to Caroline Lucas saying "the first rule of leadership is to show up" in 2017 when Theresa May ducked a debate? As a general principle, I don't see anything shocking about refusing to vote for people who don't do hustings (assuming you apply the same standard to all candidates). If there is credible risk of physical harm I would hardly term it as ducking a debate or that you "don't do hustings".
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Post by batman on Jun 20, 2024 20:19:16 GMT
I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick: "I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings" she's Pamela. She has treated me personally with arrogance & contempt in the past.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 20, 2024 20:23:31 GMT
I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick: "I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings" she's Pamela. She has treated me personally with arrogance & contempt in the past. Why?
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Post by batman on Jun 20, 2024 21:27:15 GMT
Because I dared to criticise her sharing a platform with some particular nasties. I had thought she was better than that and I had not been alone in that view. It is true that I did not pull any punches, but I was not personally abusive. Of course, you would not recognise them as nasties. I canvassed for her before my estrangement from the party once, in an event organised by Owen Jones, and met her at that event. I also supported her son who in my view at that time had been harshly been suspended from the party. The canvass did not generally go well.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2024 6:59:49 GMT
Because I dared to criticise her sharing a platform with some particular nasties. I had thought she was better than that and I had not been alone in that view. It is true that I did not pull any punches, but I was not personally abusive. Of course, you would not recognise them as nasties. I canvassed for her before my estrangement from the party once, in an event organised by Owen Jones, and met her at that event. I also supported her son who in my view at that time had been harshly been suspended from the party. The canvass did not generally go well. No, not 'nasties'. I would agree some of them, some not. I don't have any time with the 'anti-semitism' view, which I understand their position, but I'm largely opposed. But the Labour right I dislike - it's got worse.
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