Harrow West

[stb12]

Harrow West

[Pete Whitehead]

Link to profile

Sept 19, 2023 0:20:34 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)

Age 65+ 12.5% 504/575
Owner occupied 53.4% 471/575
Private rented 35.0% 35/575
Social rented 11.6% 446/575
White 34.2% 563/575
Black 8.8% 70/575
Asian 44.6% 15/575
Religion Hindu 24.3% 4/575
Managerial & professional 34.3% 248/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.3% 475/575
Degree level 45.3% 60/575
No qualifications 16.7% 348/575
Students 9.7% 102/575


Boundary Changes
Harrow West will consist of
93.9% of Harrow West
8.8% of Harrow East

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_146_Harrow%20West_Portrait.pdf


Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)

Lab	26437	53.1%
Con	17339	34.8%
LD	4107	8.3%
Grn	1028	2.1%
BxP	882	1.8%
Majority	9098	18.3%

Candidates:

Labour - Gareth Thomas - incumbent
Conservative - Abbas Merali - Three Rivers councillor
Lib Dem - Chris Noyce - former councillor for Rayners Lane and serial candidate for this seat between 1992 and 2017
Reform UK - Michael Beavis

[batman]

Did the Reform candidate beat Mr Butthead in the final round of the selection?

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	39.2%	41.6%	13.5%	1.9%
1950	49.2%	39.2%	11.6%
1951	57.1%	36.7%	6.3%
1955	58.2%	41.8%
1959	60.1%	39.9%
1964	44.3%	36.0%	19.8%
1966	42.9%	41.5%	15.6%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	48.5%	38.9%	12.0%
1974	39.7%	34.4%	24.6%	1.3%
1974	40.5%	37.5%	20.6%	1.4%
1979	45.8%	36.1%	16.7%	1.4%
1983	45.1%	19.9%	35.1%
1987	48.0%	22.0%	30.0%
1992	47.2%	29.1%	21.1%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Grn
1997	31.9%	48.9%	15.6%	3.4%
2001	28.0%	56.8%	14.4%	0.8%
2005	30.3%	48.8%	19.0%	1.3%
2010	35.7%	44.7%	16.1%	2.1%	1.4%
2015	41.1%	48.2%	3.3%	4.5%	2.8%
2017	34.0%	61.2%	2.5%	0.8%	1.4%
2019	34.8%	53.1%	8.3%	1.8%	2.1%

[swingometer]

Apr 29, 2024 9:58:42 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	39.2%	41.6%	13.5%	1.9%
1950	49.2%	39.2%	11.6%
1951	57.1%	36.7%	6.3%
1955	58.2%	41.8%
1959	60.1%	39.9%
1964	44.3%	36.0%	19.8%
1966	42.9%	41.5%	15.6%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	48.5%	38.9%	12.0%
1974	39.7%	34.4%	24.6%	1.3%
1974	40.5%	37.5%	20.6%	1.4%
1979	45.8%	36.1%	16.7%	1.4%
1983	45.1%	19.9%	35.1%
1987	48.0%	22.0%	30.0%
1992	47.2%	29.1%	21.1%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Grn
1997	31.9%	48.9%	15.6%	3.4%
2001	28.0%	56.8%	14.4%	0.8%
2005	30.3%	48.8%	19.0%	1.3%
2010	35.7%	44.7%	16.1%	2.1%	1.4%
2015	41.1%	48.2%	3.3%	4.5%	2.8%
2017	34.0%	61.2%	2.5%	0.8%	1.4%
2019	34.8%	53.1%	8.3%	1.8%	2.1%

Crazy constituency this, 18k Tory majority in 1992 now a solid Labour seat

[batman]

a lot of it, though obviously nothing like all, is down to boundary changes. As many know here, the Harrow West that the Tories won by 18K in 1992, and then lost to Labour narrowly in 1997, included the solid Tory wards of Pinner, Pinner West as it then was & Hatch End. These wards were all excised in 2010 & in their place came some much more Labour-inclined territory from Harrow East. It is because of this that East became a less Labour seat than West, and subsequent demographic-cum-political changes have if anything accentuated this still further. Pinner South is now close to being a marginal, but its Labour vote 30 years ago was pretty small. Pinner & Hatch End remain Tory strongholds to this day.

[ColinJ]

Pamela Fitzpatrick, former Labour councillor associated with the Alliance for Workers Liberty, is standing as an Independent in Harrow West.

www.facebook.com/pamela4harrowwest/

[batman]

I don't think she is aligned with AWL any more. She was at the time she was a Labour candidate. Her record on antisemitism, amongst other things, is frowned on by AWL which had nothing to do with the antisemitism-tainted grouplets with which she was associated at the time of her expulsion. I have argued with her quite heatedly on the subject whereas AWL's record is a mostly honourable one on it.

[norflondon]

I'm told that there will be a hustings/public debate in this seat involving the Lab, Con and the independent candidate Fitzpatrick. Seems unusual or uncommon nowadays. I wonder how many other seats will have them.

[johnloony]

May 29, 2024 11:12:54 GMT norflondon said:

I'm told that there will be a hustings/public debate in this seat involving the Lab, Con and the independent candidate Fitzpatrick. Seems unusual or uncommon nowadays. I wonder how many other seats will have them.

In Croydon Central we had loads of hustings meetings in 2015; less so in 2017 and 2019 because of the rushed circumstances.

[gwynthegriff]

May 29, 2024 11:12:54 GMT norflondon said:

I'm told that there will be a hustings/public debate in this seat involving the Lab, Con and the independent candidate Fitzpatrick. Seems unusual or uncommon nowadays. I wonder how many other seats will have them.

Hustings involving all candidates still a thing here in Crewe & Nantwich.

Hustings excluding certain candidates create "issues".

[norflondon]

The hustings here was 'attended' by Con, Lab and the Ind candidate but the incumbent MP didn't physically turn up, he contributed via a video link/Zoom, reportedly, citing concerns about his safety.

[ColinJ]

Candidates in Harrow West are as follows:

Michael J. BEAVIS    Reform UK
Pamela J. FITZPATRICK    Independent
Rupert N. GEORGE    Green Party
Abbasali M. ('Abbas') MERALI    Conservative Party
Christoper D. ('Chris') NOYCE    Liberal Democrat
Bharatkumar I. PATEL    Independent
Gareth R. THOMAS    Labour and Co-operative Party

www.harrow.gov.uk/downloads/file/32288/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_and_Notice_of_Poll_Harrow_West.pdf

Merali is a district councillor in Three Rivers for Moor Park and Eastbury ward.  Noyce has been involved with the Liberal Democrats (and the Liberals before that) for as long as I have been interested in Harrow elections and has been a regular parliamentary candidate in Harrow West.  

Patel is an unknown quantity to me, but is an elector in Harrow West.  His proposer, seconder and assentors are unfamiliar.  Gareth Thomas has been MP for Harrow West under its various boundaries since 1997, and must be part of a dwindling band of 1997 intake veterans.

[norflondon]

I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick:

"I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"

[Deleted]

Jun 20, 2024 13:32:37 GMT norflondon said:

I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick:

"I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"

Extraordinary language? Is it any different to Caroline Lucas saying "the first rule of leadership is to show up" in 2017 when Theresa May ducked a debate? As a general principle, I don't see anything shocking about refusing to vote for people who don't do hustings (assuming you apply the same standard to all candidates). 

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 20, 2024 13:38:36 GMT @weld said:

Jun 20, 2024 13:32:37 GMT norflondon said:

I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick:

"I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"

Extraordinary language? Is it any different to Caroline Lucas saying "the first rule of leadership is to show up" in 2017 when Theresa May ducked a debate? As a general principle, I don't see anything shocking about refusing to vote for people who don't do hustings (assuming you apply the same standard to all candidates). 

If there is credible risk of physical harm I would hardly term it as ducking a debate or that you "don't do hustings".

[batman]

Jun 20, 2024 13:32:37 GMT norflondon said:

I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick:

"I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"

she's Pamela. She has treated me personally with arrogance & contempt in the past. 

[Merseymike]

Jun 20, 2024 20:19:16 GMT batman said:

Jun 20, 2024 13:32:37 GMT norflondon said:

I see another hustings here Sat evening. Extraordinary language by Independent Paula Fitzpatrick:

"I'll be attending a hustings on Saturday. Once again the Labour candidate won’t attend. No one should vote for a candidate so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate that he can’t be bothered to take part in the democratic process of hustings"

she's Pamela. She has treated me personally with arrogance & contempt in the past. 

Why?

[batman]

Because I dared to criticise her sharing a platform with some particular nasties. I had thought she was better than that and I had not been alone in that view. It is true that I did not pull any punches, but I was not personally abusive. Of course, you would not recognise them as nasties. I canvassed for her before my estrangement from the party once, in an event organised by Owen Jones, and met her at that event. I also supported her son who in my view at that time had been harshly been suspended from the party. The canvass did not generally go well.

[Merseymike]

Jun 20, 2024 21:27:15 GMT batman said:

Because I dared to criticise her sharing a platform with some particular nasties. I had thought she was better than that and I had not been alone in that view. It is true that I did not pull any punches, but I was not personally abusive. Of course, you would not recognise them as nasties. I canvassed for her before my estrangement from the party once, in an event organised by Owen Jones, and met her at that event. I also supported her son who in my view at that time had been harshly been suspended from the party. The canvass did not generally go well.

No, not 'nasties'. I would agree some of them, some not. I don't have any time with the 'anti-semitism' view, which I understand their position, but I'm largely opposed.
But the Labour right I dislike - it's got worse.