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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:37:25 GMT
Chipping Barnet
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 19:01:06 GMT
Link to profile2019 result Theresa Villers | Con | 25745 | 44.7% | Emma Whysall | Lab | 24533 | 42.6% | Isabelle Parasram | LD | 5932 | 10.3% | Gabrielle Bailey | Grn | 1288 | 2.2% | John Sheffield | Oth | 71 | 0.1% | | | | | Majority | | 1212 | 2.1% |
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Thrasher & Rallings) Con | 27777 | 47.5% | Lab | 23568 | 40.3% | LD | 5745 | 9.8% | Grn | 1261 | 2.2% | Oth | 71 | 0.1% | | | | Majority | 4209 | 7.2% |
Ward map boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_122_Chipping%20Barnet_Landscape.pdf2021 Census, new boundariesAge 65+ 17.0% 374/575 Owner occupied 65.4% 305/575 Private rented 23.4% 137/575 Social rented 11.2% 468/575 White 63.4% 488/575 Black 6.3% 109/575 Asian 16.9% 79/575 Jewish 9.7% 6/575 Managerial & professional 42.8% 72/575 Routine & Semi-routine 13.4% 549/575 Degree level 48.6% 42/575 No qualifications 14.2% 457/575 Students 7.5% 170/575
Boundary ChangesChipping Barnet consists of 84.7% of Chipping Barnet 11.8% of Hendon 0.3% of Finchley & Golders Green Candidates: Conservative - Theresa Villiers (incumbent) Labour - Dan Tomlinson Lib Dem - TBA Reform UK - Hamish HaddowGreen - David Farbey
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2024 16:58:58 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib |
| | | | | | 1945 | 47.3% | 40.4% | 12.3% | | 1950 | 57.8% | 30.2% | 11.9% | | 1951 | 61.5% | 30.4% | 8.1% | | 1955 | 64.6% | 33.0% | 2.4% | | 1959 | 66.9% | 29.5% | 3.7% | | 1964 | 53.4% | 26.0% | 20.6% | | 1966 | 52.4% | 30.7% | 16.9% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 58.4% | 28.6% | 13.0% | | 1974 | 49.2% | 25.5% | 25.2% | | 1974 | 49.2% | 27.7% | 20.7% | 2.4% | 1979 | 58.7% | 24.7% | 14.9% | 1.7% | 1983 | 57.0% | 15.9% | 25.5% | | 1987 | 59.1% | 18.8% | 22.0% | | 1992 | 57.5% | 25.9% | 15.5% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Green | | | | | | | 1997 | 43.0% | 41.1% | 12.2% | 2.4% | | 2001 | 45.7% | 40.8% | 13.3% | | | 2005 | 46.3% | 33.4% | 15.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2010 | 49.9% | 25.4% | 19.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2015 | 50.4% | 33.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2017 | 48.4% | 43.8% | 5.3% | | 2.3% | 2019 | 47.5% | 40.3% | 9.8% | | 2.2% |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 7, 2024 18:49:36 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 23, 2024 18:17:53 GMT
Given the unexpected narrowness of this result (Labour majority of under 3k) I wonder if Theresa Villiers might be tempted to stand again to try to win this back in 2028?
Worth noting that since this seat was created in February 1974, the Conservative vote has always been between a high in 2015 of 25,759 and this year's low of 18,671. That feels remarkably stable given that's 50 years of elections between three very different MPs in Maudling, Chapman and Villiers and at a time when Conservative fortunes in Greater London have declined markedly.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Aug 6, 2024 12:52:41 GMT
Given the unexpected narrowness of this result (Labour majority of under 3k) I wonder if Theresa Villiers might be tempted to stand again to try to win this back in 2028? Worth noting that since this seat was created in February 1974, the Conservative vote has always been between a high in 2015 of 25,759 and this year's low of 18,671. That feels remarkably stable given that's 50 years of elections between three very different MPs in Maudling, Chapman and Villiers and at a time when Conservative fortunes in Greater London have declined markedly. Though worth noting also that the 50 years of elections have been on four sets of boundaries which, while heavily overlapping, have enclosed very different total areas. Maudling in October 1974 won comfortably with less than a thousand more votes than Villiers got in her 2024 defeat, and Villiers' record total in 2015 was less than 200 more than Chapman's total in 1979 - but, in percentage terms, Villiers' 2015 total was only a bit over 1% higher than Maudling's October 1974 total and over 8% lower than Chapman in 1979. The reason is that Chipping Barnet between 1979 and 1997 was a lot smaller than it has been more recently - indeed, from 1983, it had one of the lowest electorates in London. Compared with the present constituency, it excluded almost all of Edgwarebury ward, most of Whetstone and what is now the Millbrook Park estate (then the Inglis barracks) in Totteridge and Woodside, only compensated for by a few streets now at the northern end of Woodhouse (in Finchley and Golders Green) - all in all, equivalent to 20% or so of the current constituency by electorate. The 1997 boundary revisions added a normally fairly safe Conservative ward and should, I think, have made the constituency very marginally more Conservative - however, as Pete Whitehead 's notionals above make rather clear, this was totally swamped by the 1997 national swing to Labour, which more or less remained in place in 2001 and 2005. Then, the other way round, the 2010 boundary revisions added a strongly Labour area (and some more neutral territory) to the constituency - but in an election where there was a pronounced national swing to the Conservatives (even if less in London than elsewhere). And even if the revisions added more Labour voters than Conservative ones to Chipping Barnet, it still did add Conservative ones. So, in thw 2010s, Villiers was able to get votes numerically much the same as Chapman between 1979 and 1992 - but in a constituency that was now about 25% larger, and with vote percentages more closely resembling those of Maudling in the 1974 elections. The 2024 boundary revisions should have advantaged the Conservatives - it effectively (as Villiers and/or some of her close supporters had evidently realised during the boundary review) removed the Labour area that Chipping Barnet had gained in 2010, replacing it by slightly smaller historically Conservative areas. If this had been an election similar to those of the 2010s, Villiers might have expected to get as many votes as in those elections. As it was, looking at Pete Whitehead 's notional figures, this was not one of Labour's best constituencies - it got (notionally) slightly more votes than in 2019 but slightly fewer than in 2017, not quite enough by itself to win. However, in a version of Chipping Barnet which should notionally have apparently been slightly more Conservative than the 1974 version, Villiers lost enough votes not only to get the numerically lowest Conservative vote in Chipping Barnet history but also substantially the lowest Conservative percentage. The main factor looks to have been the presence of the Reform candidate - but the Reform vote was low by national standards (though high by conparison with central London and in line with other areas of outer London), and seems unlikely to have consisted only of voters who would otherwise have gone out voted Conservative. In short, the reason why the Conservative vote has generally looked relatively numerically stable over the history of Chipping Barnet looks not to be because it has resisted the general decline of Conservative fortunes in London but because the enlargement of Chipping Barnet from 1997 onwards fairly exactly balanced out against this decline (at least in numerical terms of Conservative votes). Finally, the result was certainly close enough for Villiers to be rationally able to feel that she could win the seat back again in 2028, should the local Conservative Association or the national Conservative party agree to her making the attempt. However, voters not behaving like automata, she would be unlikely to manage this simply by attracting 2024 Reform voters - she would have in practice have to count on national or local factors decreasing Labour support
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