Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2024 13:08:27 GMT
I have referred to and been helped by Peter Wilkinson 's excellent profile of the old constituency here and am particularly grateful for the background on the East Barnet wards with which I less familiar, but this is my own essay rather than a rewriting or editing.
Like many other constituencies, Chipping Barnet celebrates its Golden anniversary this year having been created in 1974. For a while it seemed as if this might be its final anniversary, as the initial proposals of the boundary commission proposed to chop it apart and rename it. The bulk of the constituency would have survived in a new ‘High Barnet & Mill Hill’ seat, but East Barnet and Barnet were to be separated (for the first time ever) with the former to be added to Southgate. The initial proposals in Barnet borough were unnecessarily drastic and messy and on the revised (and final) plans they are more moderate. The Chipping Barnet name survives with the loss of just one ward (Friern Barnet) and its replacement with another, smaller ward from Hendon (Edgwarebury) along with some other adjustments to realign with new ward boundaries.
In fact, though the Chipping Barnet name dates to 1974, the seat is recognisably the successor of the original Barnet seat which was first created in 1945 – one of the 30 or so new seats created for that election, many of them in the London suburbs – when it was carved out of the St Albans constituency. That was a Hertfordshire county constituency which included the Elstree Rural district (and for a short period, 1950-55 even extended out as far as Hatfield), but the bulk of the population and electorate was in the by then heavily built up urban districts of Barnet and East Barnet.
Labour won the inaugural contest in Barnet in 1945, when they did exceptionally well in London suburbia, but even then, only narrowly and Reginald Maudling won the expanded seat in 1950 with a majority of over 10,000. It remained safe for him despite the growth of London overspill estates in the Elstree Rural District (Borehamwood), this being offset to some extent by continued private housing development in the core areas of Barnet and East Barnet.
The absorption of Barnet and East Barnet UDs into Greater London and the London Borough of Barnet in 1964 forced the separation of these areas from the Elstree Rural District which remained in Hertfordshire. This left behind a seat which was much more compact and urban but at the same time more middle class and owner occupied and more safely Conservative – Borehamwood having been the main source of Labour support in the old Barnet seat.
As well as the whole of the former Barnet and East Barnet UDs, the ‘new’ Chipping Barnet seat incorporated areas (through the expansion of the Totteridge ward) which had formerly been in Friern Barnet and Finchley (Woodside Park) and even a small area from Hendon, so it included at least parts of all the five boroughs which had combined to form Barnet. It also meant that already by then this seat included areas formerly in Middlesex, though the boundary between Middlesex and Hertfordshire and between Greater London and Hertfordshire has shifted often in any case (the Northern part of High Barnet was itself in Middlesex before the 1880s).
Chipping Barnet was safely held by Reginald Maudling in 1974 and handed over to Sydney Chapman in 1979. He went on to enjoy large leads through the 1980s and in 1992 until a very large swing in 1997 almost wiped out his majority – indeed had the swing here been as large as in Hendon or Finchley or Southgate, this seat would have fallen then. The ward of Friern Barnet had been added that year from the former Finchley seat but this would have had negligible partisan impact as it was generally as Conservative then as the rest of the seat. This is not to be confused with the current ward of that name which covers the grottier Central and Southern parts of Friern Barnet – the former ward of the name covered the much more upmarket Northern part of that former UD, around Whetstone and Oakleigh Park.
Chapman’s majority recovered a little in 2001 and the current MP Theresa Villers took over in 2005 with another large increase in the majority, though this was down to a sharp drop in the Labour vote rather than any marked improvement in the Conservative position. In 2010 Theresa Villiers almost doubled her majority, back up to five figures, despite an unfavourable boundary change - the addition of most of the new Coppetts ward (that part not already included) which covers the Southern part of Friern Barnet and roughly corresponds to the new ward of that name. Labour topped the poll in Coppetts in every election where it existed, very comfortably in the latter elections, and it is just possible that the inclusion of this area might have changed the outcome in 1997.
From this (recent) high point in 2010, the seat has moved rapidly in Labour’s favour with sharp increases in Labour’s share in 2015 (up from 25% to 34%) and in 2017 (up to almost 46%), coming within a few hundred votes of victory in the latter year (which would have been up there with Canterbury as one of the most shocking Labour gains of that election). There was only a small swing back in 2019 leaving this as one of the most marginal Conservative defences going into the next election. It’s worth remarking that the Conservative share has not declined much in this time – from a low of 43% in 1997 to a high of 49% in 2010, it has generally hovered in the middle at around 46%. What has happened is that the non-Conservative vote has coalesced behind Labour.
The shift to Labour has been seen at the local level too. There were always some pockets of Labour support here, but they are now able to win in wards they would not have got a look in previously. Most of the gains which Labour made to take control of Barnet council in 2022 came in the wards within this seat, as most of the wards in the Hendon and Finchley seats tend to be safe for one party or another – here the Conservatives can win all the wards in a very good year and Labour can now win most of them in a good year for them, as they did in 2022.
High Barnet ward – in some ways the heart of the constituency – typifies the shift. Although clouded by ward boundary changes in 2022, this is a ward that Labour won for the first time ever and they did so comfortably (having missed one of the seats by a single vote in 2018). This ward includes two of the very wealthy village areas which characterise some parts of this seat – Monken Hadley in the East and Arkley in the West. The bulk of the population though live in High Barnet (or Chipping Barnet) itself in Edwardian Villas and terraced housing mixed with some inter-war development and new flats – the town centre here has seen better days.
Boundary changes brought in part of the large area of council housing behind Barnet General Hospital from Underhill ward, but this would not have been decisive on its own. Clearly the denizens of High Barnet itself have moved to Labour, part of a familiar pattern in London of increased ethnic diversity and a shift amongst the educated middle classes – over 50% have degrees in this ward and nearly 50% are in professional or managerial occupations. This is in fact the ‘Whitest’ ward in Chipping Barnet and the only one where White British are a majority but still nearly 30% are non-White with another 15% being ‘White Other’. The Conservatives had faced occasional challenges from Independents (in the old Hadley ward) and more recently the Lib Dems but Labour had not posed a threat until their very near miss in 2018.
Underhill ward covers effectively the Southern half of Barnet proper and is one of the few demographic and electoral outliers in the seat. Labour have had at least some representation in the ward since it was created in 2002 and have had a full slate of councillors here since 2014. They even topped the poll in 2006 and 2010, although there is some evidence of a personal vote for Anita Campbell, their sole councillor in both those years (and in 2002) who had represented the predecessor Arkley ward since 1990. Labour had also had councillors elected in Arkley in each of the elections in the 1970s – the ward was something of a misnomer as Arkley (as already mentioned) is one of the wealthiest areas of this constituency, but there are maybe only about 1,000 voters there against several thousand in ‘Underhill’ itself. Here there is a swathe of council-built housing and flats, from Ducks Island in the West to Dollis Valley in the East – the Dollis Valley estate is as grim as any in Barnet (apart from Graham Park I guess), though like most of the worst estates in the borough is being redeveloped. Consequently, nearly a quarter of housing in the ward is socially rented – far more than in any other ward here (most are under 10%).
The Northern half of the ward is more upmarket, consisting mostly of inter-war owner occupied housing with some older (and more upmarket) housing towards the centre of Barnet. This area enabled the Conservatives to remain competitive in Underhill in a good year, even without Arkley, but 2022 was not one of those, and Labour won by almost two to one then. Labour must also have carried the ward in the most recent general elections.
A short distance from the Dollis Valley estate, across Dollis Brook and separated by a small strip of countryside, is the village of Totteridge. This is an extremely wealthy area, especially the multi-million-pound mansions lining Totteridge common. It is also quite heavily Jewish – along with Arkley village, the only significant concentration of Jewish voters within the existing boundaries. It is also, unsurprisingly, heavily Conservative and Totteridge & Woodside is the only ward in the current seat which the Conservatives won outright in 2022.
As the name implies, the ward also includes Woodside Park – a less salubrious area but still well off and very middle class. There is a large Asian population here as it bleeds into North Finchley, so this is actually the least White ward in the constituency.
A third element was added to the ward in 2022, namely Millbrook Park – a new densely populated estate of mixed tenure and ethnicity, built on the site of the old Inglis Barracks. This was previously in the Mill Hill ward and therefore in the Hendon constituency so is one of the areas moving into this constituency. The population of Millbrook Park is at least projected to be larger than in Totteridge itself and it must have contributed heavily to the still substantial minority vote that Labour won in the ward in 2022.
Overall, the ward has over 50% in professional or managerial occupations and nearly 60% graduates. Just as Underhill is a demographic outlier in one way, so Totteridge is in the other.
The remaining wards are all much more average for the constituency, demographically and politically.
Immediately East of Totteridge, the other side of the Northern Line is the new ward of Whetstone, largely based on the Southern half of the old Oakleigh ward and somewhat similar to the previous Friern Barnet ward. Whetstone itself is quite densely populated and includes older Edwardian housing as well as new flats, while Oakleigh Park further out tends to consist of inter-war detached housing and includes some very wealthy streets. Labour would never have won this ward prior to 2022 but did so comfortably in those elections, winning over 50% of the vote – as clear an example as any of the long-term shifts occurring here.
Immediately to the North and likewise sandwiched between the Northern (underground) Line and the Great Northern railway line, Barnet Vale is another new ward which doesn’t really correspond to a previous ward but again takes most of its voters from the old Oakleigh with the remainder coming in from High Barnet. It bears some resemblance to the previous (pre-2002) Hadley ward and corresponds to the Hadley and Lyonsdown wards of the old East Barnet urban district.
It’s a slightly amorphous area but could be said to include the better ends of New Barnet and High Barnet. It is solidly middle-class and would have been a safe Conservative ward historically. The Conservatives did at least manage to get one councillor elected here in 2022, which is more than they managed in most of the other wards, but Labour still won the other two seats and topped the poll – again a poor omen for the long-term Conservative prospects in this constituency.
To the East of the Great Northern line are the wards of East Barnet and Brunswick Park, which are the core of the old East Barnet UD. This is distinct from Barnet ‘proper’ and differs somewhat demographically.
The proportion of professional and managerial workers and of graduates is markedly lower than in most of the Western wards and on a par with those in Underhill. They also have a lower Jewish population than is typical of the constituency but a larger ‘White Other’ population which is influenced by the extension of the Cypriot belt of Enfield into this area. The Osidge area in Brunswick Park ward indeed is functionally part of Southgate more than it is Barnet.
The election of Labour councillors in this area is not such a novel phenomenon. Labour won three of the five wards in the area in the first elections to Barnet council in 1964 – Brunswick Park itself, Cockfosters and New Barnet. Labour also won the unified East Barnet ward in 1971 and again in 1994 and 1998, assisted by some sizeable council estates in the Cockfosters area and older terraced housing in New Barnet. The enlarged Brunswick Park had less of a Labour history before they won it in 1998 but the ward had split representation from a 2012 byelection until 2022 when Labour won all three seats.
Labour won all three seats in East Barnet in 2014, lost one back to the Conservatives in 2018 and retook the third seat in 2022. The result in East Barnet was much closer in the last year than in wards like High Barnet and Whetstone, suggesting that this area is trending to Labour less than the others (if at all) – perhaps reflecting a larger white working class population here, of exactly the type which made Labour competitive in the 1970s.
Boundary changes bring in one whole ward from Hendon in an area which has little connection to the core parts of this seat. This is the ward of Edgwarebury which covers the Northern fringes of Mill Hill and Edgware. There is a tenuous link between Totteridge and the Highwoods Hill area of Mill Hill. But most of the population live to the West of the M1 in Edgware. This is the most suburban part of Edgware, North of the A41 and consists of two quite different areas. The first (and largest) is the area off Edgwarebury Lane consisting of large detached inter war houses which is heavily Jewish (over 70% in one of the output areas – over 50% in all of them). The second is the Broadfield council estate (which in contrast is less than 5% Jewish). There are some mixed areas between the M1 and the A1 including some council flats, and around Apex corner, this area also being rather un-Jewish but quite heavily Asian.
As well as the highest Jewish percentage in the new seat, it also has the highest proportion of Muslims and Blacks. It also has the lowest proportion of graduates, and the overall social stats are closer to those in East Barnet. The more upmarket areas in Edgwarebury and Highwoods Hill would be expected to dominate usually and make this a safe Conservative ward. In fact, Labour came surprisingly close in 2022, but still the Conservatives won which means it is more Conservative than average for Barnet and for this constituency.
The inclusion of this ward (together with the removal of Friern Barnet) increases the overall proportion of the population which is Jewish to nearly 10% which ranks it 6th nationally (but still considerably lower than in neighbouring Finchley, Hendon and Hertsmere).
It also contributes to an increase in the notional majority from 1,212 to over 4,000 – but not that much. The implied notional result of the area being added from Hendon gives a Conservative lead of about 500 – possibly that was all from Edgwarebury as Millbrook Park was likely close or Labour voting (I’d be interested to have bjornhattan ’s thoughts on that). But the major part of the increase is a consequence of the removal of Friern Barnet, which provided a lead of around 2,000 votes for Labour even in the low turnout local elections of 2022 and would have been higher than that in the general election. This is certainly helpful for the Conservatives but is unlikely to be decisive in the circumstances of the next election.
It may be that, as some think, the swing will be lower in London than elsewhere but even allowing for that, the underlying trends and the likely scale of Labour’s victory nationally mean they must almost certainly gain this seat for the first time, and probably will do so by a quite comfortable margin.
2019 result
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Thrasher & Rallings)
Ward map boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_122_Chipping%20Barnet_Landscape.pdf
Like many other constituencies, Chipping Barnet celebrates its Golden anniversary this year having been created in 1974. For a while it seemed as if this might be its final anniversary, as the initial proposals of the boundary commission proposed to chop it apart and rename it. The bulk of the constituency would have survived in a new ‘High Barnet & Mill Hill’ seat, but East Barnet and Barnet were to be separated (for the first time ever) with the former to be added to Southgate. The initial proposals in Barnet borough were unnecessarily drastic and messy and on the revised (and final) plans they are more moderate. The Chipping Barnet name survives with the loss of just one ward (Friern Barnet) and its replacement with another, smaller ward from Hendon (Edgwarebury) along with some other adjustments to realign with new ward boundaries.
In fact, though the Chipping Barnet name dates to 1974, the seat is recognisably the successor of the original Barnet seat which was first created in 1945 – one of the 30 or so new seats created for that election, many of them in the London suburbs – when it was carved out of the St Albans constituency. That was a Hertfordshire county constituency which included the Elstree Rural district (and for a short period, 1950-55 even extended out as far as Hatfield), but the bulk of the population and electorate was in the by then heavily built up urban districts of Barnet and East Barnet.
Labour won the inaugural contest in Barnet in 1945, when they did exceptionally well in London suburbia, but even then, only narrowly and Reginald Maudling won the expanded seat in 1950 with a majority of over 10,000. It remained safe for him despite the growth of London overspill estates in the Elstree Rural District (Borehamwood), this being offset to some extent by continued private housing development in the core areas of Barnet and East Barnet.
The absorption of Barnet and East Barnet UDs into Greater London and the London Borough of Barnet in 1964 forced the separation of these areas from the Elstree Rural District which remained in Hertfordshire. This left behind a seat which was much more compact and urban but at the same time more middle class and owner occupied and more safely Conservative – Borehamwood having been the main source of Labour support in the old Barnet seat.
As well as the whole of the former Barnet and East Barnet UDs, the ‘new’ Chipping Barnet seat incorporated areas (through the expansion of the Totteridge ward) which had formerly been in Friern Barnet and Finchley (Woodside Park) and even a small area from Hendon, so it included at least parts of all the five boroughs which had combined to form Barnet. It also meant that already by then this seat included areas formerly in Middlesex, though the boundary between Middlesex and Hertfordshire and between Greater London and Hertfordshire has shifted often in any case (the Northern part of High Barnet was itself in Middlesex before the 1880s).
Chipping Barnet was safely held by Reginald Maudling in 1974 and handed over to Sydney Chapman in 1979. He went on to enjoy large leads through the 1980s and in 1992 until a very large swing in 1997 almost wiped out his majority – indeed had the swing here been as large as in Hendon or Finchley or Southgate, this seat would have fallen then. The ward of Friern Barnet had been added that year from the former Finchley seat but this would have had negligible partisan impact as it was generally as Conservative then as the rest of the seat. This is not to be confused with the current ward of that name which covers the grottier Central and Southern parts of Friern Barnet – the former ward of the name covered the much more upmarket Northern part of that former UD, around Whetstone and Oakleigh Park.
Chapman’s majority recovered a little in 2001 and the current MP Theresa Villers took over in 2005 with another large increase in the majority, though this was down to a sharp drop in the Labour vote rather than any marked improvement in the Conservative position. In 2010 Theresa Villiers almost doubled her majority, back up to five figures, despite an unfavourable boundary change - the addition of most of the new Coppetts ward (that part not already included) which covers the Southern part of Friern Barnet and roughly corresponds to the new ward of that name. Labour topped the poll in Coppetts in every election where it existed, very comfortably in the latter elections, and it is just possible that the inclusion of this area might have changed the outcome in 1997.
From this (recent) high point in 2010, the seat has moved rapidly in Labour’s favour with sharp increases in Labour’s share in 2015 (up from 25% to 34%) and in 2017 (up to almost 46%), coming within a few hundred votes of victory in the latter year (which would have been up there with Canterbury as one of the most shocking Labour gains of that election). There was only a small swing back in 2019 leaving this as one of the most marginal Conservative defences going into the next election. It’s worth remarking that the Conservative share has not declined much in this time – from a low of 43% in 1997 to a high of 49% in 2010, it has generally hovered in the middle at around 46%. What has happened is that the non-Conservative vote has coalesced behind Labour.
The shift to Labour has been seen at the local level too. There were always some pockets of Labour support here, but they are now able to win in wards they would not have got a look in previously. Most of the gains which Labour made to take control of Barnet council in 2022 came in the wards within this seat, as most of the wards in the Hendon and Finchley seats tend to be safe for one party or another – here the Conservatives can win all the wards in a very good year and Labour can now win most of them in a good year for them, as they did in 2022.
High Barnet ward – in some ways the heart of the constituency – typifies the shift. Although clouded by ward boundary changes in 2022, this is a ward that Labour won for the first time ever and they did so comfortably (having missed one of the seats by a single vote in 2018). This ward includes two of the very wealthy village areas which characterise some parts of this seat – Monken Hadley in the East and Arkley in the West. The bulk of the population though live in High Barnet (or Chipping Barnet) itself in Edwardian Villas and terraced housing mixed with some inter-war development and new flats – the town centre here has seen better days.
Boundary changes brought in part of the large area of council housing behind Barnet General Hospital from Underhill ward, but this would not have been decisive on its own. Clearly the denizens of High Barnet itself have moved to Labour, part of a familiar pattern in London of increased ethnic diversity and a shift amongst the educated middle classes – over 50% have degrees in this ward and nearly 50% are in professional or managerial occupations. This is in fact the ‘Whitest’ ward in Chipping Barnet and the only one where White British are a majority but still nearly 30% are non-White with another 15% being ‘White Other’. The Conservatives had faced occasional challenges from Independents (in the old Hadley ward) and more recently the Lib Dems but Labour had not posed a threat until their very near miss in 2018.
Underhill ward covers effectively the Southern half of Barnet proper and is one of the few demographic and electoral outliers in the seat. Labour have had at least some representation in the ward since it was created in 2002 and have had a full slate of councillors here since 2014. They even topped the poll in 2006 and 2010, although there is some evidence of a personal vote for Anita Campbell, their sole councillor in both those years (and in 2002) who had represented the predecessor Arkley ward since 1990. Labour had also had councillors elected in Arkley in each of the elections in the 1970s – the ward was something of a misnomer as Arkley (as already mentioned) is one of the wealthiest areas of this constituency, but there are maybe only about 1,000 voters there against several thousand in ‘Underhill’ itself. Here there is a swathe of council-built housing and flats, from Ducks Island in the West to Dollis Valley in the East – the Dollis Valley estate is as grim as any in Barnet (apart from Graham Park I guess), though like most of the worst estates in the borough is being redeveloped. Consequently, nearly a quarter of housing in the ward is socially rented – far more than in any other ward here (most are under 10%).
The Northern half of the ward is more upmarket, consisting mostly of inter-war owner occupied housing with some older (and more upmarket) housing towards the centre of Barnet. This area enabled the Conservatives to remain competitive in Underhill in a good year, even without Arkley, but 2022 was not one of those, and Labour won by almost two to one then. Labour must also have carried the ward in the most recent general elections.
A short distance from the Dollis Valley estate, across Dollis Brook and separated by a small strip of countryside, is the village of Totteridge. This is an extremely wealthy area, especially the multi-million-pound mansions lining Totteridge common. It is also quite heavily Jewish – along with Arkley village, the only significant concentration of Jewish voters within the existing boundaries. It is also, unsurprisingly, heavily Conservative and Totteridge & Woodside is the only ward in the current seat which the Conservatives won outright in 2022.
As the name implies, the ward also includes Woodside Park – a less salubrious area but still well off and very middle class. There is a large Asian population here as it bleeds into North Finchley, so this is actually the least White ward in the constituency.
A third element was added to the ward in 2022, namely Millbrook Park – a new densely populated estate of mixed tenure and ethnicity, built on the site of the old Inglis Barracks. This was previously in the Mill Hill ward and therefore in the Hendon constituency so is one of the areas moving into this constituency. The population of Millbrook Park is at least projected to be larger than in Totteridge itself and it must have contributed heavily to the still substantial minority vote that Labour won in the ward in 2022.
Overall, the ward has over 50% in professional or managerial occupations and nearly 60% graduates. Just as Underhill is a demographic outlier in one way, so Totteridge is in the other.
The remaining wards are all much more average for the constituency, demographically and politically.
Immediately East of Totteridge, the other side of the Northern Line is the new ward of Whetstone, largely based on the Southern half of the old Oakleigh ward and somewhat similar to the previous Friern Barnet ward. Whetstone itself is quite densely populated and includes older Edwardian housing as well as new flats, while Oakleigh Park further out tends to consist of inter-war detached housing and includes some very wealthy streets. Labour would never have won this ward prior to 2022 but did so comfortably in those elections, winning over 50% of the vote – as clear an example as any of the long-term shifts occurring here.
Immediately to the North and likewise sandwiched between the Northern (underground) Line and the Great Northern railway line, Barnet Vale is another new ward which doesn’t really correspond to a previous ward but again takes most of its voters from the old Oakleigh with the remainder coming in from High Barnet. It bears some resemblance to the previous (pre-2002) Hadley ward and corresponds to the Hadley and Lyonsdown wards of the old East Barnet urban district.
It’s a slightly amorphous area but could be said to include the better ends of New Barnet and High Barnet. It is solidly middle-class and would have been a safe Conservative ward historically. The Conservatives did at least manage to get one councillor elected here in 2022, which is more than they managed in most of the other wards, but Labour still won the other two seats and topped the poll – again a poor omen for the long-term Conservative prospects in this constituency.
To the East of the Great Northern line are the wards of East Barnet and Brunswick Park, which are the core of the old East Barnet UD. This is distinct from Barnet ‘proper’ and differs somewhat demographically.
The proportion of professional and managerial workers and of graduates is markedly lower than in most of the Western wards and on a par with those in Underhill. They also have a lower Jewish population than is typical of the constituency but a larger ‘White Other’ population which is influenced by the extension of the Cypriot belt of Enfield into this area. The Osidge area in Brunswick Park ward indeed is functionally part of Southgate more than it is Barnet.
The election of Labour councillors in this area is not such a novel phenomenon. Labour won three of the five wards in the area in the first elections to Barnet council in 1964 – Brunswick Park itself, Cockfosters and New Barnet. Labour also won the unified East Barnet ward in 1971 and again in 1994 and 1998, assisted by some sizeable council estates in the Cockfosters area and older terraced housing in New Barnet. The enlarged Brunswick Park had less of a Labour history before they won it in 1998 but the ward had split representation from a 2012 byelection until 2022 when Labour won all three seats.
Labour won all three seats in East Barnet in 2014, lost one back to the Conservatives in 2018 and retook the third seat in 2022. The result in East Barnet was much closer in the last year than in wards like High Barnet and Whetstone, suggesting that this area is trending to Labour less than the others (if at all) – perhaps reflecting a larger white working class population here, of exactly the type which made Labour competitive in the 1970s.
Boundary changes bring in one whole ward from Hendon in an area which has little connection to the core parts of this seat. This is the ward of Edgwarebury which covers the Northern fringes of Mill Hill and Edgware. There is a tenuous link between Totteridge and the Highwoods Hill area of Mill Hill. But most of the population live to the West of the M1 in Edgware. This is the most suburban part of Edgware, North of the A41 and consists of two quite different areas. The first (and largest) is the area off Edgwarebury Lane consisting of large detached inter war houses which is heavily Jewish (over 70% in one of the output areas – over 50% in all of them). The second is the Broadfield council estate (which in contrast is less than 5% Jewish). There are some mixed areas between the M1 and the A1 including some council flats, and around Apex corner, this area also being rather un-Jewish but quite heavily Asian.
As well as the highest Jewish percentage in the new seat, it also has the highest proportion of Muslims and Blacks. It also has the lowest proportion of graduates, and the overall social stats are closer to those in East Barnet. The more upmarket areas in Edgwarebury and Highwoods Hill would be expected to dominate usually and make this a safe Conservative ward. In fact, Labour came surprisingly close in 2022, but still the Conservatives won which means it is more Conservative than average for Barnet and for this constituency.
The inclusion of this ward (together with the removal of Friern Barnet) increases the overall proportion of the population which is Jewish to nearly 10% which ranks it 6th nationally (but still considerably lower than in neighbouring Finchley, Hendon and Hertsmere).
It also contributes to an increase in the notional majority from 1,212 to over 4,000 – but not that much. The implied notional result of the area being added from Hendon gives a Conservative lead of about 500 – possibly that was all from Edgwarebury as Millbrook Park was likely close or Labour voting (I’d be interested to have bjornhattan ’s thoughts on that). But the major part of the increase is a consequence of the removal of Friern Barnet, which provided a lead of around 2,000 votes for Labour even in the low turnout local elections of 2022 and would have been higher than that in the general election. This is certainly helpful for the Conservatives but is unlikely to be decisive in the circumstances of the next election.
It may be that, as some think, the swing will be lower in London than elsewhere but even allowing for that, the underlying trends and the likely scale of Labour’s victory nationally mean they must almost certainly gain this seat for the first time, and probably will do so by a quite comfortable margin.
2019 result
| Theresa Villers | Con | 25745 | 44.7% |
| Emma Whysall | Lab | 24533 | 42.6% |
| Isabelle Parasram | LD | 5932 | 10.3% |
| Gabrielle Bailey | Grn | 1288 | 2.2% |
| John Sheffield | Oth | 71 | 0.1% |
| Majority | 1212 | 2.1% |
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Thrasher & Rallings)
| Con | 27777 | 47.5% |
| Lab | 23568 | 40.3% |
| LD | 5745 | 9.8% |
| Grn | 1261 | 2.2% |
| Oth | 71 | 0.1% |
| Majority | 4209 | 7.2% |
Ward map boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_122_Chipping%20Barnet_Landscape.pdf
