stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:33:02 GMT
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 25, 2024 8:31:12 GMT
Reform have selected Tony Sharp as their PPC.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Apr 25, 2024 9:49:09 GMT
Lib Dem PPC is Rachel Bentley, currently cllr for North Bermondsey and the deputy Group Leader of the council group. Whilst not a target exactly, this would be one of the seats where I imagine we will be wanting to keep in touch so to speak, with an eye on possibilities when there is a Labour government
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 25, 2024 9:52:11 GMT
Reform have selected Tony Sharp as their PPC. When I saw this I wondered if it might be the same Tony Sharp who I knew at college, as he was living in Bermondsey / Old Southwark when I rather lost contact with him ... After doing a bit of digging I find that it is - see news item below. southwarknews.co.uk/news/politics/local-election-2018-ukip-stands-four-candidates-across-southwark/This is something of a surprise, as when I first knew him he was a rough-hewn mature student originally from Huyton (then living in a tower block in Everton) who came to Balliol via Ruskin and an USDAW union background. He did later become a management consultant with Coopers & Lybrand and introduced me to a City ward club, but I really didn't think his trajectory would reach this point. He will be 71 years old now, quite late for a first run for Parliament. |
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Post by batman on Apr 25, 2024 13:59:37 GMT
Lib Dem PPC is Rachel Bentley, currently cllr for North Bermondsey and the deputy Group Leader of the council group. Whilst not a target exactly, this would be one of the seats where I imagine we will be wanting to keep in touch so to speak, with an eye on possibilities when there is a Labour government I did the profile of this constituency for the Almanac here. There are several wards where there remains good support for the Lib Dems, especially in the more upmarket developments which tend, though by no means exclusively, to be near the river. Labour will certainly feel the loss of Newington and North Walworth, which are stronghold wards for them, but should be OK in currrent circumstances with their strong lead in South Bermondsey , Rotherhithe & most of all Chaucer wards although the Lib Dems should still have a bit of a lead in Borough & Bankside, and maybe although not necessarily by that much in St George's as well, with the remaining wards probably being pretty competitive all told. As you say, if Labour recedes and the Lib Dems pick up, the seat is potentially dangerous on these boundaries for Labour in the future. Coyle seems to be settling back into his work fairly well now. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 25, 2024 18:29:43 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | | | 1945 | 24.2% | 73.4% | 2.3% | | | 1950 | 20.9% | 73.0% | 5.6% | | | 1951 | 20.9% | 75.7% | 3.4% | | | 1955 | 20.2% | 73.8% | 3.6% | | | 1959 | 27.2% | 71.6% | | 1.3% | | 1964 | 23.4% | 74.8% | | 1.8% | | 1966 | 20.9% | 77.4% | | 1.8% |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1970 | 25.3% | 73.2% | | | | 1974 | 16.9% | 68.7% | 10.3% | 4.1% | | 1974 | 13.7% | 73.5% | 8.0% | 4.8% | | 1979 | 24.5% | 64.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | | 1983 | 12.6% | 34.0% | 51.2% | 1.4% | | 1987 | 12.3% | 38.9% | 48.5% | | | 1992 | 10.3% | 30.3% | 57.0% | 1.4% |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | Green | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 6.7% | 36.4% | 52.7% | 1.3% | | | 2001 | 7.9% | 28.1% | 59.2% | | 2.0% | | 2005 | 13.4% | 30.4% | 48.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | | 2010 | 18.7% | 27.3% | 48.6% | 0.3% | 1.6% | | 2015 | 13.0% | 40.1% | 36.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | | 2017 | 14.4% | 49.6% | 33.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | | 2019 | 16.8% | 49.6% | 31.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
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Post by markgoodair on May 29, 2024 19:32:50 GMT
Can the Liberal Democrats squeeze the Tory vote here to be in with a shout against Labour?
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Post by jakegb on May 29, 2024 19:44:16 GMT
Can the Liberal Democrats squeeze the Tory vote here to be in with a shout against Labour? Very much doubt it. a) No Simon Hughes b) B&OS is a very different type of seat (demographically speaking) to most of their middle class suburbia targets. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 29, 2024 20:11:07 GMT
Can the Liberal Democrats squeeze the Tory vote here to be in with a shout against Labour? Just a small note that the Tory percentage here has risen and the Lib Dem percentage fallen in both of the last two elections. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2024 10:24:47 GMT
B&OS is one of the best areas for a pub crawl. I was here with a friend on Saturday. The George, The Rake, The Market Porter and The Angel are all excellent establishments. If possible, please visit them. Here would be a decent area for another Vote UK London meetup.
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Post by batman on May 30, 2024 10:52:57 GMT
And the Royal Oak which I mentioned in the constituency profile, and also the Lord Clyde. Both a short walk from Borough station.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Jun 8, 2024 20:10:10 GMT
Rachel Elizabeth BENTLEY - Liberal Democrats Piers CORBYN - Independent Neil COYLE - Labour Party Barry Colin DUCKETT - Independent Susan Elizabeth HUNTER - Green Party Jonathan ILIFF - Conservative Party Niko OMILANA - No Description Tony SHARP - Reform UK
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 8, 2024 20:15:53 GMT
Piers Corbyn was a Southwark councillor many years ago for the old Burgess ward. Most of that area will not be in this seat as it is part of the area moved (back) to Peckham.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jun 8, 2024 21:59:18 GMT
Piers Corbyn was a Southwark councillor many years ago for the old Burgess ward. Most of that area will not be in this seat as it is part of the area moved (back) to Peckham. I remember Piers Corbyn from NUS in the mid-1970s. He was something of a laughing stock at NUS conferences. He may have appeared a nutter back then but nothing compared to how he turned out. Conspiracy theorist, holocaust/COVID/you name it, denier, etc. etc. Amazingly, in comparative terms, Jeremy turned out to be the sensible one of the family. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jun 14, 2024 11:46:26 GMT
Does Piers Corbyn still do his long range weather forecasting?
Not sure of his methodology or how accurate he is but I know he used to place bets on it too.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2024 15:01:06 GMT
Does Piers Corbyn still do his long range weather forecasting? Not sure of his methodology or how accurate he is but I know he used to place bets on it too. As far as I know, it was his “proper job” albeit that I don’t know if he was employed or self-employed. Either way, He’s past retirement age so I doubt it. Unless he’s still obsessed with it as a hobby or to do with conspiracy theories. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:33:33 GMT
This seat is where the Vote UK forum meet-up will happen (and should always happen, IMHO).
I would be an awful campaigner in this seat since there are too many good pubs to stop at.
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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 19:34:07 GMT
I did a canvass session here in 2015 & it turned out to be successful. I did of course go to a pub afterwards.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jul 5, 2024 14:25:39 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
Member is Online
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Post by iain on Jul 10, 2024 23:58:06 GMT
Based on the Rallings & Thrasher notional the Labour vote fell by 5% whilst the Lib Dems fell by 7%. In reality their notional was a bit generous to the Lib Dems, and I think it was more like a 7% drop for Labour versus 4% for the Lib Dems.
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