stb12
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Watford
Mar 13, 2024 21:29:42 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:29:42 GMT
Watford
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 15:47:30 GMT
Link to profile2021 Census, new boundariesAge 65+ 12.7% 498/575 Owner occupied 57.0% 440/575 Private rented 27.5% 84/575 Social rented 15.5% 270/575 White 61.6% 500/575 Black 6.2% 111/575 Asian 24.0% 43/575 Managerial & professional 37.4% 168/575 Routine & Semi-routine 19.9% 422/575 Degree level 41.2% 97/575 No qualifications 15.6% 397/575 Students 6.9% 198/575 2019 General Election| Con | 26,421 | 45.5% | | Lab | 21,988 | 37.9% | | LD | 9,323 | 16.1% | | Grn | 333 | 0.6% | | | | | | Majority | 4,433 | 7.6% |
Watford consists of 77.4% of Watford 7.6% of Hertsmere Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_104_Watford_Portrait.pdfNotional result 2019 (Rallings / Thrasher) | Con | 20285 | 42.0% | | Lab | 18985 | 39.3% | | LD | 8570 | 17.7% | | Green | 125 | 0.3% | | Oth | 333 | 0.7% | | | | |
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| | | Maj | 1300 | 2.7% |
Candidates: Conservative - Dean Russell (incumbent - unconfirmed) Labour - Matt Turmaine - local councillor for Holywell and Parliamentary candidate in 2015 Lib Dem - Ian Stotesbury - local councillor for Callowland and Parliamentary candidate in 2017 and 2019 Reform UK - Gary Ling - Former Conservative councillor for Oxhey and Mayoral candidate in 2002
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 27, 2024 9:17:46 GMT
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF | Grn | | | | | | | | | 1974 | 34.1% | 39.4% | 25.3% | 1.3% | | | 1974 | 34.7% | 43.0% | 20.9% | 1.4% | | | 1979 | 47.6% | 38.8% | 12.7% | 0.9% | | | 1983 | 47.4% | 27.0% | 25.4% | | | | 1987 | 48.2% | 29.8% | 22.0% | | | | 1992 | 47.8% | 35.0% | 16.0% | | 1.0% |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | Grn | BNP | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 34.6% | 45.3% | 17.0% | 2.7% | | | | 2001 | 33.0% | 45.6% | 17.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | | | 2005 | 29.7% | 34.7% | 30.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | | | 2010 | 33.3% | 29.1% | 31.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | | 2015 | 41.4% | 28.9% | 17.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | | | 2017 | 43.3% | 44.3% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | | | 2019 | 42.0% | 39.3% | 17.7% | | | |
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Watford
Jun 3, 2024 21:13:24 GMT
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Post by hempie on Jun 3, 2024 21:13:24 GMT
The Green candidate will be Arran Bowen-la-Grange
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Post by hempie on Jun 7, 2024 16:32:29 GMT
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jul 2, 2024 21:44:22 GMT
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 3, 2024 7:45:41 GMT
The link for the Labour leaflet is the same as the Lib Dems??? |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jul 3, 2024 7:56:45 GMT
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Post by batman on Jul 3, 2024 8:52:21 GMT
To be perfectly honest I'm a bit surprised a poll was deemed necessary for this seat. Should be very straightforward for Labour.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
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Watford
Jul 3, 2024 9:07:48 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Jul 3, 2024 9:07:48 GMT
To be perfectly honest I'm a bit surprised a poll was deemed necessary for this seat. Should be very straightforward for Labour. It’s Tory held so I felt at risk seats for them were worth a poll even if looking like certain losses as there’s always even the very slight chance of a quick recovery or incumbency factoring in Safe to say now no such surprises are likely to transpire and there’s probably even going to be safe seats falling where a poll has been missed |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 3, 2024 11:56:08 GMT
To be perfectly honest I'm a bit surprised a poll was deemed necessary for this seat. Should be very straightforward for Labour. Yes, a bit like Gloucester and Portsmouth South, the LD strength at local level does not translate to a GE (at least when the Tories are in government). |
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Post by heslingtonian on Sept 9, 2024 19:22:11 GMT
In the end this seat wasn't quite the blowout for Labour that many anticipated. It remains a seat the Conservatives will probably need to win to form a Government.
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Watford
Sept 10, 2024 8:23:59 GMT
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Post by batman on Sept 10, 2024 8:23:59 GMT
And one they have won in all their winning years since 1970.
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Post by batman on Sept 10, 2024 8:33:39 GMT
Many of Labour’s more muted or poorest results were in constituencies with strong Muslim populations. This is a rare seat in this region to which this applies. Just about the only other one is Peterborough which was a way-below-average result especially when compared with NW Cambridgeshire next door.
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 8:43:00 GMT
Some people on UK Polling Report thought the Lib Dems would win this in 2015. I gave them Wat for  |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Sept 10, 2024 9:31:36 GMT
In the end this seat wasn't quite the blowout for Labour that many anticipated. It remains a seat the Conservatives will probably need to win to form a Government. Also must surely be a Lib Dem target seat now, if they end up opposing the Labour government a bit |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 10, 2024 10:07:43 GMT
In the end this seat wasn't quite the blowout for Labour that many anticipated. It remains a seat the Conservatives will probably need to win to form a Government. Also must surely be a Lib Dem target seat now, if they end up opposing the Labour government a bit The local election results this year were similar to those in Hazel Grove. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 10, 2024 12:14:54 GMT
Many of Labour’s more muted or poorest results were in constituencies with strong Muslim populations. This is a rare seat in this region to which this applies. Just about the only other one is Peterborough which was a way-below-average result especially when compared with NW Cambridgeshire next door. Yes, you don't need to look any further than the Workers Party saving their deposit here really. LibDems may have won some Muslim support as well (this has certainly been the case locally) As for whether this will continue going forward, who knows? |
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