Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 8, 2023 12:29:38 GMT
There has been a Watford constituency since the major reform of Parliamentary constituencies in 1885 though for the first half of this period it was a county seat including much besides the town of Watford itself.
Before 1918 it covered the whole of the Western edge of Hertfordshire, including Hemel Hempstead and extending as far as Tring. This area was removed that year, but the seat continued to include a substantial hinterland in the South West of the county including the Watford Rural district and surrounding towns like Bushey and Rickmansworth. Watford was a pretty safe Conservative seat in this period being lost only in 1906 to the Liberals and in 1945 to Labour.
In 1950 though the seat lost the hinterland and became a borough constituency in a form that is roughly recognisable today, though from 1950 to 1983 it covered only the borough of Watford and since 1983 has included a few wards from outside. Watford borough constituency has since then been close to being a bellwether seat, though Labour won it in 1951 and rather against the odds in 1970. The Conservatives gained the seat in 1955 and it has otherwise switched in each of the major ‘sea-change’ elections – to Labour in 1964 and 1997 and to the Conservatives in 1979 and 2010.
The sources of Labour support here are not difficult to discern. This old market town developed a substantial industrial base in the 19th century, principally printing and brewing. There are large areas of Victorian terraced housing in the old core of the town, in the wards of Central and Vicarage and in Callowland in North Watford. There was another growth spurt in the inter-war years with the Harebreaks council estate being constructed to the North of Callowland (mainly in Leggatts ward ) and swathes of semi-detached housing in the outer North of the town, in the areas of Garston and Leavesden. Also, at this time a very upmarket residential area developed around Cassiobury Park in the North West of the town, covering the present-day wards of Nascot and Park. Post WW2 development tended to take the form of council housing with large estates being built at Holywell in West Watford, Meriden in Garston and Woodside in Leavesden.
There has been a longstanding Pakistani population in West Watford, originally concentrated in Vicarage ward but now present in sizeable numbers throughout the borough. More recently other ethnic minorities have grown in numbers so that by 2021 a third of the population was non-white and including significant numbers of Indians and Blacks as well. More recently still there has been a large influx of ‘white other’ principally Eastern Europeans to add to the existing and longstanding Italian and Irish communities in the town. The most ethnically diverse areas are in Central and West Watford and in Callowland and Leggatts in North Watford, but also increasingly in some of the more upmarket areas. The Northern peripheral areas of Garston and Leavesden retain a whiter working-class character and this has had the predictable electoral consequences.
Thirty or forty years ago, the Conservative support was heavily concentrated in the middle-class wards of Nascot and Park and while these would still clearly be their best areas in general elections, they will be nothing like so monolithic as in the past. In the same period, the peripheral council estate wards like Meriden and Woodside have moved from being the strongest Labour wards in the borough to wards they now struggle to carry in a general election (the Conservatives notably won both these wards for the first time ever in the 2015 local elections on the same day as the general). At the same time Labour has strengthened its grip hugely on the more ethnically diverse areas, especially in Vicarage ward which includes the Watford FC football ground and in the neighbouring ward of Holywell.
Over the last twenty years the Liberal Democrats have established a remarkable level of dominance at local level, firstly by winning the Mayoralty in 2002 (which they have held ever since) and then winning most of the council seats. They currently hold all the seats in 8 of 12 wards and split representation in another two, leaving Labour dominant only in Vicarage, Holywel. They have basically taken over the Conservative vote in all the middle-class areas. However, apart from making this seat a three-way marginal in 2005 and 2010 they have not successfully translated this local support to general elections and their vote has collapsed since 2010.
Watford had become undersized by 1983 and gained a large tract of territory to the North of the town from the Three Rivers and St Albans districts. The 1997 boundary changes removed the St Albans wards but brought in more from Three Rivers including two wards to the South of Watford in Carpenders Park and Oxhey Hall, both predominantly middle-class owner-occupied areas. It’s clear that the Three Rivers wards, which accounted for between a fifth and a quarter of the total electorate – nearly 20,000 voters in all - gave the Conservatives an important boost here in general elections, to the extent that they most likely accounted for the entire Conservative majority in 2017.
Now all these voters are removed and replaced by just one ward from Hertsmere in the form of Bushey North. This ward contains areas distinct from most of Bushey and with strong connections to Watford and close to the town centre so makes a very logical addition. The political balance in Bushey North is similar to that in the Three Rivers wards being removed - Lib Dem locally, Conservative nationally (probably with a bit of Labour potential which isn't realised in local elections - the old Mill ward which forms the core was a reliable Labour ward on the old Bushey Urban District council – the southern part of the ward around Aldenham Road is more prosperous and resembles (both demographically and politically) the Oxhey ward of Watford with which it forms a contiguous urban development).
The crucial difference is that there are far fewer electors - about five and a half thousand - so as a counterbalance to Watford it is far less potent than those areas departing.
There is much less chance of Bushey North outvoting Watford as the proportion of voters in the constituency within Watford borough rises from 77% to 92%.
An already highly vulnerable seat becomes signiifcantly more vulnerable - the already modest majority reduced to below 2,000.
The Conservative majority recovered a little in 2019 but the swing was well below average and this seat is again clearly the main Labour target within Hertfordshire with a percentage Tory lead now well below the national average. If Labour are to come close to winning a majority (or even become the largest party) again Watford will be an essential gain for them.
Before 1918 it covered the whole of the Western edge of Hertfordshire, including Hemel Hempstead and extending as far as Tring. This area was removed that year, but the seat continued to include a substantial hinterland in the South West of the county including the Watford Rural district and surrounding towns like Bushey and Rickmansworth. Watford was a pretty safe Conservative seat in this period being lost only in 1906 to the Liberals and in 1945 to Labour.
In 1950 though the seat lost the hinterland and became a borough constituency in a form that is roughly recognisable today, though from 1950 to 1983 it covered only the borough of Watford and since 1983 has included a few wards from outside. Watford borough constituency has since then been close to being a bellwether seat, though Labour won it in 1951 and rather against the odds in 1970. The Conservatives gained the seat in 1955 and it has otherwise switched in each of the major ‘sea-change’ elections – to Labour in 1964 and 1997 and to the Conservatives in 1979 and 2010.
The sources of Labour support here are not difficult to discern. This old market town developed a substantial industrial base in the 19th century, principally printing and brewing. There are large areas of Victorian terraced housing in the old core of the town, in the wards of Central and Vicarage and in Callowland in North Watford. There was another growth spurt in the inter-war years with the Harebreaks council estate being constructed to the North of Callowland (mainly in Leggatts ward ) and swathes of semi-detached housing in the outer North of the town, in the areas of Garston and Leavesden. Also, at this time a very upmarket residential area developed around Cassiobury Park in the North West of the town, covering the present-day wards of Nascot and Park. Post WW2 development tended to take the form of council housing with large estates being built at Holywell in West Watford, Meriden in Garston and Woodside in Leavesden.
There has been a longstanding Pakistani population in West Watford, originally concentrated in Vicarage ward but now present in sizeable numbers throughout the borough. More recently other ethnic minorities have grown in numbers so that by 2021 a third of the population was non-white and including significant numbers of Indians and Blacks as well. More recently still there has been a large influx of ‘white other’ principally Eastern Europeans to add to the existing and longstanding Italian and Irish communities in the town. The most ethnically diverse areas are in Central and West Watford and in Callowland and Leggatts in North Watford, but also increasingly in some of the more upmarket areas. The Northern peripheral areas of Garston and Leavesden retain a whiter working-class character and this has had the predictable electoral consequences.
Thirty or forty years ago, the Conservative support was heavily concentrated in the middle-class wards of Nascot and Park and while these would still clearly be their best areas in general elections, they will be nothing like so monolithic as in the past. In the same period, the peripheral council estate wards like Meriden and Woodside have moved from being the strongest Labour wards in the borough to wards they now struggle to carry in a general election (the Conservatives notably won both these wards for the first time ever in the 2015 local elections on the same day as the general). At the same time Labour has strengthened its grip hugely on the more ethnically diverse areas, especially in Vicarage ward which includes the Watford FC football ground and in the neighbouring ward of Holywell.
Over the last twenty years the Liberal Democrats have established a remarkable level of dominance at local level, firstly by winning the Mayoralty in 2002 (which they have held ever since) and then winning most of the council seats. They currently hold all the seats in 8 of 12 wards and split representation in another two, leaving Labour dominant only in Vicarage, Holywel. They have basically taken over the Conservative vote in all the middle-class areas. However, apart from making this seat a three-way marginal in 2005 and 2010 they have not successfully translated this local support to general elections and their vote has collapsed since 2010.
Watford had become undersized by 1983 and gained a large tract of territory to the North of the town from the Three Rivers and St Albans districts. The 1997 boundary changes removed the St Albans wards but brought in more from Three Rivers including two wards to the South of Watford in Carpenders Park and Oxhey Hall, both predominantly middle-class owner-occupied areas. It’s clear that the Three Rivers wards, which accounted for between a fifth and a quarter of the total electorate – nearly 20,000 voters in all - gave the Conservatives an important boost here in general elections, to the extent that they most likely accounted for the entire Conservative majority in 2017.
Now all these voters are removed and replaced by just one ward from Hertsmere in the form of Bushey North. This ward contains areas distinct from most of Bushey and with strong connections to Watford and close to the town centre so makes a very logical addition. The political balance in Bushey North is similar to that in the Three Rivers wards being removed - Lib Dem locally, Conservative nationally (probably with a bit of Labour potential which isn't realised in local elections - the old Mill ward which forms the core was a reliable Labour ward on the old Bushey Urban District council – the southern part of the ward around Aldenham Road is more prosperous and resembles (both demographically and politically) the Oxhey ward of Watford with which it forms a contiguous urban development).
The crucial difference is that there are far fewer electors - about five and a half thousand - so as a counterbalance to Watford it is far less potent than those areas departing.
There is much less chance of Bushey North outvoting Watford as the proportion of voters in the constituency within Watford borough rises from 77% to 92%.
An already highly vulnerable seat becomes signiifcantly more vulnerable - the already modest majority reduced to below 2,000.
The Conservative majority recovered a little in 2019 but the swing was well below average and this seat is again clearly the main Labour target within Hertfordshire with a percentage Tory lead now well below the national average. If Labour are to come close to winning a majority (or even become the largest party) again Watford will be an essential gain for them.
