Thurrock

[stb12]

Thurrock

[John Chanin]

Link to profile

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF
1974	23.6%	55.1%	21.3%
1974	22.6%	58.4%	19.0%
1979	37.1%	51.0%	9.0%	2.0%
1983	36.4%	38.2%	21.8%
1987	43.0%	39.9%	17.1%
1992	44.7%	44.7%	9.7%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP	BNP	Grn
1997	27.6%	62.0%	8.6%	1.8%
2001	30.9%	54.9%	10.8%	3.4%
2005	33.8%	46.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.7%
2010	37.9%	35.9%	10.7%	7.4%	7.6%
2015	34.5%	32.4%	1.3%	31.1%
2017	40.4%	38.4%	1.6%	19.7%
2019	59.9%	33.0%	3.1%			1.7%

[hempie]

SOPN:

www.thurrock.gov.uk/sites/default/files/assets/documents/20240704-ukparliament-thur-sopn-poll-polling-v01.pdf

7 candidates:
5 main parties plus Workers Party and an Independent

[Deleted]

UKIP got 31% of the vote in 2015 - I wonder how seriously Reform will target this. Could Frage shifting from Kent to Easex this election help his party across the county?

[greenhert]

Some of this was Tim Aker's personal vote, though, as also shown in 2017.

[AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken]

With the Conservatives bankrupting the council and losing 10 of 11 seats at the local elections Labour will give it a good shot. Jackie Doyle-Price has tried her hardest to distance herself from the shambles the Conservatives caused at the council despite her being the partner of one of those very councillors who also works for her. Any increase in Reform vote share will probably be to the detriment of the Conservatives. This could be a Labour gain with a few hundred votes. Expect the election literature will be full of anti-immigrant dog whistles.

[observer]

Jun 8, 2024 12:40:34 GMT AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken said:

With the Conservatives bankrupting the council and losing 10 of 11 seats at the local elections Labour will give it a good shot. Jackie Doyle-Price has tried her hardest to distance herself from the shambles the Conservatives caused at the council despite her being the partner of one of those very councillors who also works for her. Any increase in Reform vote share will probably be to the detriment of the Conservatives. This could be a Labour gain with a few hundred votes. Expect the election literature will be full of anti-immigrant dog whistles.

I'd be surprised if there are any leaflets that are anti-immigrant. Anti-immigration probably

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2024 10:28:20 GMT greenhert said:

Some of this was Tim Aker's personal vote, though, as also shown in 2017.

How did he did so well here, beyond the UKIP rosette?

[LDCaerdydd]

It was one of the few places they ran a concentrated campaign, they identified local issues and campaigned on them (not just Brexit). He had a full time press officer (*cough* campaign coordinator) in the seat.

He looked pretty shell shocked not to win on the night.

[AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken]

Jun 8, 2024 15:50:37 GMT @weld said:

Jun 8, 2024 10:28:20 GMT greenhert said:

Some of this was Tim Aker's personal vote, though, as also shown in 2017.

How did he did so well here, beyond the UKIP rosette?

Tim Aker was a Conservative Party activist in Thurrock - he was centre of many Conservative campaigns in Thurrock before he switched to UKIP. An effective activist not afraid to knock on doors and debate. Considered local he and others built up a very good UKIP campaigning machine based on how the Conservatives ran campaigns with many former Conservative activists who knew how to run all year round election campaigns, how to get publicity, how to recruit members and activists and keep them busy campaigning - including good local council elections - something lacking in other UKIP areas where they just popped up at election times. With the decline of the BNP there was something of an 'arms race' with the Conservatives on who could be the most right wing. They had a policy of good local election campaigning builds the foundations of general election and European election success.

[right]

Thurrock was known as one of the stand out local parties in UKIP

In truth it would be seen as a reasonably solid local party among the big three, that was quite exceptional for UKIP except perhaps in the run up to 2015

[stb12]

I’ve removed and readded the poll here due to some talk of this being a Reform target

[Deleted]

Regional boost for Reform because Farage Is standing in Essex and not Kent. I think Reform will win this, along with Castle Point and Clacton in Essex alone.

[batman]

I don't think so. I think they split the right-wing vote & Labour wins. Perhaps they get second ahead of the Tories but the Tory incumbent is probably not that unpopular.

[birkinabe]

Jun 13, 2024 10:16:27 GMT batman said:

I don't think so. I think they split the right-wing vote & Labour wins. Perhaps they get second ahead of the Tories but the Tory incumbent is probably not that unpopular.

It is worth noting, however, that she never got over 40% (let alone a majority) of the vote here until 2019, in large part due to good UKIP performances in 2015 and 2017. 

Regarding the result here in July, I suspect it will be one of the more extensively covered ones due to a combination of the Conservatives dropping from 1st place in 2019 to 3rd place (though this wouldn't be the only seat where this happens), and the resulting swing to Labour/Reform (and Labour majority if they win, which I think they almost definitely will even if Reform has a very good night) being heavily inflated by this, all despite the very good (as far as this seat goes) Conservative result last general election.

[Deleted]

The other thing is the growing Black population here - it's probably not as WWC as it was in 2015 when UKIP almost won it.

[birkinabe]

Jun 13, 2024 13:18:40 GMT @weld said:

The other thing is the growing Black population here - it's probably not as WWC as it was in 2015 when UKIP almost won it.

Yes, as well as the ethnic minority population in general (hence why I think there's a WPB candidate here). The electorate here, however, is likely significantly more WWC than the population as a whole is due to the ethnic minority population being disproportionately under 18 (the 2021 census also recorded a significant 'White Other' population that is likely largely ineligible to vote in general elections due to being non-UK/Irish/Commonwealth nationals, and that may be less prominent now anyway), so that may end up helping Reform.

[nyx]

Enough Labour strength that I'd expect them to win, but wouldn't surprise me if Reform beats the Tories to second place.

[YL]

No great surprise: