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Post by aargauer on Oct 7, 2024 7:48:11 GMT
I can see why Coffey lost. Most British people prefer tea, really. Shedding 26% is still piss poor. It's way above the national average. And Reform got 16% of votes. So in line with nation-wide result. Beautiful seat this, unbelievable Labour won. Tories should get this back, however. No reason why Reform couldn't advance. Lots of old people, very white. When you do that badly, the result is not going to follow UNS. It wasn't a particularly poor result. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Oct 7, 2024 10:11:00 GMT
Indeed doesn't this just show how awful Norfolk and Suffolk were for the Tories, even in the context of the national drubbing. For Yarmouth, SW Norfolk, Suffolk Coastal, N Norfolk and Waveney Valley all to fall (to 4 different parties) at the same time shows a regional issue worth looking into - why was Anglia such a bin fire - rather than making it personal about Therese Coffey.
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 7, 2024 15:38:30 GMT
Not sure the retired voters in Suffolk Coastal are natural Reform types. Many in places like Aldeburgh and Southwold will be wealthy, highly educated professionals in their careers. This is not white van man territory.
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 7, 2024 15:41:53 GMT
Not convinced Norfolk and Suffolk were much worse than say the West Country where the Conservatives were wiped out in Cornwall, reduced to one seat in Somerset and fewer than 200 votes away from only winning two seats in the whole of Devon. Oxfordshire, Derbyshire and Cumbria also stand out as shockingly bad Conservative performances even in the context of this election.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2024 15:55:44 GMT
Not sure the retired voters in Suffolk Coastal are natural Reform types. Many in places like Aldeburgh and Southwold will be wealthy, highly educated professionals in their careers. This is not white van man territory. I know that area very well indeed and think it is rather good Reform potential territory. I am not a white van man but I identify with most of their core interests and fears. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 7, 2024 16:01:20 GMT
The retired public sector professional who swung about fifty foot to their right in all respects the moment they started to collect their pension is not exactly a rare phenomenon. The Reform vote here was fairly low, which might indicate greater Conservative retention amongst older voters for socio-economic reasons, but some of the smaller ups and downs in the Reform vote are a little odd everywhere so who knows. What's the level of postal voting here? That seems to be a factor in places, if we're talking finer gradients.
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 7, 2024 16:54:03 GMT
I don't see this as particularly fertile for Reform although they could do well in Felixstowe. It's not like Lowestoft (as Waveney constituency now basically is) let alone Great Yarmouth. Felixstowe is shifting, demographically. It's becoming attractive for younger people priced out of Ipswich. Lots of high-quality housing stock, good transport links, etc.
As a whole, the constituency is definitely not fertile Reform territory. Most main reasons have been covered above. Also, the East Suffolk elections in 2021 showed how much there is a willingness to vote for any of Lab/LD/Grn.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 7, 2024 17:12:22 GMT
I don't see this as particularly fertile for Reform although they could do well in Felixstowe. It's not like Lowestoft (as Waveney constituency now basically is) let alone Great Yarmouth. Felixstowe is shifting, demographically. It's becoming attractive for younger people priced out of Ipswich. Lots of high-quality housing stock, good transport links, etc.
As a whole, the constituency is definitely not fertile Reform territory. Most main reasons have been covered above. Also, the East Suffolk elections in 2021 showed how much there is a willingness to vote for any of Lab/LD/Grn.
Where would you compare it to in this respect-maybe Worthing? With the caveat that there's more money in Brighton than in Ipswich. |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 7, 2024 19:47:08 GMT
Felixstowe is shifting, demographically. It's becoming attractive for younger people priced out of Ipswich. Lots of high-quality housing stock, good transport links, etc.
As a whole, the constituency is definitely not fertile Reform territory. Most main reasons have been covered above. Also, the East Suffolk elections in 2021 showed how much there is a willingness to vote for any of Lab/LD/Grn.
Where would you compare it to in this respect-maybe Worthing? With the caveat that there's more money in Brighton than in Ipswich. Yes, Worthing is a very good example. Closer to home, Stretford, taking in the generation priced out of Chorlton. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 7, 2024 20:11:16 GMT
I don't see this as particularly fertile for Reform although they could do well in Felixstowe. It's not like Lowestoft (as Waveney constituency now basically is) let alone Great Yarmouth. Felixstowe is shifting, demographically. It's becoming attractive for younger people priced out of Ipswich. Lots of high-quality housing stock, good transport links, etc. Isn't Felixstowe plagued by only having a single track line with the majority of the traffic being freight clogging it up? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2024 5:17:14 GMT
Felixstowe is shifting, demographically. It's becoming attractive for younger people priced out of Ipswich. Lots of high-quality housing stock, good transport links, etc.
As a whole, the constituency is definitely not fertile Reform territory. Most main reasons have been covered above. Also, the East Suffolk elections in 2021 showed how much there is a willingness to vote for any of Lab/LD/Grn.
Where would you compare it to in this respect-maybe Worthing? With the caveat that there's more money in Brighton than in Ipswich. Coastal elites in Brighton and Worthing. Maybe they're a thing here too. I'm still shocked Labour won here. But Ipswich, why the demand there? It seems like an inferior Norwich. I mean in terms of economy. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 8, 2024 12:09:22 GMT
Where would you compare it to in this respect-maybe Worthing? With the caveat that there's more money in Brighton than in Ipswich. Coastal elites in Brighton and Worthing. Maybe they're a thing here too. I'm still shocked Labour won here. But Ipswich, why the demand there? It seems like an inferior Norwich. I mean in terms of economy. It’s got a better football team at the moment. |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 8, 2024 16:29:42 GMT
Felixstowe is shifting, demographically. It's becoming attractive for younger people priced out of Ipswich. Lots of high-quality housing stock, good transport links, etc. Isn't Felixstowe plagued by only having a single track line with the majority of the traffic being freight clogging it up? Hourly shuttle service to Ipswich, under 30 minute journey time. Not bad, for how provincial services are, in this country! And then a decent through service to London. Plus the A14 means it's well-connected by road. |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 8, 2024 16:32:27 GMT
Where would you compare it to in this respect-maybe Worthing? With the caveat that there's more money in Brighton than in Ipswich. Coastal elites in Brighton and Worthing. Maybe they're a thing here too. I'm still shocked Labour won here. But Ipswich, why the demand there? It seems like an inferior Norwich. I mean in terms of economy. There's more high-tech employment than you might think. Both the long-standing presence at Martlesham that was once BT's main research base, and also with the proximity to Cambridge meaning a spill-over of "Silicon Fen" economy. Also, Ipswich is perhaps under-noticed as a major base for London commuters. Journey time of over an hour, but the trade-off is that it puts you right in the heart of the City without onward travel. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 9, 2024 0:19:57 GMT
Coastal elites in Brighton and Worthing. Maybe they're a thing here too. I'm still shocked Labour won here. But Ipswich, why the demand there? It seems like an inferior Norwich. I mean in terms of economy. It’s got a better football team at the moment. Yup, Town a division above The Canaries this season in both men's and women's footie. |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 9, 2024 17:10:13 GMT
Coastal elites in Brighton and Worthing. Maybe they're a thing here too. I'm still shocked Labour won here. But Ipswich, why the demand there? It seems like an inferior Norwich. I mean in terms of economy. There's more high-tech employment than you might think. Both the long-standing presence at Martlesham that was once BT's main research base, and also with the proximity to Cambridge meaning a spill-over of "Silicon Fen" economy. Also, Ipswich is perhaps under-noticed as a major base for London commuters. Journey time of over an hour, but the trade-off is that it puts you right in the heart of the City without onward travel. But neither Ipswich nor this seat have seen particularly poor conservative performances over the last few results, in the context of the national trend. This seat could easily have been lost in 1997 had the opposition not been split, and of course this year was significantly worse for the Tories than 1997. I don't really buy the idea that there's Brightonification here. Its not trendy or cool, and there are ultimately limited numbers of those sorts of people. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 11, 2024 14:38:36 GMT
Isn't Felixstowe plagued by only having a single track line with the majority of the traffic being freight clogging it up? Hourly shuttle service to Ipswich, under 30 minute journey time. Not bad, for how provincial services are, in this country! And then a decent through service to London. Plus the A14 means it's well-connected by road. An hourly shuttle service isn't particularly impressive when you consider that there are plenty of nearby settlements which have direct services to London. Especially since the connections at Ipswich station don't always line up particularly well. It's fine in you work in Ipswich or Felixstowe, but not a good choice if you're commuting towards London. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2024 15:29:02 GMT
There's more high-tech employment than you might think. Both the long-standing presence at Martlesham that was once BT's main research base, and also with the proximity to Cambridge meaning a spill-over of "Silicon Fen" economy. Also, Ipswich is perhaps under-noticed as a major base for London commuters. Journey time of over an hour, but the trade-off is that it puts you right in the heart of the City without onward travel. But neither Ipswich nor this seat have seen particularly poor conservative performances over the last few results, in the context of the national trend. This seat could easily have been lost in 1997 had the opposition not been split, and of course this year was significantly worse for the Tories than 1997. I don't really buy the idea that there's Brightonification here. Its not trendy or cool, and there are ultimately limited numbers of those sorts of people. Silicon Fen isn't like Brighton effect. They're generally richer for one thing. Brighton is just a few commuters. Silicon fen has more wealth really. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 11, 2024 15:49:45 GMT
I can see why Coffey lost. Most British people prefer tea, really. You drink your coffee I’ll sip my tea…… |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 12, 2024 9:32:42 GMT
Hourly shuttle service to Ipswich, under 30 minute journey time. Not bad, for how provincial services are, in this country! And then a decent through service to London. Plus the A14 means it's well-connected by road. An hourly shuttle service isn't particularly impressive when you consider that there are plenty of nearby settlements which have direct services to London. Especially since the connections at Ipswich station don't always line up particularly well. It's fine in you work in Ipswich or Felixstowe, but not a good choice if you're commuting towards London. Well-connected within the region, is what I meant, compared to plenty of other otherwise-attractive small towns. Agree that only those on the direct Ipswich line are going to appeal to London commuters. |
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