South Basildon and East Thurrock

[AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken]

First count reform ahead by 127 votes so this could be another Reform gain. Labour demanded a recount.

[The Bishop]

Jul 5, 2024 12:27:43 GMT AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken said:

First count reform ahead by 127 votes so this could be another Reform gain. Labour demanded a recount.

Well at the very least this shows that Labour would have taken a "unified" Basildon seat pretty comfortably.

[right]

Jul 5, 2024 12:27:43 GMT AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken said:

First count reform ahead by 127 votes so this could be another Reform gain. Labour demanded a recount.

Do recounts reverse in three figures. I accept there might be some mislabeled bundles, but they're quite rare by the time a recount comes.

[Deleted]

Jul 5, 2024 12:27:43 GMT AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken said:

First count reform ahead by 127 votes so this could be another Reform gain. Labour demanded a recount.

I thought Reform would take this because of the history of UKIP doing well, and I think it made a difference Farage in this election standing in Essex rather than Kent. 

[AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken]

Jul 5, 2024 12:51:09 GMT right said:

Jul 5, 2024 12:27:43 GMT AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken said:

First count reform ahead by 127 votes so this could be another Reform gain. Labour demanded a recount.

Do recounts reverse in three figures. I accept there might be some mislabeled bundles, but they're quite rare by the time a recount comes.

Apparently they found Thurrock ballot papers in Basildon and East Thurrock and some bundles with the wrong party marked affecting all parties! Recount has started at 2.00pm (now)

[The Bishop]

Jul 5, 2024 12:51:09 GMT right said:

Jul 5, 2024 12:27:43 GMT AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken said:

First count reform ahead by 127 votes so this could be another Reform gain. Labour demanded a recount.

Do recounts reverse in three figures. I accept there might be some mislabeled bundles, but they're quite rare by the time a recount comes.

More often than you might think. I think the record "overturned" margin may be closer to a thousand (sadly, can't recall when or where this was)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Turnout 54.6% = 39,678 votes

[batman]

I had Reform down as winning the other Basildon seat, and not quite this one. However my predictions (along with any involving reform except Clacton) were not made with huge confidence - there was always going to be a rather complex Lab - Con - Reform 3-way split in those seats & it was no easy matter predicting them. In the end I have probably got both of them wrong, though only very narrowly.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Local paper says declaration is getting close. 

Whi knows what that actually means.

[eastmidlandsright]

Three hours should have been more than enough time for a full recount. No need to verify again and the ballots are already sorted. Just a case of checking each ballot is in the right pile and the correct numbers in the bundle.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Reform gain by 98 votes from Labour in 2nd, Conservatives 2,000 votes back in 3rd.

[AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken]

Reform - James McMurdock 12,178

Lab - Jack Ferguson 12,080

Con - Stephen Metcalfe 10,159

Ind - Neil Speight 1,928

Green - Elizabeth Grant 1,718

Lib Dem - Dave Thomas 1,071

Ind - Steven Burnett 275

Socdem - Simon Breedon 140

[AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken]

Let's hope they don't demand another recount!

[Deleted]

BBC have called it - Reform gain from Conservative by 98 votes over Labour! I thought Reform would win but it's still a bit of a surprise. 

[essexman]

Nigel Farage said the Reform candidate here didn’t have an election agent and was at the recount with his mum and dad.

If somewhere promising like here had no election agent, could say 90% or more Reform candidates not have had election agents? Also, would this be the only MP elected in the country without one?

I for one think a later election would have helped Reform. They would have had a few months to fundraise and get the barebones organisation like agents between Nigel announcing a comeback and the election date. A good few 3-4% losses could have fallen into line (Basildon & Billericay, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Hornchurch & Upminster, SW Norfolk, Llanelli).

[greenchristian]

Jul 5, 2024 22:20:55 GMT essexman said:

Nigel Farage said the Reform candidate here didn’t have an election agent and was at the recount with his mum and dad.

If somewhere promising like here had no election agent, could say 90% or more Reform candidates not have had election agents? Also, would this be the only MP elected in the country without one?

I for one think a later election would have helped Reform. They would have had a few months to fundraise and get the barebones organisation like agents between Nigel announcing a comeback and the election date. A good few 3-4% losses could have fallen into line (Basildon & Billericay, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Hornchurch & Upminster, SW Norfolk, Llanelli).

Every candidate has an election agent. it's just that sometimes the agent happens to also be the candidate (I was both in Coventry East, for example).

As for Farage organising a comeback, he only did that after the election was called. It might have been a snap decision, or it might have been always planned as a publicity stunt to be timed just after the election had been called. But it almost certainly would not have happened when it did if Sunak had left the election until the autumn.

[eastmidlandsright]

Jul 5, 2024 22:20:55 GMT essexman said:

Nigel Farage said the Reform candidate here didn’t have an election agent and was at the recount with his mum and dad.

If somewhere promising like here had no election agent, could say 90% or more Reform candidates not have had election agents? Also, would this be the only MP elected in the country without one?

If most had to act as their own agents it would make it even more of an accomplishment that Reform got so many candidates in place. I wonder if maybe they had paid staff or local organisers doing the paperwork but just putting the candidates down as their own agents.

NB: I checked and Farage was correct that McMurdock was his own agent.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Independents who got in were their own agents.

[Deleted]

Embarrassingly, I forgot to click the 'Reform gain' option here (Joe Biden debate moment). Are there any other seats with polls where 0 predicted the eventual victor?

[stb12]

Jul 6, 2024 6:30:23 GMT @weld said:

Embarrassingly, I forgot to click the 'Reform gain' option here (Joe Biden debate moment). Are there any other seats with polls where 0 predicted the eventual victor?

I did wonder about that when you said you’d predicted a Reform gain

I added the poll relatively late but I think it was before your suspension

[carlton43]

Jul 5, 2024 23:17:40 GMT greenchristian said:

Jul 5, 2024 22:20:55 GMT essexman said:

Nigel Farage said the Reform candidate here didn’t have an election agent and was at the recount with his mum and dad.

If somewhere promising like here had no election agent, could say 90% or more Reform candidates not have had election agents? Also, would this be the only MP elected in the country without one?

I for one think a later election would have helped Reform. They would have had a few months to fundraise and get the barebones organisation like agents between Nigel announcing a comeback and the election date. A good few 3-4% losses could have fallen into line (Basildon & Billericay, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Hornchurch & Upminster, SW Norfolk, Llanelli).

Every candidate has an election agent. it's just that sometimes the agent happens to also be the candidate (I was both in Coventry East, for example).

As for Farage organising a comeback, he only did that after the election was called. It might have been a snap decision, or it might have been always planned as a publicity stunt to be timed just after the election had been called. But it almost certainly would not have happened when it did if Sunak had left the election until the autumn.

I think that is nearly certainly the case.  It would have been better for Farage to have done this last year and to have milked the scene for much longer.  Better planning, more training, more vetting, more money and crucially a much more robust network of ground support and mutual aid; but it's not him is it?  He likes the sudden drama and the personality cult and the grandstanding effects of being the star, the centre of gravity and the principal mover and shaker, without whom none of it being seen to be possible.  He is the core attraction the reason for the success, such as it is; but also the major constraint on the development of a modern mass party as well!!