stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:23:28 GMT
South Basildon and East Thurrock
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 16, 2024 8:16:13 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 29, 2024 21:32:05 GMT
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD |
| | | | | | | | | | 1974 | 27.9% | 49.4% | 22.6% | | | | 1974 | 27.8% | 52.5% | 19.3% | | | | 1979 | 42.4% | 46.1% | 10.0% | | | | 1983 | 42.1% | 32.8% | 24.5% | | | | 1987 | 46.8% | 34.6% | 18.7% | | | | 1992 | 47.9% | 38.6% | 13.4% | | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP | Ind | BNP | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 32.0% | 54.5% | 8.9% | 4.6% | | | | 2001 | 35.9% | 51.4% | 8.8% | 3.4% | | | | 2005 | 38.2% | 41.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | | 6.1% | | 2010 | 43.0% | 31.2% | 13.4% | 6.1% | | 6.0% | | 2015 | 42.4% | 25.2% | 2.9% | 27.8% | | | | 2017 | 55.5% | 32.4% | 1.6% | 8.5% | | | | 2019 | 65.4% | 23.6% | 4.1% | | 6.7% | |
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Post by hempie on Jun 8, 2024 10:23:27 GMT
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 26, 2024 15:20:50 GMT
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kevinf
Labour
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Post by kevinf on Jun 26, 2024 15:28:59 GMT
Neil Speight is a local councillor and former editor of an Essex newspaper |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 16:58:33 GMT
Reform gain. A county-wide boost for Reform because Farage is contesting Clacton. I think Reform will take this seat with about 35% of the vote.
Something like RFM 34% LAB 34% CON 29% OTH 2%. This is almost a Reform gerrymander - UKIP got 26% in 2015 (double their national share).
I'm not going to ask for a poll but I think this will be close, especially if the Tories are winning around 50 seats. Their vote is abnormally high here.
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Post by AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken on Jun 28, 2024 17:23:06 GMT
Reform gain. A county-wide boost for Reform because Farage is contesting Clacton. I think Reform will take this seat with about 35% of the vote. Something like RFM 34% LAB 34% CON 29% OTH 2%. This is almost a Reform gerrymander - UKIP got 26% in 2015 (double their national share). I'm not going to ask for a poll but I think this will be close, especially if the Tories are winning around 50 seats. Their vote is abnormally high here. In the local elections the independents took 15.7% of the vote in the East Thurrock part of the constituency taking all but 1 seat. Neil Speight the Independent candidate is a former Conservative Party member and local newspaper editor - he will split the Reform vote. I don't think he is known in the South Basildon. This year the former Thurrock ward of Chadwell St Mary has been added to South Basildon and East Thurrock - Chadwell is a solid Labour stronghold. Over optimistic about a Reform win here. But this is a strange place politically so anything is possible! |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 28, 2024 22:16:38 GMT
Reform gain. A county-wide boost for Reform because Farage is contesting Clacton. I think Reform will take this seat with about 35% of the vote. Something like RFM 34% LAB 34% CON 29% OTH 2%. This is almost a Reform gerrymander - UKIP got 26% in 2015 (double their national share). I'm not going to ask for a poll but I think this will be close, especially if the Tories are winning around 50 seats. Their vote is abnormally high here. The Conservative vote is abnormally high so you think that Reform will win here? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 1:16:47 GMT
Reform gain. A county-wide boost for Reform because Farage is contesting Clacton. I think Reform will take this seat with about 35% of the vote. Something like RFM 34% LAB 34% CON 29% OTH 2%. This is almost a Reform gerrymander - UKIP got 26% in 2015 (double their national share). I'm not going to ask for a poll but I think this will be close, especially if the Tories are winning around 50 seats. Their vote is abnormally high here. The Conservative vote is abnormally high so you think that Reform will win here? The Tory vote was massive in 2019 so Reform are fishing in a deep pool yes. |
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Post by AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken on Jun 29, 2024 7:50:15 GMT
The Conservative vote is abnormally high so you think that Reform will win here? The Tory vote was massive in 2019 so Reform are fishing in a deep pool yes. But since then the Conservatives bankrupted Thurrock Council with their dodgy windfarm scheme so the East Thurrock part of the constituency have no love for the Conservatives anymore. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 7:51:43 GMT
The Tory vote was massive in 2019 so Reform are fishing in a deep pool yes. But since then the Conservatives bankrupted Thurrock Council with their dodgy windfarm scheme so the East Thurrock part of the constituency have no love for the Conservatives anymore. Exactly. It's a sleeper flip where Reform have a solid opportunity of winning an Essex seat outside of Farage's constituency, along with Castle Point and Thurrock. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 29, 2024 11:10:54 GMT
Thurrock itself should go Labour, though Reform could quite possibly get second.
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Post by AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken on Jun 29, 2024 11:13:13 GMT
Thurrock itself should go Labour, though Reform could quite possibly get second. Jackie Doyle-Price deserves to vanish into her own mediocrity. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 30, 2024 8:22:22 GMT
The idea that Thurrock or Basildon are at all influenced by Clacton could only be advanced by somebody who doesn't understand Essex at all.
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Post by batman on Jun 30, 2024 8:33:09 GMT
I'd have thought a poll for this constituency (probably Lab, C, RefUK) would be worthwhile.
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 30, 2024 8:34:30 GMT
I'd have thought a poll for this constituency (probably Lab, C, RefUK) would be worthwhile. I think it's going to be Lab, Ref, C in that order. |
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Post by batman on Jun 30, 2024 8:40:30 GMT
I tend to agree, though I am expecting it to be a genuine 3-way contest. I think ReformUK has a better chance in Basildon & Billericay which has more areas of outright weakness for Labour
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Post by AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken on Jun 30, 2024 11:51:56 GMT
The weakness of both UKIP and Reform is that they didn't have years of polling data to know who to target on polling day - great campaigns let down by the get out the vote campaign on polling day.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 8:00:33 GMT
This seat is apparently close between Labour and Reform, with the latter possibly ahead, and there will be a recount this afternoon.
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