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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 18, 2024 10:13:01 GMT
Their predecessors usually managed to get a good effort in one or two constituencies, and Clacton did have a well functioning UKIP organisation under Carswell It would be interesting to know if Carswell's voter ID data - that from the by-election and later the 2015 GE - is something that Reform have access to. I suspect not. In as far as the distinction matters I suspect Clacton had a well function Carswell organisation that did things very differently from the standard Ukip operations (the public spat between Carswell and Farage about postal votes was telling) and I wouldn't be surprised if many in Ukip didn't even understand the importance of voter ID data. Journalists sent to cover by-elections in this period reported finding Ukip activists, including supposedly key people (*), doing street stalls and laughing about not seeing the other parties whilst the journalists silently laughed that the other parties were doubtless on the doorsteps. Carswell showed a lot of canniness in keeping hold of key apparatus and probably wasn't sharing with Ukip nationally even if the latter were interested. Plus of course he left Ukip in, what, early 2017, and it's doubtful any of his local operation or national files made it over to the Brexit Party a couple of years later. |
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right
Conservative
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Clacton
Jun 18, 2024 10:29:53 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2024 10:29:53 GMT
It would be interesting to know if Carswell's voter ID data - that from the by-election and later the 2015 GE - is something that Reform have access to. I suspect not. In as far as the distinction matters I suspect Clacton had a well function Carswell organisation that did things very differently from the standard Ukip operations (the public spat between Carswell and Farage about postal votes was telling) and I wouldn't be surprised if many in Ukip didn't even understand the importance of voter ID data. Journalists sent to cover by-elections in this period reported finding Ukip activists, including supposedly key people (*), doing street stalls and laughing about not seeing the other parties whilst the journalists silently laughed that the other parties were doubtless on the doorsteps. Carswell showed a lot of canniness in keeping hold of key apparatus and probably wasn't sharing with Ukip nationally even if the latter were interested. Plus of course he left Ukip in, what, early 2017, and it's doubtful any of his local operation or national files made it over to the Brexit Party a couple of years later. A lot of the specifics on Clacton are true where I know it and plausible when I don't, but UKIP had learned the hard way that after a certain point leaflets and street stalls weren't enough and they needed to be identifying their vote abd getting them out on the day. And the constant trickle of ex Tories bolstered that. They weren't great at it, but they knew it needed to be done. |
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Tony Otim
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Clacton
Jun 18, 2024 10:33:35 GMT
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 18, 2024 10:33:35 GMT
It would be interesting to know if Carswell's voter ID data - that from the by-election and later the 2015 GE - is something that Reform have access to. I suspect not. In as far as the distinction matters I suspect Clacton had a well function Carswell organisation that did things very differently from the standard Ukip operations (the public spat between Carswell and Farage about postal votes was telling) and I wouldn't be surprised if many in Ukip didn't even understand the importance of voter ID data. Journalists sent to cover by-elections in this period reported finding Ukip activists, including supposedly key people (*), doing street stalls and laughing about not seeing the other parties whilst the journalists silently laughed that the other parties were doubtless on the doorsteps. Carswell showed a lot of canniness in keeping hold of key apparatus and probably wasn't sharing with Ukip nationally even if the latter were interested. Plus of course he left Ukip in, what, early 2017, and it's doubtful any of his local operation or national files made it over to the Brexit Party a couple of years later. As the Brexit Party and UKIP were separate organisations legally, there would be significant data management issues if much voter ID information had made it across... |
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Post by observer on Jun 18, 2024 11:03:37 GMT
I suspect that Reform organisation is lamentable.
When I was in UKIP there was little understanding at all of the need for voter ID.
I had been in the Labour Party for decades, including as a ward-level election organiser, and training there was good.
I remember my first UKIP election. The strategy was laughable. No local leaflets were planned so I wrote some and got them printed.
Active members of the branch then intended to distribute them in the streets in the areas in which each of them lived - regardless of whether they were in the correct ward or not. I eventually got them to deliver along organised delivery walks.
There was no understanding of the need for, or the significance of, canvassing.
I explained it's importance to our election committee. I particularly thought our parliamentary candidate might be interested. He was tinkering with his phone while I was explaining. After two minutes or so he interrupted and asked me to put it all in an email instead...an email he never read.
Later in the campaign he told me he'd been door knocking. Impressed, I asked him if he had recorded voter intentions. He looked puzzled and said he thought voters would be offended by that.
Not once did the regional or national party offer training along such basic lines. I wrote to region to offer my help in such training but didn't receive a reply.
I suspect that Reform is running on similar lines as Farage dislikes strong local branches.
Reform will certainly lose some seats due to this
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 18, 2024 11:26:10 GMT
I'll just observe this: swap Farage for Griffin and we'd be having a very different conversation about that photograph. Because Griffin doesn't dress as well as these two? |
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right
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Clacton
Jun 18, 2024 12:32:16 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2024 12:32:16 GMT
I have heard similar stories to yours. But I would say that there were branches that had learned this wasn't sufficient.
Farage certainly doesn't like strong local branches and this will tell
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 18, 2024 18:31:38 GMT
As the Brexit Party and UKIP were separate organisations legally, there would be significant data management issues if much voter ID information had made it across... Legally yes but I suspect more data was was transferred between parties than should have been. |
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right
Conservative
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Clacton
Jun 18, 2024 18:49:59 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 18, 2024 18:49:59 GMT
As the Brexit Party and UKIP were separate organisations legally, there would be significant data management issues if much voter ID information had made it across... Legally yes but I suspect more data was was transferred between parties than should have been. I'd be amazed. UKIP hated Farage for breaking with them (and later breaking them). I'd also stress that the BxP were paranoid about GDPR and far more risk adverse on it than other parties. |
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binky
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Post by binky on Jun 19, 2024 13:01:43 GMT
Survation has Farage on 43, Conservatives on 27, and Labour on 24.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 19, 2024 13:06:03 GMT
The Clacton by-election ...  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 13:07:15 GMT
The Clacton by-election ... CCHQ gets PTSD ... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 13:14:27 GMT
Survation has Farage on 43, Conservatives on 27, and Labour on 24. Which isn't even the biggest swing in this seat in recent history, let alone the biggest in modern electoral history overall. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 19, 2024 14:26:33 GMT
Actually that poll is not as good for Farage as last night's MRP survey which gave Reform 52% there.
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right
Conservative
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Clacton
Jun 19, 2024 14:46:07 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 19, 2024 14:46:07 GMT
Actually that poll is not as good for Farage as last night's MRP survey which gave Reform 52% there. Considering the amount of usually non voting supporters he needs it neck and neck |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 19, 2024 14:50:38 GMT
Survation has Farage on 43, Conservatives on 27, and Labour on 24. Which isn't even the biggest swing in this seat in recent history, let alone the biggest in modern electoral history overall. And it isn't a by election. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 17:10:44 GMT
Not quite sure where these percentages are coming from (given they quote the Survation poll) but huge, if true! Imagine Labour winning here!!  |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 19, 2024 17:49:40 GMT
Which isn't even the biggest swing in this seat in recent history, let alone the biggest in modern electoral history overall. And it isn't a by election. That will come later when Farage quits to go to the US? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 17:51:29 GMT
Not quite sure where these percentages are coming from (given they quote the Survation poll) but huge, if true! Imagine Labour winning here!! Voodoo poll methinks. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 19, 2024 17:55:57 GMT
Not quite sure where these percentages are coming from (given they quote the Survation poll) but huge, if true! Imagine Labour winning here!! But who in their right mind publishes a poll to two decimal places? With a constituency poll, it would be good if they get it to the nearest 10%. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 19, 2024 19:01:30 GMT
Not quite sure where these percentages are coming from (given they quote the Survation poll) but huge, if true! Imagine Labour winning here!! It's from the Survation MRP, not to be confused with the Survation constituency poll. |
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