Derbyshire Dales

[YL]

Jul 8, 2024 13:47:21 GMT @weld said:

Why did the Tories hold Staffordshire Moorlands but not this? That seat had a Labour MP up to 2010. Labour may win Derbyshire council next year. 

Staffordshire Moorlands included Kidsgrove between 1997 and 2010, which helped.

When I wrote the profile of this seat I didn't really think Labour would win it: they could win Matlock, Cromford and Wirksworth, and there were clearly signs of Tory weakness in the north of the seat (Bakewell county division, essentially; look at the 2023 results in Hathersage and Bradwell wards, the Labour win in a by-election in Bakewell earlier this year, and the Greens winning some of the other rural wards), but I thought the rest of the constituency would save them. However with the Tories' poor polling position I started to change my mind and thought Labour might do it.

[batman]

Once the Tories start losing to Labour in Bakewell, they are indeed in trouble. There are other villages which have some Labour potential, but others where you wouldn't think that was the case as well.

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2024 19:58:50 GMT batman said:

Once the Tories start losing to Labour in Bakewell, they are indeed in trouble. There are other villages which have some Labour potential, but others where you wouldn't think that was the case as well.

One the Tories start losing to Labour in Bakewell, they're truly cooked? I think the Tories could easily get (Mat)locked out of some of the more well-healed seats.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 9, 2024 1:22:58 GMT @weld said:

Jul 8, 2024 19:58:50 GMT batman said:

Once the Tories start losing to Labour in Bakewell, they are indeed in trouble. There are other villages which have some Labour potential, but others where you wouldn't think that was the case as well.

One the Tories start losing to Labour in Bakewell, they're truly cooked? I think the Tories could easily get (Mat)locked out of some of the more well-healed seats.

Crooked? That's Chesterfield not Bakwell, you pudding. 

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2024 9:28:26 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 9, 2024 1:22:58 GMT @weld said:

One the Tories start losing to Labour in Bakewell, they're truly cooked? I think the Tories could easily get (Mat)locked out of some of the more well-healed seats.

Crooked? That's Chesterfield not Bakwell, you pudding. 

Actually, fat ginger syndrome dint' get the best of me thistiem 

[Sharon]

Jul 8, 2024 16:43:45 GMT Robert Waller said:

The Flowers Estate, or 'Flower Roads', is a series of roads in north Southampton split between the present Bassett and Swaythling wards. It was built during the 1930s as entirely social housing, and the homes are mostly semi-detached. The roads are named after flowers - Honeysuckle, Violet, Lobelia, Carnation and Bluebell are the main through ones, while Daisy, Poppy, Laburnum, Aster, (all east of Lobelia Road) Iris, Pansy, Begonia, Tulip and Primrose (all west, running between Honeysuckle and Violet) come off them. I think that's all of them? All the roads are residential and there is a park called 'Daisy Dip' in the middle but otherwise there are no shops, pubs, amenities until you leave the estate. At the time when David was growing up in the 1980s (in the city centre and not here) it had a reputation of being quite rough, particularly in the western end, but I wouldn't say so now, though it is still less affluent and mainly houses former council tenants and families - the contrast to the neighbouring Bassett Green and Glen Eyre areas is rather stark. As a result if we are talking about electoral significance it might be, to my knowledge, lower turnout in any case. Despite being near the university it doesn't have as much student housing as one might expect - compared to Hampton Park and Portswood, but with its proximity to the university comes distance to everywhere students want to be the rest of the time. I think that's a good short summary but @sharon might want to add some details that I haven't managed to, not least because she represented half of it.
(above)

Paging Sharon

a/ because she may be unlikely to see this on a Derbyshire Dales thread, which is a long way from Southampton

b/ her username is @ visitor so she won't be alerted

The Flowers: 
Honeysuckle Rd & Bluebell Rd both split between Bassett & Swaythling
Wholly within Swaythling:
Aster Rd, Carnation Rd, Daffodil Rd, Laburnum Rd, Lobelia Rd, Lupin Rd & Poppy Rd.
Wholly within Bassett:
Begonia Rd, Daisy Rd, Iris Rd, Lilac Rd, Pansy Rd, Primrose Rd, Tulip Rd & Violet Rd.

In both wards, turnout tends towards being low.

Mixed housing, some still Council, some owner occupier, bought under the RtB, quite a bit of private rental housing, although more of that is student occupied in Bassett than in Swaythling.
Quite high levels of deprivation, with a fair amount of ASB.

[mrtoad]

I went to school in the Flower Estate - Glen Eyre was on Violet Road. People would occasionally graffiti the road sign so it read 'Violent Road'. There was - in the 1980s - a degree of accuracy to that.

[heslingtonian]

This is another seat where I think selecting a hardline Right wing Brexiteer Johnson type populist candidate in 2019 did for the Conservatives in 2024. Patrick McLoughlin would still have been winning this.

[matureleft]

Jul 11, 2024 7:50:39 GMT heslingtonian said:

This is another seat where I think selecting a hardline Right wing Brexiteer Johnson type populist candidate in 2019 did for the Conservatives in 2024. Patrick McLoughlin would still have been winning this.

Yes, that’s probably true. The gently declining Tory vote is primarily what I describe as “pained Tory”. Mildly apologetic about the party in its current form, “county set”, farming, small business but serving a customer base increasingly less enthusiastic about the Tory brand. McLoughlin (while he didn’t come from those groups) had been around them a long time. 

The Labour candidate, a Derby City councillor, wasn’t particularly strong so a decent defensive campaign should have done the trick.