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Post by batman on Jun 25, 2024 14:38:03 GMT
That's nice, it will give Farage someone to argue with in Parliament no it won’t |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 25, 2024 14:41:11 GMT
When Reform fail to win some/all of the seats that are being touted for them, how many allegations of vote rigging and stealing elections will circulate round the internet?
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Post by observer on Jun 25, 2024 15:37:27 GMT
When Reform fail to win some/all of the seats that are being touted for them, how many allegations of vote rigging and stealing elections will circulate round the internet? Extremely few, if any. Their problem is lack of grassroots organisation. It will cost them dear |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 25, 2024 16:24:42 GMT
In that scenario, were I a Reform candidate, I'd be spitting acid at Farage for needlessly putting his neck out and making provocative comments about Ukraine. If Reform fall back a couple of points, that'll be a big part of why.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Post by steve on Jun 25, 2024 18:50:17 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 25, 2024 18:59:48 GMT
Given Farage's *ahem* position on the invasion of Ukraine, it's ironic that his right-hand man is up against an opponent named 'war-man'  |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 25, 2024 19:38:35 GMT
When Reform fail to win some/all of the seats that are being touted for them, how many allegations of vote rigging and stealing elections will circulate round the internet? 3 |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Jun 25, 2024 22:48:07 GMT
That's nice, it will give Farage someone to argue with in Parliament Also increases the odds of defections in next Parliament. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2024 5:43:45 GMT
UKIP almost won here in 2015.
RFM 44%
CON 37%
LAB 14%
GRN 2%
LD 2%
OTH 1%
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,772
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Post by right on Jun 26, 2024 5:45:33 GMT
That's nice, it will give Farage someone to argue with in Parliament Also increases the odds of defections in next Parliament. The probability of there being one Reform MP at the end of the next Parliament is almost uncorrelated to the amount of Reform MPs that are returned at the General Election |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 26, 2024 8:52:45 GMT
When Reform fail to win some/all of the seats that are being touted for them, how many allegations of vote rigging and stealing elections will circulate round the internet? This type of post really makes me want to say grow up, but I won't because I know I've posted some inane crap on here in the past. I think it's a very reasonable question when you have both (a) a party that is could well underperform their polling, especially in terms of seats, but perhaps in terms of voteshare as well due to weak local organisation and not getting their vote out and (b) a leader who has repeatedly made largely unsubstantiated claims of vote fraud both here and in the US and (c) an electoral demographic with a greater than average likelihood to lean into certain conspiracy theories... |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 26, 2024 12:04:19 GMT
This type of post really makes me want to say grow up, but I won't because I know I've posted some inane crap on here in the past. I think it's a very reasonable question when you have both (a) a party that is could well underperform their polling, especially in terms of seats, but perhaps in terms of voteshare as well due to weak local organisation and not getting their vote out and (b) a leader who has repeatedly made largely unsubstantiated claims of vote fraud both here and in the US and (c) an electoral demographic with a greater than average likelihood to lean into certain conspiracy theories... I think your reading to much US response into the UK, I really don't see electoral fraud claims being made. However if you want an answer, I refer you to johnloony's post. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 26, 2024 12:49:19 GMT
UKIP almost won here in 2015. RFM 44% CON 37% LAB 14% GRN 2% LD 2% OTH 1% I expect Labour will do a bit better than that (after all they nearly won this seat in 1997 and 2001) but yes, this is the second most likely Reform gain after Clacton. |
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Post by mrsir on Jun 27, 2024 7:32:09 GMT
My instinct is that Reform will win Clacton comfortably but not come particularly close anywhere else.
Quite a few distant second places in Labour held seats where the Conservative vote will completely collapse but I can’t see them getting second places in lots of Brexity areas in the east of England like UKIP did in 2015.
Conservative hold with Labour second and Reform third here I think.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 27, 2024 7:41:45 GMT
UKIP at least had a large and active membership, who had been doing some campaigning in most areas for quite some time.
Reform have none of that, no data... and Tice bless him could put a glass eye to sleep.
A distant bronze medal for him here.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 0:39:24 GMT
We still have the Tories favoured. I say 'curiously' because UKIP were only 10% behind here in 2015 when they polled 13% nationally. Now they are on more like 20%.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jul 1, 2024 6:34:40 GMT
We still have the Tories favoured. I say 'curiously' because UKIP were only 10% behind here in 2015 when they polled 13% nationally. Now they are on more like 20%. I think most people on the forum do not believe Reform will get 20% nationally which is very much at the top end of any non-Matt Goodwin pollsters. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 6:36:10 GMT
We still have the Tories favoured. I say 'curiously' because UKIP were only 10% behind here in 2015 when they polled 13% nationally. Now they are on more like 20%. I think most people on the forum do not believe Reform will get 20% nationally which is very much at the top end of any non-Matt Goodwin pollsters. Yes, it's very good for Farage and assumes he can lacerate the Tories more so than he has in the polls. Reform best UKIP's 2015 result nationwide and here, IMO. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Jul 2, 2024 0:31:30 GMT
We still have the Tories favoured. I say 'curiously' because UKIP were only 10% behind here in 2015 when they polled 13% nationally. Now they are on more like 20%. UKIP on 20%? Shurely shome mishtake! |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 1:23:27 GMT
Sounds like this is going Reform.
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