|
|
Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2024 11:32:50 GMT
Are the progressive alliance brigade having their usual meltdown on Twitter? No - a search for "Uckfield" yields 4 tweets mentioning it, and "Desborough" only about a dozen. The most strongly-worded tweet was "Prime example of why some people shouldn't be allowed to vote... 😂" and even that had an emoji. |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Apr 5, 2024 11:34:58 GMT
Please note the large disparity between Labour candidates last time, with a large excess vote for one P Sawford …. That’s a good point. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 5, 2024 11:38:22 GMT
Desborough perecentages with changes from 2021
Con 47.3% (+7.5)
Lab 33.6% (+6.1)
Green 11.7% (+2.7)
LD 7.4% (-2.3)
No Ind from before
|
|
|
|
Post by dizz on Apr 5, 2024 11:42:34 GMT
The results for Desborough ward by-election have been announced and the results are:
Bill Mcelhinney (Con) - 1485
Olivia Stevenson (Green) - 368
Rikki Tod (Lab) - 1054
Alan Window (Lib Dem) - 234
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 5, 2024 11:42:44 GMT
An update on local by election statistics this municipal year, following the three contests on 04/04/24
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 4 April 2024 there have now been 166 ordinary by elections for 168 seats since May 4th 2023 . In 2022/23 year there were 183 by elections, in 2023/24 it looks like there will be 175, so a slight decrease
The Conservatives have defended 47- Held 19 and lost 28: 5 to the Greens, 16 to the Lib Dems, 6 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 40%)) and have gained 10
Labour have defended 52- Held 37 and lost 15- 5 to the Conservatives, 5 to Independents, 3 to the Lib Dems and 2 to the Greens( retention rate 71%) and have gained 12
Lib Dems have defended 31- Held 28 and lost 3, 1 each to the Conservatives and Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 90% ) and have gained 23
Greens have defended 10- Held 6 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 60%) and have gained 10
There have been elections for 14 seats previously won by Independents: 8 have been won by an another Independent , 2 have been lost to the Greens and 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru.And Independents have gained 9
Residents/ local groups have defended 6, held 4 and lost 2 to the Lib Dems.
SNP have defended 5, lost 5, 2 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 3, held 1 , lost 2, 1 to Labour and 1 to an Independent (retention rate 33%) and have gained 1
Overall net changes
Con -18
Lab -3
LD +20
Green +6
Ind + 3
SNP -5
PC -1
Res/ local groups -2
|
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Apr 5, 2024 11:47:26 GMT
Desborough perecentages with changes from 2021 Con 47.3% (+7.5) Lab 33.6% (+6.1) Green 11.7% (+2.7) LD 7.4% (-2.3) No Ind from before Usual caveats apply with low turnout etc but perhaps this suggests the Kettering Parliamentary constituency may be a tough nut for Labour to crack at the upcoming GE? |
|
|
|
Post by listener on Apr 5, 2024 12:21:29 GMT
The vote shares in Uckfield, show the Conservatives unchanged, with a swing of 7.3% from Lab to Ind.
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Apr 5, 2024 12:45:57 GMT
Please note the large disparity between Labour candidates last time, with a large excess vote for one P Sawford …. For clarity's sake, I probably should have said that Phil Sawford was Labour MP for Kettering 1997-2005. Generally, though, it also does not seem to be the case that in actual elections for local government the Conservative vote is consistently being halved compared with 2019, unlike some national opinion poll findings. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 5, 2024 12:52:10 GMT
That feels like a decent week for the Tories to be honest.
|
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Apr 5, 2024 12:56:27 GMT
Please note the large disparity between Labour candidates last time, with a large excess vote for one P Sawford …. For clarity's sake, I probably should have said that Phil Sawford was Labour MP for Kettering 1997-2005. Generally, though, it also does not seem to be the case that in actual elections for local government the Conservative vote is consistently being halved compared with 2019, unlike some national opinion poll findings. Phil is an entertaining (very much into his music) and nice guy. On the left of the party in some ways. He’d have had a large personal vote. www.nnjournal.co.uk/p/if-you-tell-the-people-the-same-story |
|
|
|
Post by stodge on Apr 5, 2024 13:25:09 GMT
A better evening for the Conservatives though local factors helped them in both Cornwall and North Northamptonshire.
I'm not familiar with the camapign in Cornwall so were Labour active in the division this time in a way perhaps they weren't in 2021?
As for North Northamptonshire, this is a classic case of where do you draw the line? The gap between third highest Conservative and third highest Labour was exactly 1000 and as others have reported, a 600 vote disparity between the top and second Labour candidates speaks volumes.
The by election result comes out as Conservative 47%, Labour 33.5%. Again, if you look at ALL votes cast the previous result was Conservative 55%, Labour 30% so you could argue a small swing to Labour. I find it complex when you have a 3-member seat and a single candidate for some parties because you don't know how (or indeed if) votes have been split and an Independent candidate complicates matters further.
I think you can argue in a very strong Conservative seat Labour have done okay as they have in Cornwall. As for whether on this basis the Conservatives can hold Cornwall Council in 2025, I don't think we can infer too much. Whether Labour can take a seat like SE Cornwall at a General Election where they need a swing of nearly 20% is also problematic. Current national polls offer some hope but it's not likely to be the number one Labour target in the county I'd argue.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 5, 2024 13:34:05 GMT
A better evening for the Conservatives though local factors helped them in both Cornwall and North Northamptonshire. I'm not familiar with the camapign in Cornwall so were Labour active in the division this time in a way perhaps they weren't in 2021? As for North Northamptonshire, this is a classic case of where do you draw the line? The gap between third highest Conservative and third highest Labour was exactly 1000 and as others have reported, a 600 vote disparity between the top and second Labour candidates speaks volumes. The by election result comes out as Conservative 47%, Labour 33.5%. Again, if you look at ALL votes cast the previous result was Conservative 55%, Labour 30% so you could argue a small swing to Labour. I find it complex when you have a 3-member seat and a single candidate for some parties because you don't know how (or indeed if) votes have been split and an Independent candidate complicates matters further. I think you can argue in a very strong Conservative seat Labour have done okay as they have in Cornwall. As for whether on this basis the Conservatives can hold Cornwall Council in 2025, I don't think we can infer too much. Whether Labour can take a seat like SE Cornwall at a General Election where they need a swing of nearly 20% is also problematic. Current national polls offer some hope but it's not likely to be the number one Labour target in the county I'd argue. I would say in Cornwall you should factor in that the deceased LD councillor had been around for a while and was relatively popular. I think the Tories should be pleased with Cornwall and holding their share but I would be surprised if they don’t fall back sharply in 2025 in Cornwall, even in national opposition by then. Labour look almost certain to make 2 gains in Cornwall at the GE, do they treat those as in the bag and move onto the 2 longer shots? |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 5, 2024 14:33:24 GMT
Labour were active in the Looe division this time , Luke Pollard brought people over from Plymouth and tweeted about it.
I am not convinced that Camborne and Redruth is as nailed on as it should be. Connor Donnithorne is a very good replacement for Useless Eustice.
|
|
|
|
Post by andykernow on Apr 5, 2024 14:42:45 GMT
In Cornwall, the level of the decrease in the Lib Dem Vote reflected the previous councillor had a very good personal following which went way over the normal party lines, as is quite common here, and so there was always going to be some sort of ‘re-balance’ of the votes. However, I do see that the Conservatives will struggle in 2025 given their unpopularity both locally and nationally.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 5, 2024 20:39:08 GMT
Labour were active in the Looe division this time , Luke Pollard brought people over from Plymouth and tweeted about it. I am not convinced that Camborne and Redruth is as nailed on as it should be. Connor Donnithorne is a very good replacement for Useless Eustice. I am convinced that Labour will take Camborne & Redruth and Truro & Falmouth, St. Austell & Newquay has the hallmarks of a famous gain, but South East Cornwall is surely too big a step. The strong Labour campaign in this council byelection seems set to help solidify Labour in a strong 2nd place and maybe a long-term challenge. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 6, 2024 8:55:14 GMT
Desborough perecentages with changes from 2021 Con 47.3% (+7.5) Lab 33.6% (+6.1) Green 11.7% (+2.7) LD 7.4% (-2.3) No Ind from before Usual caveats apply with low turnout etc but perhaps this suggests the Kettering Parliamentary constituency may be a tough nut for Labour to crack at the upcoming GE? Quite possibly, but the Tories had an equally good council byelection result in Rushden around a year ago (hence my comment upthread!) We all know what happened in the subsequent Wellingborough contest. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Apr 6, 2024 10:12:28 GMT
Referring to Desborough, the Daily Express has run a feature today on how the Tories have had a great result in an important by-election. I think they're trying a bit too hard.
|
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 6, 2024 18:57:29 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +71
LDm +24
Con +16
Grn +2
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Apr 6, 2024 20:22:56 GMT
Possibly a little generous to Labour, as we didn't gain a seat & didn't do as well as we hoped in Northants, though we certainly did well in Cornwall. Perhaps you've taken into account what Robert Waller rightly said - the previous Labour vote in Northants was almost certainly artificially high because of Phil Sawford's previous candidacy. Rather similar to Ann Cryer getting an unusually high Labour vote when she stood in Ilkley.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 6, 2024 20:58:35 GMT
Possibly a little generous to Labour, as we didn't gain a seat & didn't do as well as we hoped in Northants, though we certainly did well in Cornwall. Perhaps you've taken into account what Robert Waller rightly said - the previous Labour vote in Northants was almost certainly artificially high because of Phil Sawford's previous candidacy. Rather similar to Ann Cryer getting an unusually high Labour vote when she stood in Ilkley. I’d agree. My sense of this week would be Labour down a bit and the Conservatives up a bit from those standings. |
|
