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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 6, 2024 9:34:07 GMT
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Post by noorderling on Jun 6, 2024 19:04:52 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 7, 2024 4:52:50 GMT
PvdA/GroenLinke are still running together despite being in different European groups? |
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Post by noorderling on Jun 7, 2024 7:16:34 GMT
Yes. I’m not a big supporter of this merger, and this was one of the considerations in choosing what to vote: Do I want to contribute to adding members to Green Group? Answer: Not really.
In the end, national considerations, and mostly helping to prevent that PVV would be the biggest, prevailed.
The PVV result is stunning, since typically this is the kind of election their supporters don’t turn out for, while GL-PvdA supporters would. There is polling evidence that the rise in turnout is partly due to Wilders’ supporters voting to show their support for the new coalition (which has lost its majority before even starting).
Compared to November, CDA has done very well (probably partly but certainly not wholly because of the lower turnout). The NSC result is very bad, and will, together with poor polls, certainly not increase the love of a number of their mp’s for this coalition..
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Post by noorderling on Jun 7, 2024 7:29:23 GMT
To clarify my remark on turnout. When PvdA scored above 40 seats, a significant part of their support came from the working class areas. These type of voters more than average only turn out for Parliamentary elections. These voters have for a significant part deserted the party, which left the other part of their coalition as the main support : highly educated people, civil servant etc. GroenLinks has always been the party of these voters: of the four parties that merged into GL, only 1 had significant working class support (the Communists), and most did not follow the party into the new one. These highly educated voters usually turnout for elections.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 7, 2024 9:01:41 GMT
Ireland voting today - locals plus European.
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Post by noorderling on Jun 7, 2024 11:35:00 GMT
Most remarkable elements of the exit poll: GL-PvdA about 4% better than PVV, CDA higher than the combined vote of NSC and BBB.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 7, 2024 11:44:12 GMT
Most remarkable elements of the exit poll: GL-PvdA about 4% better than PVV, CDA higher than the combined vote of NSC and BBB. Is the first one really that remarkable? I thought that GL (and non-working class PvdA) voters are very high propensity and thatPVV voters are low propensity. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jun 7, 2024 11:46:38 GMT
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Post by noorderling on Jun 7, 2024 12:05:39 GMT
Most remarkable elements of the exit poll: GL-PvdA about 4% better than PVV, CDA higher than the combined vote of NSC and BBB. Is the first one really that remarkable? I thought that GL (and non-working class PvdA) voters are very high propensity and thatPVV voters are low propensity. You are right and I said the same earlier this morning. It’s just that I thought the gap was smaller, and PVV was in it with a chance of still winning it. The 4%gap makes that less likely, but of course not impossible. It’s no secret that’s something I like. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 14:20:45 GMT
RTE are reporting mixed turnouts across Ireland. Donegal, Cork and Kerry in line with the last vote, but Dublin down. The lunchtime turnout in Jobstown (Tallaght) is 5.2 per cent, apparently the lowest identified thus far.
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Post by noorderling on Jun 7, 2024 15:00:21 GMT
On the basis of the results of 100 polling stations, it has been calculated that the battle for the last seat is between Volt and PVV, and there’s 0,002% in it.So Wilders may well lose a seat.
This morning I visited my mother in the facility where she lives. They were removing the polling station that had been there. The movers told me they had found a valid ballot paper there and in total had found 360. I referred to the recent election in India, where the original result had just one vote in it. Strangely enough they did not seem to be very interested in this.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 7, 2024 18:21:20 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 7, 2024 18:50:44 GMT
Maurice de Hond's Peil.nl asked people in front of 150 precincts: Sorry, wrong: His method was to get from 150 precincts the actual results, which were told to all those present at the countingProcess (making the ban on releasing data even more farcical). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 19:08:38 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 7, 2024 20:10:21 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 20:35:07 GMT
Any thoughts on who benefits on such a low turnout? |
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therealriga
Non-Aligned
none
Posts: 2,840
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Post by therealriga on Jun 8, 2024 6:54:27 GMT
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 8, 2024 8:33:58 GMT
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Post by observer on Jun 8, 2024 12:45:14 GMT
Very little grassroots activity in Spain which votes tomorrow.
We've had Royal Mail-delivered leaflets from the main parties. One from each.
But no local activity that I can see apart from a few banners in the main square
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