Wellingborough By-election - 15th February 2024

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Wellingborough By-election on the 15th February 2024.

The 11 candidates are:
Brick, Nick The Flying (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Gunn, Ana Savage (Liberal Democrats)
Habib, Ben (Reform UK)
Harrison, Helen Jane (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Jay Mala Post-Mortem, Ankit Love JKNPP (no description)
Kitchen, Gen (Labour Party)
Merola, Alex (Britain First - Stop The Boats)
Morris, Will (Green Party)
Pyne-Bailey, Andre (Independent)
Turner-Hawes, Marion Eileen (no description)
Watts, Kev (Independent)

Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 11 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 9 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 9 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 15th February 2024.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.

For clarity,

I have decided I will not be pointing out errors in calculations for this competition, as I have for recent ones. It's partly to save me time, but it is also to reward those who don't make mistakes.

A like on an entry will indicate it has been accepted into the competition.

[nyx]

Kitchen, Gen (Labour Party) 40.4%
Habib, Ben (Reform UK) 32.5%
Harrison, Helen Jane (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16.7%
Gunn, Ana Savage (Liberal Democrats) 4.4%
Morris, Will (Green Party) 3.1%
Merola, Alex (Britain First - Stop The Boats) 1.8%
Brick, Nick The Flying (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 0.3%
Turner-Hawes, Marion Eileen (no description) 0.3%
Pyne-Bailey, Andre (Independent) 0.2%
Watts, Kev (Independent) 0.2%
Jay Mala Post-Mortem, Ankit Love JKNPP (no description) 0.1%

[The Bishop]

I think that is what they call a "brave" prediction.....

[nyx]

Jan 25, 2024 13:58:12 GMT The Bishop said:

I think that is what they call a "brave" prediction.....

Quite.

I have a few reasons for doing so, namely-
Reform seems to have had a lot more media attention lately and they're standing their deputy leader/former MEP who seems to be actually running a significant campaign unlike previous by-elections;
The Tory campaign seems to be almost nonexistent and I'm not getting the impression of a motivated local party whatsoever thanks to the circumstances (see this Times article on it archive.is/sA9nk );
and the bookies have Reform almost neck and neck with the Tories to win.

I do nevertheless accept there is quite a good chance I will be entirely off and end up looking silly.

[greenhert]

My prediction is as follows:

Labour 42
Conservative 34
Reform UK 13
Liberal Democrats 3.5
Green 2.5
Independent (Watts) 2
Britain First 1.5
Marion Turner-Hawes 0.8
OMRLP 0.5
Ankit Love 0.1
Independent (Pyne-Bailey) 0.1

[johnloony]

00.3 OMRLP
03.7 LD
07.6 RefUK
32.9 Conservative
00.1 Ankit Love (-)
50.4 Labour
00.4 BrF
02.7 Green
00.6 Pyne-Bailey (Ind)
00.8 Turner-Hawes (-)
00.5 Watts (Ind)

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Labour 40.0
Conservative 32.0
Reform UK 17.2
Green 4.0
Liberal Democrats 2.5
Britain First 1.8
Watts 1.1
Marion Turner-Hawes 1.0
OMRLP 0.3
Pyne-Bailey 0.1
Ankit Love 0.0

[batman]

Jan 25, 2024 14:08:11 GMT nyx said:

Jan 25, 2024 13:58:12 GMT The Bishop said:

I think that is what they call a "brave" prediction.....

Quite.

I have a few reasons for doing so, namely-
Reform seems to have had a lot more media attention lately and they're standing their deputy leader/former MEP who seems to be actually running a significant campaign unlike previous by-elections;
The Tory campaign seems to be almost nonexistent and I'm not getting the impression of a motivated local party whatsoever thanks to the circumstances (see this Times article on it archive.is/sA9nk );
and the bookies have Reform almost neck and neck with the Tories to win.

I do nevertheless accept there is quite a good chance I will be entirely off and end up looking silly.

to be fair, I have heard some BBC by-election coverage in the last day or so at least mooting the possibility that the Tories lose second place to Reform. I personally am very sceptical that the Tories can really do quite as badly as that

[YL]

Lab 44.1
Con 35.2
Reform 10.9
Lib Dem 4.2
Green 2.3
Britain First 1.4
Loony 0.6
Turner-Hawes 0.6
Watts 0.5
Pyne-Bailey 0.1
Love 0.1

[Tony Otim]

Lab 43.7
Con 35.1
RefUK 5.8
Grn 4.2
LD 3.6
Watts 2.7
Turner-Hawe 2.1
Britain First 1.3
OMRLP 0.9
Pyne-Bailey 0.4
Love 0.2

[kevinf]

Lab 53
Con 21
Reform 17
Green 4
LD 3.7
Britain First 0.4
Pine Bailey Ind 0.3
OMRLP 0.2
Watts Ind 0.2
Ankit Love ND 0.1
Turner-Hawes ND 0.1

[peterl]

Lab 44.7
Con 30.2
Reform 15.1
Green 3.9
LD 3.5
BF 1.2
Pyne-Bailey 0.6
OMRLP 0.3
Watts 0.3
Ankit Love 0.1
Turner-Hawes 0.1

[Sg1]

Lab: 43.2
Con: 40.9
Reform: 6.7
Lib Dem: 3.8
Green: 2.8
Britain First: 0.8
Turner-Hawes: 0.7
Pyne-Bailey: 0.4
OMRLP: 0.3
Watts: 0.3
Ankit: 0.1

[batman]

Lab 45.6
C 30.1
RefUK 12.8
LD 3.8
Green 3.1
Ind Watts 1.6
BF 1.2
Ind Pyne-Bailey 0.8
OMRLP 0.4
Turner-Hawes 0.4
Ankit Love 0.2

[froome]

Labour 39.6
Conservative 32.9
Reform 13,4
Lib Dem 4.3
Green 3.6
Turner-Hawes (no description) 2.6
Watts (Ind) 1.6
Britain First 0.8
OMRLP 0.7
Pyne-Bailey (Ind) 0.4
Love (no description) 0.1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Brick, Nick The Flying (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 0.6
Gunn, Ana Savage (Liberal Democrats) 4.7
Habib, Ben (Reform UK) 6.7
Harrison, Helen Jane (The Conservative Party Candidate) 39.9
Jay Mala Post-Mortem, Ankit Love JKNPP (no description) 0.1
Kitchen, Gen (Labour Party) 44.2
Merola, Alex (Britain First - Stop The Boats) 0.6
Morris, Will (Green Party) 2.2
Pyne-Bailey, Andre (Independent) 0.4
Turner-Hawes, Marion Eileen (no description) 0.2
Watts, Kev (Independent) 0.4

[Pete Whitehead]

Lab	44.9%
Con	34.5%
Ref	11.4%
LD	3.2%
Grn	2.9%
BF	1.6%
OMRLP	0.7%
ND (M T-H)	0.3%
Ind (K W)	0.2%
Ind (A P-B)	0.2%
ND (A L)	0.1%

[manchesterman]

Lab 40%
Con 31%
Reform 17%
Lib Dem 4.4%
Green 4.2%
BF 1.7%
OMRLP 0.6%
Watts 0.4%
Turner-Hawes 0.3
Pyne-Bailey 0.3
Love 0.1

[bigfatron]

Lab 44.2%
Con 34.4%
Ref 9.9%
LD 3.9%
Grn 3.9%
BF 1.4%
OMRLP 0.7%
ND (M T-H) 0.2%
Ind (K W) 0.2%
Ind (A P-B) 0.1%
ND (A L) 0.1%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All 14 predictions made so far have been entered into the competition.

Posters have until 10pm tonight, close of poll, to submit entries.