Wellingborough By-election - 15th February 2024

[froome]

Feb 15, 2024 8:47:30 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

All 14 predictions made so far have been entered into the competition.

Posters have until 10pm tonight, close of poll, to submit entries.

There have been 15 predictions so far. You seem to have missed out mine.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 15, 2024 9:06:27 GMT froome said:

Feb 15, 2024 8:47:30 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

All 14 predictions made so far have been entered into the competition.

Posters have until 10pm tonight, close of poll, to submit entries.

There have been 15 predictions so far. You seem to have missed out mine.

I'd done the tab with your prediction on it, but not entered your name on the list, hence no like on your post, doh. Error would have been caught when tallying results but thanks for the prompt anyway.

[borisminor]

MRL - Flying Brick 0.2%
LD - Gunn - 6.4%
Ref - Habib - 14.7%
C - Harrison - 29.3%
ND - Post-Mortem - 0.4%
Lab - Kitchen - 39.0%
BF - Merola - 2.0%
Green - Morris - 7.0%
Ind - Pyne-Bailey - 0.3%
ND - Turner-Hawes - 0.2%
Ind - Watts - 0.5%

[LDCaerdydd]

Monster Raving Loony, Nick the Flying Brick = 0.3
Liberal Democrats, Ana Gunn = 5
Reform UK, Ben Habib = 9
Conservative, Helen Harrison = 39
Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem = 0.1
Labour, Gen Kitchen = 38.5
Britain First, Alex Merola = 0.1
Green, Will Morris, 3
Independent, Andre Pyne-Bailey = 1.5
Marion Turner-Hawes = 1.5
Independent, Kev Watts = 2

_{(Yes, predicting a v v narrow Con Hold)}

[Andrew_S]

Lab 43%
Con 36%
Ref 9.5%
LD 5.2%
Green 4%
BF 1.3%
OMRLP 0.2%
ND / Post-Mortem 0.2%
Ind / Pyne-Bailey 0.2%
ND / Turner-Hawes 0.2%
Ind / Watts 0.2%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All 18 predictions made so far have been entered into the competition.

Posters have until 10pm tonight, close of poll, to submit entries. This is your final call.

[haribo]

Lab 42.8%
Con 32.9%
Ref 13.8%
LD 3.9%
Grn 3.9%
OMRLP 0.7%
BF 0.4%
ND (M T-H) 0.2%
Ind (K W) 0.2%
Ind (A P-B) 0.1%
ND (A L) 0.1%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Competition now closed

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

There are 19 entries for this competition.

I will post the results sometime in the morning.

Prediction Ranges

Brick, Nick The Flying (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 0.90% by Tony Otim a range of 0.70%
Gunn, Ana Savage (Liberal Democrats) 1.90% by doktorb to 6.40% by borisminor a range of 4.50%
Habib, Ben (Reform UK) 5.80% by Tony Otim to 32.50% by nyx a range of 26.70%
Harrison, Helen Jane (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16.70% by nyx to 40.90% by Sg1 a range of 24.20%
Jay Mala Post-Mortem, Ankit Love JKNPP (no description) 0.00% by doktorb to 0.40% by borisminor a range of 0.40%
Kitchen, Gen (Labour Party) 38.50% by LSCaerdydd to 53.00% by kevinf a range of 14.50%
Merola, Alex (Britain First - Stop The Boats) 0.10% by LSCaerdydd to 2.00% by borisminor a range of 1.90%
Morris, Will (Green Party) 2.20% by DHAA to 7.00% by borisminor a range of 5.00%
Pyne-Bailey, Andre (Independent) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 1.50% by LDCaerdydd a range of 1.40%
Turner-Hawes, Marion Eileen (no description) 0.10% by kevinf & peterl to 2.60% by froome a range of 2.50%
Watts, Kev (Independent) 0.20% by 6 predictors to 2.00% by greenhert & LDCaerdydd a range of 1.80%


17 out of 19 predictors have Labour winning over the Conservatives ranging from 2.30% by Sg1 to 32.00% by kevinf a range of 24.00%
1 out of 19 predictors, nyx, has Labour winning over Reform by 7.90%
1 out of 19 predictors, LDCaerydd has Conservatives winning over Labour by 0.50%

[johnloony]

Feb 15, 2024 22:12:13 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

There are 19 entries for this competition.
I will post the results sometime in the morning.

17 out of 19 predictors have Labour winning over the Conservatives ranging from 2.30% by Sg1 to 32.00% by johnloony a range of 24.00%
1 out of 19 predictors, nyx, has Labour winning over Reform by 7.90%
1 out of 19 predictors, LDCaerydd has Conservatives winning over Labour by 0.50%

I predicted a Labour margin of 17.5% not 32.0%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 15, 2024 23:57:47 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 15, 2024 22:12:13 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

There are 19 entries for this competition.
I will post the results sometime in the morning.

17 out of 19 predictors have Labour winning over the Conservatives ranging from 2.30% by Sg1 to 32.00% by johnloony a range of 24.00%
1 out of 19 predictors, nyx, has Labour winning over Reform by 7.90%
1 out of 19 predictors, LDCaerydd has Conservatives winning over Labour by 0.50%

I predicted a Labour margin of 17.5% not 32.0%

You are correct it was kevinf, corrected.

competition result will follow within an hour or two.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Wellingborough By-Election Prediction Competition Result

Congratulations to the winner batman who won this competition at a stride. Well done also to peterl who finished second and to froome who completes the podium in third.

Final Points

batman 11.7
peterl 16.5
froome 18.3
Pete Whitehead 18.9
greenhert 19.3
YL 21.3
haribo 21.3
manchesterman 22.7
bigfatron 22.7
kevinf 23.5
doktorb 24.9
borisminor 24.9
Tony Otim 25.1
johnloony 25.9
Andrew_S 25.9
DHAA 28.7
Sg1 32.7
nyx 39.3
LDCaerydd 40.4

Points before Penalties

batman 11.7
peterl 16.5
froome 18.3
Pete Whitehead 18.9
greenhert 19.3
haribo 20.3
YL 21.3
bigfatron 21.7
manchesterman 22.7
kevinf 23.5
doktorb 24.9
borisminor 24.9
Tony Otim 25.1
johnloony 25.9
Andrew_S 25.9
DHAA 28.7
LDCaerydd 31.4
Sg1 32.7
nyx 39.3

Percentages used were as posted on the Wellingborough By-Election Thread, which add up with rounding to 99.9.

Thank you to all who entered.

DHAA

[froome]

Congratulations to all, and especially thanks to Defenestrated Fipplebox for overseeing it.

It is ironic that I achieve a top 3 result in a constituency I have never set foot in and know nothing about, but get a much poorer result in a constituency I know well. Probably says more about me.

I thought the Conservative vote would be a little more resilient than it proved to be, but looking back on it now, I should have realised that it was particularly fragile here.

I am annoyed that I didn't go for my first instinct, which was put Turner-Hawes above the Green Party candidate, as I suspected she had a high profile from her previous candidacies.

[peterl]

My thanks also to the returning officer Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith and to everyone who refrained from cheering so we could hear the result.

[batman]

In all modesty, I based my prediction largely on what we were told by our regional party here in London. They really were supremely confident, but they were more nervous about Kingswood. But I thought there might be a tiny bit of slippage bearing in mind recent political ructions in our party, otherwise perhaps I might have been even closer.