Local Council by-elections 15th February 2024

[Tony Otim]

DACORUM DC; Tring West & Rural (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
HICKS, Mike (Conservative)
LAWLER, James F (Labour)
SMITH-WRIGHT, Caroline A (Liberal Democrat)
STOPPS, Joe (Green)

2023: LD 1035, 844; Con 501, 462; Grn 376; Lab 164, 153
2019: LD 899, 824; Con 529, 507; Grn 438; Lab 171
2015: Con 1244, 1162; LD 1076, 859; UKIP 419; Grn 400; Lab 313, 209
2011: LD 1017, 890; Con 940, 851; Lab 219, 211
2007: Con 919, 866; LD 895, 883; Lab 93, 88

Mike Hicks was Conservative councillor for the ward 2015-19 and unsuccessful candidate in 2019 and 2023. Joe Stopps was the Green candidate here last year, when Jim Lawler stood for Labour in Tring Central (he also contested the Tring county division (which contains this ward) in 2021).

Current Council: LD 27; Con 18; Lab 3; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



EAST HAMPSHIRE DC; Four Marks & Medstead (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
RICHARDSON, Roland Edwin (Liberal Democrat)
SOUTHERN-REASON, Kerry Jane (Conservative)

2023: LD 1181, 1065, 1057; Con 1094, 1090, 1046; Lab 453, 264
2019: Con 1439, 1281, 1263; LD 819; Grn 671; Lab 222, 196, 145

Roland Richardson was the second Lib Dem candidate last year and was also runner-up in the Alton Rural county division (which contains this ward) in 2021.

Current Council: Con 19; LD 13; Whitehill & Bordon Community Party 6; Grn 2; Ind 1; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Avenue (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BEESON, Rhiannon Margaret (Liberal Democrat)
HAYWARD, Alex (Conservative)
RUSSELL, James Edward (Green)
WHALE, Michael John (Independent)
WOOD, Karen Denise (Labour)

2023: Lab 1662; LD 1174; Grn 330; Con 94
2022: Lab 1764; LD 1520; Grn 280; Con 108
2021: LD 1759; Lab 1297; Grn 364; Con 189; Ind 143
2019: Lab 1630; LD 1614; Grn 411; Con 114
2018: Lab 1910, 1760, 1686; LD 1847, 1813, 1727; Grn 647; Con 198, 162, 150.

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Alex Hayward (Con) has stood here in 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023 – (in 2021 the Conservative candidate was David Hayward) and also regularly stood here on previous boundaries.. James Russell has contested the last 3 elections here for the Greens (and also back in 2004 on old boundaries). Karen Wood stood for Labour in West Carr last May.

Current Council: LD 32; Lab 23; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NEATH PORT TALBOT UA; Briton Ferry East (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
PEMBERTON, Kris (Independent)
RICE, Gareth (Labour)
WOODHOUSE, Stephanie (Green)

2022: Ind 351; Lab 349; Grn 87

Gareth Rice was the Labour candidate in 2022. The independent elected in 2022 was the sitting councillor for the ward on previous boundaries, elected in 2017 for Labour defeating an independent who had been elected for Labour at the previous elections – something of a pattern there.


NEATH PORT TALBOT, Rhos (PC died)
Candidates:
DAVIES, Noel (Labour)
JAY, Susan Helen (Liberal Democrat)
OAKWOOD, Kathy (Green)
VINCENT, Matty (Plaid Cymru)
WOOLFORD, Bob (Independent)

2022: PC 486; Lab 403

Current Council: Lab 25; Ind 15; PC 11; Dyffryn Ind 2; LD 2; Unaffiliated Ind 1; Grn 1; 3 vacancies

[Tony Otim]

This week is rather interesting in that none of the seats are remotely safe based on past results, except for Tring and even there it wasn't that long ago the Conservatives held both seats...

[iain]

Jan 22, 2024 14:11:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

NEATH PORT TALBOT, Rhos (PC died)
Candidates:
DAVIES, Noel (Labour)
JAY, Susan Helen (Liberal Democrat)
OAKWOOD, Kathy (Green)
VINCENT, Matty (Plaid Cymru)
WOOLFORD, Bob (Independent)

2022: PC 486; Lab 403

Current Council: Lab 25; Ind 15; PC 11; Dyffryn Ind 2; LD 2; Unaffiliated Ind 1; Grn 1; 3 vacancies

One of the areas being moved into Brecon & Radnor, and I have seen at least one pic on twitter of the Lib Dems canvassing - will be interesting to see if they are able to make any impact in a first runout in naturally unfriendly territory.

[andrewteale]

Jan 22, 2024 14:11:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Avenue (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BEESON, Rhiannon Margaret (Liberal Democrat)
HAYWARD, Alex (Conservative)
RUSSELL, James Edward (Green)
WHALE, Michael John (Independent)
WOOD, Karen Denise (Labour)

2023: Lab 1662; LD 1174; Grn 330; Con 94
2022: Lab 1764; LD 1520; Grn 280; Con 108
2021: LD 1759; Lab 1297; Grn 364; Con 189; Ind 143
2019: Lab 1630; LD 1614; Grn 411; Con 114
2018: Lab 1910, 1760, 1686; LD 1847, 1813, 1727; Grn 647; Con 198, 162, 150.

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Alex Hayward (Con) has stood here in 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023 – (in 2021 the Conservative candidate was David Hayward) and also regularly stood here on previous boundaries.. James Russell has contested the last 3 elections here for the Greens (and also back in 2004 on old boundaries). Karen Wood stood for Labour in West Carr last May.

Current Council: LD 32; Lab 23; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Alexander and David Hayward appear to be the same person - it looks like the council website got his first name and middle name in the wrong order in 2021. I'll fix LEAP.

[Tony Otim]

Jan 22, 2024 14:56:04 GMT andrewteale said:

Jan 22, 2024 14:11:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Avenue (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BEESON, Rhiannon Margaret (Liberal Democrat)
HAYWARD, Alex (Conservative)
RUSSELL, James Edward (Green)
WHALE, Michael John (Independent)
WOOD, Karen Denise (Labour)

2023: Lab 1662; LD 1174; Grn 330; Con 94
2022: Lab 1764; LD 1520; Grn 280; Con 108
2021: LD 1759; Lab 1297; Grn 364; Con 189; Ind 143
2019: Lab 1630; LD 1614; Grn 411; Con 114
2018: Lab 1910, 1760, 1686; LD 1847, 1813, 1727; Grn 647; Con 198, 162, 150.

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Alex Hayward (Con) has stood here in 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023 – (in 2021 the Conservative candidate was David Hayward) and also regularly stood here on previous boundaries.. James Russell has contested the last 3 elections here for the Greens (and also back in 2004 on old boundaries). Karen Wood stood for Labour in West Carr last May.

Current Council: LD 32; Lab 23; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Alexander and David Hayward appear to be the same person - it looks like the council website got his first name and middle name in the wrong order in 2021. I'll fix LEAP.

I did wonder about that, but the new SOPN only has Alex listed as a name, so I wasn't sure...

[threecrowns]

Jan 22, 2024 14:56:04 GMT andrewteale said:

Jan 22, 2024 14:11:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Avenue (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BEESON, Rhiannon Margaret (Liberal Democrat)
HAYWARD, Alex (Conservative)
RUSSELL, James Edward (Green)
WHALE, Michael John (Independent)
WOOD, Karen Denise (Labour)

2023: Lab 1662; LD 1174; Grn 330; Con 94
2022: Lab 1764; LD 1520; Grn 280; Con 108
2021: LD 1759; Lab 1297; Grn 364; Con 189; Ind 143
2019: Lab 1630; LD 1614; Grn 411; Con 114
2018: Lab 1910, 1760, 1686; LD 1847, 1813, 1727; Grn 647; Con 198, 162, 150.

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Alex Hayward (Con) has stood here in 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023 – (in 2021 the Conservative candidate was David Hayward) and also regularly stood here on previous boundaries.. James Russell has contested the last 3 elections here for the Greens (and also back in 2004 on old boundaries). Karen Wood stood for Labour in West Carr last May.

Current Council: LD 32; Lab 23; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Alexander and David Hayward appear to be the same person - it looks like the council website got his first name and middle name in the wrong order in 2021. I'll fix LEAP.

I think it is Alexander. For completeness, Karen Wood stood here in 2021. Should be a very interesting fight, this.

[evergreenadam]

I see Labour are not standing a candidate in the very tight East Hampshire contest, not sure if on purpose.

[John Chanin]

Jan 22, 2024 17:25:12 GMT evergreenadam said:

I see Labour are not standing a candidate in the very tight East Hampshire contest, not sure if on purpose.

Rural Hampshire isn't exactly promising territory for Labour, and they often don't stand in such wards at regular May elections. However I see that not only did they do so last time, but got a surprisingly high vote from the village of Medstead/Four Marks (really one place, with a population >5000). So I'd guess it's on purpose.

[Khunanup]

Jan 22, 2024 17:40:15 GMT John Chanin said:

Jan 22, 2024 17:25:12 GMT evergreenadam said:

I see Labour are not standing a candidate in the very tight East Hampshire contest, not sure if on purpose.

Rural Hampshire isn't exactly promising territory for Labour, and they often don't stand in such wards at regular May elections. However I see that not only did they do so last time, but got a surprisingly high vote from the village of Medstead/Four Marks (really one place, with a population >5000). So I'd guess it's on purpose.

It's effectively outer Alton which is right at the edge of the London commuter belt proper so you're increasingly getting refugees from the metropolis who have been priced out moving to the area (which has excellent rail links with it's direct line to Waterloo). That's obviously most advantageous to the Lib Dems as they have more pull with the existing population too but that's also going to increasingly give Labour a core base vote (and of course in urban Alton it's more than core and they do win).

Also compared to '19 there was no Green so that clearly assisted Labour's vote shares.

[k9]

Jan 22, 2024 18:18:27 GMT Khunanup said:

Jan 22, 2024 17:40:15 GMT John Chanin said:

Rural Hampshire isn't exactly promising territory for Labour, and they often don't stand in such wards at regular May elections. However I see that not only did they do so last time, but got a surprisingly high vote from the village of Medstead/Four Marks (really one place, with a population >5000). So I'd guess it's on purpose.

It's effectively outer Alton which is right at the edge of the London commuter belt proper so you're increasingly getting refugees from the metropolis who have been priced out moving to the area (which has excellent rail links with it's direct line to Waterloo). That's obviously most advantageous to the Lib Dems as they have more pull with the existing population too but that's also going to increasingly give Labour a core base vote (and of course in urban Alton it's more than core and they do win).

Also compared to '19 there was no Green so that clearly assisted Labour's vote shares.

Four Marks has a train station on the Watercress Line which is the highest operational station in South England. 644 ft above sea level I believe. The area around Blackberry Lane houses regularly go for £1m+.

[Terry Weldon]

Some LD activists from neighbouring constituencies like the Farnham & Bordon will be helping out in Four Marks (self included), alongside the rest of the E Hants team. I'll be there on Friday.

[kevinf]

Jan 31, 2024 21:50:42 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Some LD activists from neighbouring constituencies like the Farnham & Bordon will be helping out in Four Marks (self included), alongside the rest of the E Hants team. I'll be there on Friday.

How did it go? Asking for the prediction competition…

[phil156]

They all count tonight except I have not heard of Decorum who keep asking me security questions

[minionofmidas]

Feb 15, 2024 4:34:30 GMT phil156 said:

They all count tonight except I have not heard of Decorum who keep asking me security questions

they are not acting with dacorum.

[Chris from Brum]

Get your boiled egg and toast ready, Andrew's Previews are here.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-two-parliamentary-and-five-local-by-elections-of-15th-february-2024-342642d31e82

[phil156]

Feb 15, 2024 6:59:25 GMT minionofmidas said:

Feb 15, 2024 4:34:30 GMT phil156 said:

They all count tonight except I have not heard of Decorum who keep asking me security questions

they are not acting with dacorum.

      Not even the Labour candidate knows and he is trying to find out, Wellingborough Parliamentary vote is on that councils website and the venue too !!

[Crimson King]

I can’t work out on the map exactly where it used to be sited, but my first job as a doctor was as a medical house officer at Neath General hospital which was then in Briton Ferry. The most memorably thing about the post was the parking space reserved outside the pub at the end of the hospital drive for the on call SHO in case of emergency calls

[phil156]

Feb 15, 2024 8:16:53 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Get your boiled egg and toast ready, Andrew's Previews are here.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-two-parliamentary-and-five-local-by-elections-of-15th-february-2024-342642d31e82

     Hope your candidate in Decorum knows the time of the count and enjoying her egg & toast because nobody else seems to know 

[carolus]

Feb 15, 2024 10:19:48 GMT phil156 said:

Feb 15, 2024 8:16:53 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Get your boiled egg and toast ready, Andrew's Previews are here.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-two-parliamentary-and-five-local-by-elections-of-15th-february-2024-342642d31e82

     Hope your candidate in Decorum knows the time of the count and enjoying her egg & toast because nobody else seems to know 

They're counting overnight.

[phil156]

Cheers for that news so they all counting tonight