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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 9, 2024 12:58:17 GMT
The North Atlantic Current is commonly referred to and is partially a continuation of the Gulf Stream. Not much of it makes its way up the Irish Sea, but the water there is nevertheless usually warmer than the water in the North Sea is.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 9, 2024 13:07:55 GMT
A few observations on the Crewe Central result, an area I knew quite well having represented parts of it for 10-26 years.
1. The winning candidate effectively ran as an independent localist.
2. He runs one of the few long-established businesses on the street that runs through the heart of the ward.
3. By donating half his business premises as a Covid vaccination centre he effectively gained local hero status.
4. The Labour Party locally is not, never has been, good at campaigning.
5. The two most deprived wards in Crewe now have Conservative councillors. There are no Conservative borough councillors in Nantwich. The world is upside-down.
6. At least Silvester made no progress.
7. It is an area with big issues and petty issues. The petty ones swing more votes than the big ones.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 9, 2024 13:14:13 GMT
The North Atlantic Current is commonly referred to and is partially a continuation of the Gulf Stream. Not much of it makes its way up the Irish Sea, but the water there is nevertheless usually warmer than the water in the North Sea is. Surely the effect here is by the North Atlantic Drift? This is not UP the Irish Sea but Down from the north. It is affected by the Gulf Stream but also by other factors including Arctic ice melt and differential pressures and temperatures in Artic Sea, North Sea and the east seaboard of the North Atlantic, but with further variables on the Irish Sea, because the Drift proper goes down the other side of Ireland. This is complex stuff, but it is very crass to state 'Gulf Stream' as so many in Britain do. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 13:14:41 GMT
I don't count "Independent gain from Independent" as a real thing. I agree. As I see it an Independent is just that a 'non-party' or even anti-party individual representative. Thus the concept of Gain or Loss must be carefully and narrowly defined. If an Independent dies, resigns or retires and is replaced by another Independent, it is merely a change or substitution. There is no Gain. And if the seat is won by a political party it is a Win but not a Gain, because there was no one there in place to be 'defeated'. If an Independent stands for re-election and is defeated by a political party candidate or another Independent, that is a Win and a Gain, and should be termed 'Labour Gain from an Independent (NOT from the Independents because they are not a party).' OR 'Independent Gain from the sitting Independent'. I think there is also a substantial independent party vote in some places, much like there is for actual parties, though more impacted by other factors than normal party votes |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 9, 2024 13:22:04 GMT
I agree. As I see it an Independent is just that a 'non-party' or even anti-party individual representative. Thus the concept of Gain or Loss must be carefully and narrowly defined. If an Independent dies, resigns or retires and is replaced by another Independent, it is merely a change or substitution. There is no Gain. And if the seat is won by a political party it is a Win but not a Gain, because there was no one there in place to be 'defeated'. If an Independent stands for re-election and is defeated by a political party candidate or another Independent, that is a Win and a Gain, and should be termed 'Labour Gain from an Independent (NOT from the Independents because they are not a party).' OR 'Independent Gain from the sitting Independent'. I think there is also a substantial independent party vote in some places, much like there is for actual parties, though more impacted by other factors than normal party votes I think that to be mistaken. The effect you are identifying is either a local dislike of a once dominant political party : Or seeing an Independent Group as a quasi party and treating them as a party and not as Independents, which is correct because they often are. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 9, 2024 14:21:05 GMT
The North Atlantic Current is commonly referred to and is partially a continuation of the Gulf Stream. Not much of it makes its way up the Irish Sea, but the water there is nevertheless usually warmer than the water in the North Sea is. Surely the effect here is by the North Atlantic Drift? This is not UP the Irish Sea but Down from the north. It is affected by the Gulf Stream but also by other factors including Arctic ice melt and differential pressures and temperatures in Artic Sea, North Sea and the east seaboard of the North Atlantic, but with further variables on the Irish Sea, because the Drift proper goes down the other side of Ireland. This is complex stuff, but it is very crass to state 'Gulf Stream' as so many in Britain do. Wikipedia (not automatically correct, but looking at the references it seems to be citing enough specialist literature that I would assume it's broadly reliable here) suggests that the North Atlantic Drift and the North Atlantic Current are effectively synonyms. Without doubting the complexity, it is true that part of the reason the British Isles have milder weather than parts of America or continental Europe on the same latitude is ocean current and that within the British Isles this is truer of the western parts than the eastern parts. "The Gulf Stream" is an oversimplification, but the underlying point is still valid. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 9, 2024 16:06:32 GMT
Surely the effect here is by the North Atlantic Drift? This is not UP the Irish Sea but Down from the north. It is affected by the Gulf Stream but also by other factors including Arctic ice melt and differential pressures and temperatures in Artic Sea, North Sea and the east seaboard of the North Atlantic, but with further variables on the Irish Sea, because the Drift proper goes down the other side of Ireland. This is complex stuff, but it is very crass to state 'Gulf Stream' as so many in Britain do. Wikipedia (not automatically correct, but looking at the references it seems to be citing enough specialist literature that I would assume it's broadly reliable here) suggests that the North Atlantic Drift and the North Atlantic Current are effectively synonyms. Without doubting the complexity, it is true that part of the reason the British Isles have milder weather than parts of America or continental Europe on the same latitude is ocean current and that within the British Isles this is truer of the western parts than the eastern parts. "The Gulf Stream" is an oversimplification, but the underlying point is still valid. Well! Not worth a contest, but use of Gulf Stream is not a oversimplification : It is just plain wrong. And the other facet to our climate advantage is the prevailing westerly (onshore) wind. This brings the relative warmth of the Atlantic, plus clouds and rain; whereas the continental effect of North America has cooler off-shore winds affecting their east coast and overriding much of the Gulf Stream effect. We are doubly lucky which is just as well as we are much farther north relative to USA and Canada than many in Britain realise. At first sight it ought to be much colder here than it is. When we lived at Torridon in Wester Ross we were on a latitude nearer to the mouth of Hudson's Bay than to the great cities of Toronto or new York, both of which being far far colder than we were. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 9, 2024 17:07:12 GMT
Is it too late for him to be the RefUK candidate? Even RefUK have standards ... Yeah, but they're not very high ones. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Feb 9, 2024 22:10:00 GMT
GWBWI
PC +78
LDm +61
Con -2
Lab -84
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 10, 2024 12:00:06 GMT
A few observations on the Crewe Central result, an area I knew quite well having represented parts of it for 10-26 years. 1. The winning candidate effectively ran as an independent localist.2. He runs one of the few long-established businesses on the street that runs through the heart of the ward. 3. By donating half his business premises as a Covid vaccination centre he effectively gained local hero status. 4. The Labour Party locally is not, never has been, good at campaigning. 5. The two most deprived wards in Crewe now have Conservative councillors. There are no Conservative borough councillors in Nantwich. The world is upside-down. 6. At least Silvester made no progress. 7. It is an area with big issues and petty issues. The petty ones swing more votes than the big ones. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 10, 2024 12:51:06 GMT
A few observations on the Crewe Central result, an area I knew quite well having represented parts of it for 10-26 years. 1. The winning candidate effectively ran as an independent localist.2. He runs one of the few long-established businesses on the street that runs through the heart of the ward. 3. By donating half his business premises as a Covid vaccination centre he effectively gained local hero status. 4. The Labour Party locally is not, never has been, good at campaigning. 5. The two most deprived wards in Crewe now have Conservative councillors. There are no Conservative borough councillors in Nantwich. The world is upside-down. 6. At least Silvester made no progress. 7. It is an area with big issues and petty issues. The petty ones swing more votes than the big ones. Yes, I've seen lots of "reporting back" leaflets from Conservative MPs printed largely on a green background and no reference (other than in tiny legal lettering) to party affiliation. What slightly amuses me is the outrage from the local Labour Party who thus fall into the trap of expending their energy agreeing with each other that it's disgraceful, rather than talking to voters. (Ideally in the relevant town ...  ) |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 11, 2024 13:38:38 GMT
A few observations on the Crewe Central result, an area I knew quite well having represented parts of it for 10-26 years. 1. The winning candidate effectively ran as an independent localist. 2. He runs one of the few long-established businesses on the street that runs through the heart of the ward. 3. By donating half his business premises as a Covid vaccination centre he effectively gained local hero status. 4. The Labour Party locally is not, never has been, good at campaigning.5. The two most deprived wards in Crewe now have Conservative councillors. There are no Conservative borough councillors in Nantwich. The world is upside-down. 6. At least Silvester made no progress. 7. It is an area with big issues and petty issues. The petty ones swing more votes than the big ones. One further observation on this - they lost the neighbouring (and even more deprived) St Barnabas ward to a Conservative in pretty much the same way in May 2023. Which may have been a clue as to what could happen. |
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