Local council by-elections 8th February 2024

[michaelarden]

Feb 8, 2024 22:58:46 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

GWYNEDD Criccieth

WILLIAMS, Sian (Plaid Cymru) 381
ALLPORT, John (Independent) 129
JOYCE, Andrew Richard (Liberal Democrat) 11
GENTRY, Bernard (Conservative) 9

Spoilt paper 1

Home of Lloyd George?

[ricmk]

Here’s the website of the winning candidate in Crewe: www.crewecentral.org.uk/

Judge for yourself but I think it’s one of the most impressive I’ve ever seen for an individual Council candidate. The only thing missing is, er, which party he’s standing for.

I’d heard the Lib Dems were working Northampton but didn’t hold out much hope so well done to them. Not a lot to celebrate for Northants Lib Dems for a long time so good for them.

[londonw5er]

Considering that Crewe Central is in a marginal constituency that should be a key Labour target, tonight's result doesn't say much for the state of their ground game in the constituency. They should have extensive contact data across the constituency by now and and been able to contact Labour inclined voters in the ward to a) encourage them to vote in the by election b) warn them not to be fooled by the Tory candidate trying to hide his political allegiance from them. Had they done those things effectively then I expect the result would have been different.

Of course, the Tories will not be able to pull off the same trick in the general election and the national swing may be sufficient for Labour to gain the seat without needing a strong local campaign. Even so, if the Tories manage to hold on here against the tide on election night I will not be entirely surprised.

[YL]

Labour also lost a seat in Crewe St Barnabas to the Tories last May. I suspect it is not difficult for Cheshire East council to become poorly regarded in Crewe.

[k9]

Feb 9, 2024 2:39:35 GMT londonw5er said:

Considering that Crewe Central is in a marginal constituency that should be a key Labour target, tonight's result doesn't say much for the state of their ground game in the constituency. They should have extensive contact data across the constituency by now and and been able to contact Labour inclined voters in the ward to a) encourage them to vote in the by election b) warn them not to be fooled by the Tory candidate trying to hide his political allegiance from them. Had they done those things effectively then I expect the result would have been different.

Labour have been door knocking /delivering in Nantwich during the by-election period. The survey form on the leaflet asks Nantwich residents who they will vote for in the Crewe Central by-election. (Crewe is 5-6 miles away)

Hardly a means of building faith in the Labour team's organisational skills.

[andrewp]

Not sure we have recorded the actual numbers from West Northants

Carl Squires LD 820
Daniel Soan Con 746
Clare Robertson-Marriott Lab 547

[Rutlander]

Feb 9, 2024 7:58:52 GMT andrewp said:

Not sure we have recorded the actual numbers from West Northants

Carl Squires LD 820
Daniel Soan Con 746
Clare Robertson-Marriott Lab 547

A good LD win from third; I expect the attention of LAB was on Wellingborough (possibly the CONs too)

[andrewp]

Feb 9, 2024 8:11:34 GMT Rutlander said:

Feb 9, 2024 7:58:52 GMT andrewp said:

Not sure we have recorded the actual numbers from West Northants

Carl Squires LD 820
Daniel Soan Con 746
Clare Robertson-Marriott Lab 547

A good LD win from third; I expect the attention of LAB was on Wellingborough (possibly the CONs too)

The  LD candidate lived in the ward aswell and is chairman of one of the parish councils whilst the Lab candidate lived a little way away.

[iainbhx]

Feb 9, 2024 0:24:52 GMT michaelarden said:

Feb 8, 2024 22:58:46 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

GWYNEDD Criccieth

WILLIAMS, Sian (Plaid Cymru) 381
ALLPORT, John (Independent) 129
JOYCE, Andrew Richard (Liberal Democrat) 11
GENTRY, Bernard (Conservative) 9

Spoilt paper 1

Home of Lloyd George?

Grew up in Llanystumdwy which is between Criccieth and Pwllheli but not part of this ward.

[batman]

I was tempted to go for a LD win in Northants & should have looked more closely at whether it was in the parliamentary by-election zone or not. I will try to be more thorough when doing my predictions after this. Not sure anyone non-local could have easily foreseen the size of the Plaid victory in Criccieth.

[andrewp]

Feb 9, 2024 9:28:14 GMT batman said:

I was tempted to go for a LD win in Northants & should have looked more closely at whether it was in the parliamentary by-election zone or not. I will try to be more thorough when doing my predictions after this. Not sure anyone non-local could have easily foreseen the size of the Plaid victory in Criccieth.

No, I thought the Independent in Criccieth had the signs of a potential winner there- very local, runs the shop etc- I’m surprised that he didn’t at least get close. It would have been a gamble to predict a Conservative win in Crewe too.

[carolus]

Feb 9, 2024 9:28:14 GMT batman said:

I was tempted to go for a LD win in Northants & should have looked more closely at whether it was in the parliamentary by-election zone or not. I will try to be more thorough when doing my predictions after this. Not sure anyone non-local could have easily foreseen the size of the Plaid victory in Criccieth.

Perhaps it's time to begin the voteuk byelection ward visits

[batman]

If I were retired I could spend more time on stuff like this (although at the moment actual campaigning is far more important). But I'm not, in fact recently with the musical I've been even busier workwise than usual. Because of various other commitments I haven't been able to campaign for a couple of weeks, hopefully next week I may be able to find some time.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 9, 2024 8:11:34 GMT Rutlander said:

Feb 9, 2024 7:58:52 GMT andrewp said:

Not sure we have recorded the actual numbers from West Northants

Carl Squires LD 820
Daniel Soan Con 746
Clare Robertson-Marriott Lab 547

A good LD win from third; I expect the attention of LAB was on Wellingborough (possibly the CONs too)

There was a decent amount of Labour campaigning done by locals, even if it won't have attracted as much outside support as it would have done if Wellingborough wasn't happening.

I don't think we'll be too displeased with the result - gaining vote share at the same time as the Lib Dems surged means that we must have picked up enough votes to counteract the squeeze, and 2021 was a much less impressive result for the Tories in Northampton than it was elsewhere in the country. Turn the tactical squeeze the other way in the general election and those are the sort of numbers that mean a comfortable Labour gain in Northampton South.

Needless to say, no such positive spin can be applied to the Crewe result.

[andrewp]

And just to record the changes in percentages

Crewe

Con +19.9%
Lab -18.9
Crewe 1st +1.1
WEP new
Green new
No Ref Uk from before

Criccieth

PC +30.3
Ind -23( different independent)
LD new
Con new
No Lab from before

Northampton

LD +15.8
Con -16.9
Lab +1.1

[The Bishop]

Feb 9, 2024 1:09:22 GMT ricmk said:

Here’s the website of the winning candidate in Crewe: www.crewecentral.org.uk/

Judge for yourself but I think it’s one of the most impressive I’ve ever seen for an individual Council candidate. The only thing missing is, er, which party he’s standing for.

I’d heard the Lib Dems were working Northampton but didn’t hold out much hope so well done to them. Not a lot to celebrate for Northants Lib Dems for a long time so good for them.

I mean, this should probably be given more significance than many are currently doing shouldn't it.

Given the similar campaign (and result) in Hackney last month, is this a template for "Tory" electioneering going forward?

[batman]

It's a good idea in some local wards, but it would not work in marginal seats in a general election unless the opposition is completely asleep. It did work for Elizabeth Peacock in Batley & Spen for a time though, and for Bruce George (Labour) in Walsall South, so you never know, it might be worth trying for the Tories in some places.

[The Bishop]

Yes it is true that Labour candidates have occasionally done similar when the party is unpopular nationally.

One famous example not yet mentioned was Ken Weetch holding Ipswich for Labour in 1983 - there was literally no mention of the dread word "Labour" in any of his election literature. Four years later he fought a somewhat more "conventional" campaign, and the Tories gained the seat against the general trend.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 9, 2024 10:15:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Feb 9, 2024 1:09:22 GMT ricmk said:

Here’s the website of the winning candidate in Crewe: www.crewecentral.org.uk/

Judge for yourself but I think it’s one of the most impressive I’ve ever seen for an individual Council candidate. The only thing missing is, er, which party he’s standing for.

I’d heard the Lib Dems were working Northampton but didn’t hold out much hope so well done to them. Not a lot to celebrate for Northants Lib Dems for a long time so good for them.

I mean, this should probably be given more significance than many are currently doing shouldn't it.

Given the similar campaign (and result) in Hackney last month, is this a template for "Tory" electioneering going forward?

Though it's still not a good sign that in a ward where there should be lots of "Vote Labour no matter what" voters, we did such a poor job of getting them to actually vote. The pseudo-independent strategy can gain you votes, but it's only enough to win if your opponents are bad at their jobs.

[grumpyguy]

Feb 9, 2024 10:36:42 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Feb 9, 2024 10:15:53 GMT The Bishop said:

I mean, this should probably be given more significance than many are currently doing shouldn't it.

Given the similar campaign (and result) in Hackney last month, is this a template for "Tory" electioneering going forward?

Though it's still not a good sign that in a ward where there should be lots of "Vote Labour no matter what" voters, we did such a poor job of getting them to actually vote. The pseudo-independent strategy can gain you votes, but it's only enough to win if your opponents are bad at their jobs.

I suspect, and this is based on guesswork, that the bad Labour result here may have had something to do with the bad weather and Labour's failure to get their support to vote postally. This doesn't seem like such a bad guess, given comments upthread about poor local Labour organization. Also, and I have no systematic evidence to support this, my impression is that in many places, Labour doesn't get as big a share of the postal vote as you might expect, for reasons I don't understand. If so then Labour's local results are likely to be worse in the winter than the summer. Is this true?