Local council by-elections 8th February 2024

[grumpyguy]

Reverting to local factors at Crewe, there was of course no Reform candidate. At a General Election, that won't be the case, so the Con. vote won't look so impressive.

[The Bishop]

Silvester was a similar sort of candidate, though.

Actually it appears the council - which saw a Labour-led coalition take office after last year's elections - has issues (as was indeed the case when it was previously Tory run) Not least the council leader being under investigation apparently.

[timrollpickering]

Feb 9, 2024 11:06:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Silvester was a similar sort of candidate, though.

Is it too late for him to be the RefUK candidate?

[iainbhx]

Feb 9, 2024 11:12:43 GMT timrollpickering said:

Feb 9, 2024 11:06:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Silvester was a similar sort of candidate, though.

Is it too late for him to be the RefUK candidate?

I think even RefUK might blanch at the number of Hitler particles Brian emits these days.

[iainbhx]

Feb 9, 2024 9:31:00 GMT andrewp said:

Feb 9, 2024 9:28:14 GMT batman said:

I was tempted to go for a LD win in Northants & should have looked more closely at whether it was in the parliamentary by-election zone or not. I will try to be more thorough when doing my predictions after this. Not sure anyone non-local could have easily foreseen the size of the Plaid victory in Criccieth.

No, I thought the Independent in Criccieth had the signs of a potential winner there- very local, runs the shop etc- I’m surprised that he didn’t at least get close. It would have been a gamble to predict a Conservative win in Crewe too.

Nope, I‘m surprised at the size of the victory but not at the result. You aren‘t local there unless your family has been there for at least three generations.

[andrewp]

Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale South

Ind 239
Lab 124
Green 33

[evergreenadam]

All seats change hands this week then.

[The Bishop]

The outgoing councillor was elected as an Independent in 2022.

[timrollpickering]

Yes but didn't he defeat this independent?

[The Bishop]

I don't count "Independent gain from Independent" as a real thing.

[andrewp]

An update on local by election statistics this municipal year, following the four contests on 08/02/24

Excluding countermanded elections, up to 8th February 2024 there have now been 132 ordinary by elections for 134 seats since May 4th 2023

The Conservatives have defended 36- Held 13 and lost 23: 5 to the Greens, 13 to the Lib Dems 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 36%) and have gained 8

Labour have defended 47- Held 34 and lost 13- 5 to the Conservatives, 5 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 72%) ) and have gained 8

Lib Dems have defended 23- Held 21 and lost 2, 1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 91% ) and have gained 19

Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 8

There have been elections for 8 seats previously won by Independents: 4 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Plaid Cymru.And Independents have gained 8
Residents/ local groups have defended 6, held 4 and lost 2 to the Lib Dems.
SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 1

Overall net changes

Con -15
Lab -5
LD +17
Green +4
Ind + 4
SNP -4
PC +1
Res/ local groups -2

[johnloony]

I’m beginning to think that the voters in local council by-elections care more about wanting to make my predictions look silly than they do about who represents them on the local council.

[johnloony]

My mother used to have childhood holidays in Criccieth in the 1930s.

When we were children in the 1970s, my parents chose Bridlington as our regular holiday destination (we had 2 or 3 holidays per year in Bridlington from about 1973 to about 1981). A significant factor in the choice of location was that Bridlington is “about as far north” as Criccieth (actually it’s about 50 miles further north) and that therefore it (my mother assumed) would have a similar climate. She obviously didn’t factor into the decision the fact that North Wales is directly in line of the gulf stream warm water, whereas Bridlington is on the chilly North Sea.

[andrewp]

Feb 9, 2024 12:16:42 GMT johnloony said:

My mother used to have childhood holidays in Criccieth in the 1930s.

When we were children in the 1970s, my parents chose Bridlington as our regular holiday destination (we had 2 or 3 holidays per year in Bridlington from about 1973 to about 1981). A significant factor in the choice of location was that Bridlington is “about as far north” as Criccieth (actually it’s about 50 miles further north) and that therefore it (my mother assumed) would have a similar climate. She obviously didn’t factor into the decision the fact that North Wales is directly in line of the gulf stream warm water, whereas Bridlington is on the chilly North Sea.

Mrs Andrewp had many childhood holidays in Criccieth in the 1980s. She has barely a good word to say about the place. Her dad was quite an old dad, both in age and lifestyle and I think Criccieth suited him. When she was 10, he was 63, I have never been there but I imagine that we might quite like it now.

[Tony Otim]

Feb 9, 2024 10:06:32 GMT andrewp said:

And just to record the changes in percentages



Northampton

LD +15.8
Con -16.9
Lab +1.1

With regard to the Northamptonshire result, it should be noted that last time there was 1 Lab and 2 LDs and 3 Cons, so there was probably a fair number of people who voted Lab-LD-LD and so the result here is probably even better for the LDs and Labour and worse for the Tories than the voteshare changes suggest

[gwynthegriff]

Feb 9, 2024 11:12:43 GMT timrollpickering said:

Feb 9, 2024 11:06:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Silvester was a similar sort of candidate, though.

Is it too late for him to be the RefUK candidate?

Even RefUK have standards ...

[gwynthegriff]

Feb 9, 2024 12:32:44 GMT andrewp said:

Feb 9, 2024 12:16:42 GMT johnloony said:

My mother used to have childhood holidays in Criccieth in the 1930s.

When we were children in the 1970s, my parents chose Bridlington as our regular holiday destination (we had 2 or 3 holidays per year in Bridlington from about 1973 to about 1981). A significant factor in the choice of location was that Bridlington is “about as far north” as Criccieth (actually it’s about 50 miles further north) and that therefore it (my mother assumed) would have a similar climate. She obviously didn’t factor into the decision the fact that North Wales is directly in line of the gulf stream warm water, whereas Bridlington is on the chilly North Sea.

Mrs Andrewp had many childhood holidays in Criccieth in the 1980s. She has barely a good word to say about the place. Her dad was quite an old dad, both in age and lifestyle and I think Criccieth suited him. When she was 10, he was 63, I have never been there but I imagine that we might quite like it now.

It's a lovely place; home of the Cadwaladr ice cream empire, and the only place I've seen Porpoise.

But probably more for someone in their 60s than in their childhood.

[carlton43]

Feb 9, 2024 11:44:06 GMT The Bishop said:

I don't count "Independent gain from Independent" as a real thing.

I agree.   As I see it an Independent is just that a 'non-party' or even anti-party individual representative.  Thus the concept of Gain or Loss must be carefully and narrowly defined.

If an Independent dies, resigns or retires and is replaced by another Independent,  it is merely a change or substitution.  There is no Gain.  And if the seat is won by a political party it is a Win but not a Gain, because there was no one there in place to be 'defeated'.

If an Independent stands for re-election and is defeated by a political party candidate or another Independent, that is a Win and a Gain, and should be termed 'Labour Gain from an Independent (NOT from the Independents because they are not a party).'  OR 'Independent Gain from the sitting Independent'. 

[andrewp]

Feb 9, 2024 12:40:58 GMT Tony Otim said:

Feb 9, 2024 10:06:32 GMT andrewp said:

And just to record the changes in percentages



Northampton

LD +15.8
Con -16.9
Lab +1.1

With regard to the Northamptonshire result, it should be noted that last time there was 1 Lab and 2 LDs and 3 Cons, so there was probably a fair number of people who voted Lab-LD-LD and so the result here is probably even better for the LDs and Labour and worse for the Tories than the voteshare changes suggest

Defitnely. The 3 Conservative candidates in 2021 received the votes  of 66, 64.4 and 58.3% of those who voted respectively., so more like down 25-30% from those figures, 

Although both the Lab and LD performances would be lower by that measure too. The Labour candidate in 2021 received a vote from 31.3% of those who voted so they are down about 5% from that figure. The 2 Lib Dems got votes from 29.1 and 27.2% in 2021 so they would be up more like 10% from those figures.

[carlton43]

Feb 9, 2024 12:16:42 GMT johnloony said:

My mother used to have childhood holidays in Criccieth in the 1930s.

When we were children in the 1970s, my parents chose Bridlington as our regular holiday destination (we had 2 or 3 holidays per year in Bridlington from about 1973 to about 1981). A significant factor in the choice of location was that Bridlington is “about as far north” as Criccieth (actually it’s about 50 miles further north) and that therefore it (my mother assumed) would have a similar climate. She obviously didn’t factor into the decision the fact that North Wales is directly in line of the gulf stream warm water, whereas Bridlington is on the chilly North Sea.

Criccieth is not within a 1000 miles of the Gulf Stream which runs up the other side of the Atlantic.