graham
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Post by graham on Feb 28, 2024 18:45:27 GMT
There's no benefit to the government trying to delay it either, the damage has already been done in terms of humiliating by-election losses, if anything this one being a marginal would be less significant than losing the previously safe seats Well it would prevent damaging headlines for the Tories re- a big swing to Labour again just a few months before Polling Day. They may wish to avoid that. |
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Post by batman on Feb 28, 2024 20:49:32 GMT
Damaging headlines are nothing compared with actually losing power.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 28, 2024 21:09:56 GMT
If this recall petition is successful this will likely be the last by-election of this Parliament-if it is not cancelled by a general election (which I suspect it will be). It'll be the 2024 Wirral South if it is held. And just like Wirral South: 1. It used to be a safe Conservative seat 2. It is in the North West 3. It is by the seaside |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 28, 2024 21:15:31 GMT
It'll be the 2024 Wirral South if it is held. And just like Wirral South: 1. It used to be a safe Conservative seat 2. It is in the North West 3. It is by the seaside It was Labour-held 1997 - 2019 and Labour came close in 1992. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 28, 2024 21:16:32 GMT
Damaging headlines are nothing compared with actually losing power. Indeed - but the former might help to bring about the latter. |
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Post by batman on Feb 28, 2024 21:32:56 GMT
It'll be the 2024 Wirral South if it is held. And just like Wirral South: 1. It used to be a safe Conservative seat 2. It is in the North West 3. It is by the seaside That's true, but South Wirral was still seen as a normally safe Conservative seat at the time of the by-election, whereas Blackpool South ceased to be that over 30 years ago. Of course it wasn't safe, and the Tories have never won it since. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 28, 2024 21:37:11 GMT
And just like Wirral South: 1. It used to be a safe Conservative seat 2. It is in the North West 3. It is by the seaside That's true, but South Wirral was still seen as a normally safe Conservative seat at the time of the by-election, whereas Blackpool South ceased to be that over 30 years ago. Of course it wasn't safe, and the Tories have never won it since. Those two constituencies aren’t very similar at all, despite the 1-3 above. You could write a longer list of how they are different. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 28, 2024 21:45:00 GMT
That's true, but South Wirral was still seen as a normally safe Conservative seat at the time of the by-election, whereas Blackpool South ceased to be that over 30 years ago. Of course it wasn't safe, and the Tories have never won it since. Those two constituencies aren’t very similar at all, despite the 1-3 above. You could write a longer list of how they are different. I suspect the Index of Deprivation (or whatever it's called these days) would show a sharp difference! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 28, 2024 22:03:58 GMT
Those two constituencies aren’t very similar at all, despite the 1-3 above. You could write a longer list of how they are different. I suspect the Index of Deprivation (or whatever it's called these days) would show a sharp difference! I will offer some figures from the 2021 Census Unemployment WS 2.2% BS 4.5% No educational qualifications WS 14.6% BS 25.2% Socio-economic Groups L1-6 WS 38.8% BS 21.3% (Managerial, administrative & professional) Living in flats/ apartments/ caravans WS 10.0% BS 21.4% Born outside the UK WS 4.6% BS 8.3% Health fair/bad/very bad WS 18.1% BS 26.1% Multiple indicators of deprivation WS 15.2% BS 27.4% You will note that there is a 2:1 ration (or close) on most indicators. And Blackpool does not come out of it well! |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 28, 2024 22:26:25 GMT
There is no need for the Government to move the writ as soon as the seat becomes vacant - a delay of up to 3 months would not be unreasonable.that could mean no writ moved before late July. Moreover, the Summer Recess begins on 23rd July. A delay of 3 months for a by-election which would have been very clearly requested by the electorate? Right. 'Very clearly'? Really? On a marked minority request with no provision for a 'Don't Recall' vote? Pull the other one! This is a nasty, silly, squalid, stupid idea, only supported by nasty, silly, squalid, stupid people, of the sort so well represented on this Forum ..... Woden damn their eyes! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 29, 2024 0:18:52 GMT
I suspect the Index of Deprivation (or whatever it's called these days) would show a sharp difference! I will offer some figures from the 2021 Census Unemployment WS 2.2% BS 4.5% No educational qualifications WS 14.6% BS 25.2% Socio-economic Groups L1-6 WS 38.8% BS 21.3% (Managerial, administrative & professional) Living in flats/ apartments/ caravans WS 10.0% BS 21.4% Born outside the UK WS 4.6% BS 8.3% Health fair/bad/very bad WS 18.1% BS 26.1% Multiple indicators of deprivation WS 15.2% BS 27.4% You will note that there is a 2:1 ration (or close) on most indicators. And Blackpool does not come out of it well! Blackpool as a whole really stands out whenever the Deprivation stats are released. Coastal resorts are always less well off, less healthy, less educated, as a rule, only on a map does the deep reds of Blackpool's bottom of the pile figures contrast with directly next door's pale blues from Lytham's expanse of savings, degrees, and wellness. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 1, 2024 13:46:14 GMT
Labour will be hoping even more that this happens now, if only to show that Rochdale really was a fluke.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 14, 2024 16:42:52 GMT
I'm on a bus in Blackpool. I've just passed a building with "signing place" notices strung up to the fences, as you would expect "polling station" to be.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Mar 15, 2024 2:01:43 GMT
Labour will be hoping even more that this happens now, if only to show that Rochdale really was a fluke. When was the last time that Labour failed to field a candidate in a by-election in a Labour-held constituency? |
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 25, 2024 14:46:13 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 25, 2024 14:48:18 GMT
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 25, 2024 14:50:01 GMT
Wonder how much money the abortive recall petition process has cost Blackpool's hard-pressed council. Benton departing with all the grace that characterised his tenure.
Edit: I'm told the money is recoverable from central government, so Blackpool council is OK but it's still a waste of public money.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 25, 2024 14:52:22 GMT
BREAKING
Rishi Sunak is facing another by-election in a red wall seat after Scott Benton resigned today as a MP, GB News can reveal.
Benton, the independent MP for Blackpool South MP, was already facing a recall petition and potentially a by-election after MPs have approved a motion to suspend from the Commons for 35 days.
Benton lost the Tory whip last April after suggesting to undercover reporters at The Times that he would be willing to break lobbying rules for money.
An independent panel upheld a decision by the Standards Committee, which Mr Benton had appealed against.
In a letter today, Benton said: "It's with a heavy heart that I have written to the Chancellor this morning to tender my resignation as your MP.
"I'd like to thank the hundreds of residents who have sent supportive messages, cards and letters over the last few months and who have urged me to continue and fight the next election."
Benton has previously said he was "deeply disappointed" and claimed there had been a "lack of integrity" throughout the process, which was "prone" to leaks.
In 2019, Benton won a majority of 3,690 in a seat that had voted Labour since 1997.
More at @gbnews now.
(And, yes, I know it’s not a Red Wall seat, complaints to GB News!)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 25, 2024 14:53:58 GMT
Will await confirmation but it's the Manor of Northstead's turn, and he'll succeed Chris Pincher.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 25, 2024 15:32:56 GMT
Writ to be moved tomorrow, polling day 2 May.
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