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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 28, 2024 0:12:55 GMT
Imagine if the result of the Petition is the final signal for Sunak calling the election.
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Post by johnloony on Feb 28, 2024 2:31:01 GMT
I predict Lab 61% Con 25% Ref 9% LD 3% Grn 2% I predict Lab 57% Con 24% Ref 14% LD 3% Grn 2% |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468 
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Post by peterl on Feb 28, 2024 2:35:10 GMT
Lab 51%
Con 22%
Ref 16%
LD 5%
Grn 5%
Random Independent 1%
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 28, 2024 7:54:00 GMT
Given recent events in Rochdale I think predictions for a by-election which is realistically a minimum if twelve weeks away is a tad premature.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 28, 2024 7:58:27 GMT
The motion has just passed without a division so the recall petition is officially on. Do Govt Whips have any further role in the petition or is their role done now that the HoC processes is complete? There’s a chance the result of this is known a few days before the locals in May. If I were CCHQ I’d want the result and almost inevitable bad news to come out after the elections not before. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 28, 2024 8:04:12 GMT
Given recent events in Rochdale I think predictions for a by-election which is realistically a minimum if twelve weeks away is a tad premature. We need to get a guarantee that a post-Budget slump won't make this by-election unnecessary yet! |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Feb 28, 2024 8:12:42 GMT
The motion has just passed without a division so the recall petition is officially on. Do Govt Whips have any further role in the petition or is their role done now that the HoC processes is complete? There’s a chance the result of this is known a few days before the locals in May. If I were CCHQ I’d want the result and almost inevitable bad news to come out after the elections not before. No. The Speaker notifies Blackpool Council (he may already have done so) and then the schedule for the petition is more or less determined by the Act. I think it will close on Tuesday 23 or Wednesday 24 April, depending on whether the Speaker sent the notice yesterday or sends it today, unless it is terminated by a dissolution of Parliament or Benton otherwise ceasing to be an MP. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2024 10:14:16 GMT
Imagine if the result of the Petition is the final signal for Sunak calling the election. Given when the result is due, that would mean a GE sometime in June. Surely not too likely if May's elections are as bad for the Tories as some suspect. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 28, 2024 10:53:11 GMT
Given recent events in Rochdale I think predictions for a by-election which is realistically a minimum if twelve weeks away is a tad premature. I don’t. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 28, 2024 14:29:40 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 28, 2024 15:24:46 GMT
Earliest likely by election date is probably 30th May. |
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Post by newsouthender on Feb 28, 2024 15:31:43 GMT
Earliest likely by election date is probably 30th May. Please not during a school holiday week in the season! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 28, 2024 15:50:30 GMT
Earliest likely by election date is probably 30th May. Please not during a school holiday week in the season! That's the absolute best time to visit! |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,360
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Feb 28, 2024 16:20:43 GMT
It could be an illuminating by-election.
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 28, 2024 16:27:13 GMT
It could be an illuminating by-election. It will certainly be a Big One. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 28, 2024 18:12:37 GMT
There is no need for the Government to move the writ as soon as the seat becomes vacant - a delay of up to 3 months would not be unreasonable.that could mean no writ moved before late July. Moreover, the Summer Recess begins on 23rd July.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 28, 2024 18:20:58 GMT
If this recall petition is successful this will likely be the last by-election of this Parliament-if it is not cancelled by a general election (which I suspect it will be).
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 28, 2024 18:36:43 GMT
If this recall petition is successful this will likely be the last by-election of this Parliament-if it is not cancelled by a general election (which I suspect it will be). It'll be the 2024 Wirral South if it is held. |
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 28, 2024 18:37:04 GMT
There is no need for the Government to move the writ as soon as the seat becomes vacant - a delay of up to 3 months would not be unreasonable.that could mean no writ moved before late July. Moreover, the Summer Recess begins on 23rd July. A delay of 3 months for a by-election which would have been very clearly requested by the electorate? Right. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Feb 28, 2024 18:40:58 GMT
There's no benefit to the government trying to delay it either, the damage has already been done in terms of humiliating by-election losses, if anything this one being a marginal would be less significant than losing the previously safe seats
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