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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 7, 2023 20:04:59 GMT
With time on my hands, I've decided to do some proper work on this election, for those interested. If you wonder if I'm being subjective, then I've done my job as I planned!
The election is scheduled for 9th June 2024 as it stands.
This is a full federal election, with the Chamber of Representatives and Senate up for grabs. Voting is compulsory. The chamber consists of 150 deputies elected from 11 electoral districts (ten provinces plus Brussels Region). This has caused grief before. The Senate consists of 60 senators, of whom 10 are co-opted based on the result of the lower house.
The districts range in seat numbers for the chamber of 4 (Luxembourg) up to 24 (Antwerp). A 5% threshold applies per province. East Flanders and Antwerp are the only ones with 20 seats or more. Conversely, the only ones not in double figures are Luxembourg, Namur (the capital region of Wallonia) and Walloon Brabant. The latter is surprising as it is prime Brussels commuter territory. Members for the Flemish districts automatically join the Dutch group, for the Walloon ones the French group. Brussels deputies can join either. This sounds obvious, but it really is not. You have Francophone deputies from Flemish Brabant and German speakers from Liege, for starters.
The voting method is D'Hondt, who himself was Belgian.
Next: the parties.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 7, 2023 20:43:12 GMT
The parties. Broadly speaking, Belgium used to be a pillarised society like the Netherlands, except with no Prods. This survives to some degree: your health insurance is often linked to your outlook, and even if you don't have a political outlook, you've still got a choice between Free and Neutral. Not a clue.
Brussels features most if not all parties, sometimes in a cartel. Sometimes parties run across the borders (Vlaams Belang have been known to attract Walloon voters). Therefore, this is a semi-random list. And is influenced by a mix of political science and personal prejudice, weighted further to the latter. F is Francophone, NL is Flemish. German parties normally join a Walloon one in a cartel. I've gone by size in the chamber.
NV-A (NL). New Flemish Alliance. A straightforward right-wing party, probably the most economically liberal one. Current leaders of the Flemish government with the CD&V and VLD. International comparison: VVD, Netherlands.
Vlaams Belang (NL). Sworn enemies of the NV-A, genuinely far-right. International comparison: pre-Marine Front National, France.
PS (F). The Parti socialiste. People seem to end up dead. A weird mix of socialism, Walloon nationalism, clientelism, and corruption. Linked to just about every scandal in Belgian political history. International comparison: PASOK, Greece.
CD&V (NL). The Flemish Christian Democrats. What they say on the tin. International comparison: CDU, Germany.
PTB/PvdA (both): the only cross-community party these days but more popular in Wallonia. Commies. Aligned to the CPB over here. Oddly anti-Green. International comparison: Internationale.
Open VLD (NL): basically a party of power now, but once a liberal party. Verhofstadt haunts them still. Easily the most prone to splinters of any party, because they don't really stand for anything. International comparison: open an Orange Book, and find that it is empty.
MR (F): VLD's Walloon equivalent. Now essentially a right-wing broad church in Wallonia and Brussels. Allegedly a liberal party, but really a sort of bourgeois dustbin now. International comparison: Renaissance, France.
Vooruit (NL): Flemish socialists. Harmless. Currently between leaders as the previous one, would-be next -big-thing Conner Rousseau, is on trial for fronting up to a copper and then telling some dodgy jokes about gypsies as he did it. International comparison: the SPD or Labour.
Groen (NL): generic Greens. International comparison: the Greens, Germany.
Ecolo (F): allegedly this stands for Federated Ecologists for Organisation of Original Struggles. This is bogus. So are they.
Les engages (F): no accent on this laptop. Formerly the Francophone Christian Democrats. Nobody really knows what are now. International comparison: D66, Netherlands.
DeFi (F): imagine Francophone supremacists who revered the Chesham & Amersham version of the Lib Dems. International comparison: well, it has to be Emmanuel Macron.
Chez Nous (F): the new Francophone analogue to VB, who will not run in Wallonia this time. Destined to collapse in acrimony within 12 months. Fascist? Probably not. Dodgy? Yes. International comparison: let's stick with Vlaams Belang.
These are the likely parties, although others might emerge.
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 8, 2023 20:39:33 GMT
Les engages (F): no accent on this laptop. Formerly the Francophone Christian Democrats. Nobody really knows what are now. International comparison: D66, Netherlands. I think i read en passant, that they try it presently with a sharp shift to the right (copying BBB)? |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 8, 2023 20:43:27 GMT
For the postWarEra i would put the exAustrian NetherLands closest to my Austria: In both countries 3 very distinct milieus, thus a strong partitoCracia incl. lots of structural corruption.
Sure, Liberals and FPÖ differed.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 8, 2023 21:50:24 GMT
Les engages (F): no accent on this laptop. Formerly the Francophone Christian Democrats. Nobody really knows what are now. International comparison: D66, Netherlands. I think i read en passant, that they try it presently with a sharp shift to the right (copying BBB)? They have made noises in that direction but also in the other direction too. They do seem to be building bridges with CD&V again. Which is sensible. |
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Post by jamie on Dec 8, 2023 23:53:34 GMT
Vooruit (NL): Flemish socialists. Harmless. Currently between leaders as the previous one, would-be next -big-thing Conner Rousseau, is on trial for fronting up to a copper and then telling some dodgy jokes about gypsies as he did it. International comparison: the SPD or Labour. Vooruit have gone quite workerist the last few years. The new leader, while less likely to make racist comments/engage in constant attention seeking, is from a more working class background and will continue much of the vibe and policy. International comparison is probably more Sweden Social Democrats, or even more accurately, the 2015-2022 Danish Social Democrats. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 9, 2023 9:22:25 GMT
Vooruit (NL): Flemish socialists. Harmless. Currently between leaders as the previous one, would-be next -big-thing Conner Rousseau, is on trial for fronting up to a copper and then telling some dodgy jokes about gypsies as he did it. International comparison: the SPD or Labour. Vooruit have gone quite workerist the last few years. The new leader, while less likely to make racist comments/engage in constant attention seeking, is from a more working class background and will continue much of the vibe and policy. International comparison is probably more Sweden Social Democrats, or even more accurately, the 2015-2022 Danish Social Democrats. That's fair. Although I'm not sure they've fully embraced that line yet. Nonetheless they definitely have a left-nationalist current as they were partly formed by Spirit, once part of the Volkunie with the now NV-A. I'd missed that Melissa Depraetere had the gig on a full-time basis, thanks for that. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 9, 2023 13:14:34 GMT
Next up: the current government.
The last federal election was yet again a fragmented affair, with the NV-A and VB coming out on top in Flanders, and the PS and MR in Wallonia and Brussels. The outgoing Charles Michel (MR) government was a straightforward centre-right one: MR, VLD, CD&V and NV-A. It was the first one in decades with only one Francophone party, the first without PS in a generation, and Michel was only the second Francophone PM since Edmond Leburton in the Seventies. The numbers were against it and it could not be renewed. Michel exited the scene to become president of the European Council, followed shortly afterwards by foreign minister Didier Reynders who became a European Commissioner- a man who seems to endless fall upwards. Sophie Wilmès (MR) took over as Belgium’s first-ever female PM, with a cabinet made up of the same parties less the NV-A.
Wilmès copped for much of the Covid era and did get a lot of flak, mainly from people who didn’t want to be blamed themselves. Eventually she stepped down to care for her husband, who sadly died last month.
She was then replaced by the current incumbent, Alexander de Croo (VLD). The De Croo cabinet is the “Vivaldi”, so-called because it is deemed to feature the “four seasons” of Belgian politics: liberal (MR, VLD), socialists (PS, Vooruit), greens (Ecolo, Groen) and the Flemish Christian Democrats.
All three of the last PMs are from liberal royalty. Charles Michel is the son of Louis Michel, liberal big beast, former foreign minister and European Commissioner (is this the first family to make European gigs a family trade?); Wilmès is the daughter of a well-known ideologue from the MR’s predecessors; and De Croo senior was the longest-serving deputy in Belgian history, and president of the chamber. The Michel and Wilmès families both had their base in Walloon Brabant.
The De Croo government has been a curious one and unsurprisingly features repeated clashes between its components. I will do a different post on the key issues, but there have been clashes over immigration, the environment, crime…and it is arguable that the most effective opposition to the government parties comes from the government parties themselves. Ecolo and CD&V seem to be consistently at each others’ throats, and now Groen have joined in.
De Croo’s government has made some eye-catching moves, not always for the best. As the security situation deteriorates in Brussels, he and his interior minister Annelies Verlinden have cracked down hard on crime and illegal migration. He himself turned up in Egypt last month to criticise Israel, provoking a row. Some of the government’s labour reforms would be regarded as a bit much even by the Conservatives here. Were it not for elections in June, it is doubtful that this administration would have survived 2024.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2023 15:05:59 GMT
The industrial museum in Charleroi has a good section on political history. One of the most interesting places I've ever been in Europe, alongside Perpignan (only its less isolated and much less downright weird).
Belgian politics of the early twentieth century appears to have been fundamentally Socialists v Catholics which I suspect explains a few things (especially about Wallonia)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 9, 2023 17:16:23 GMT
The industrial museum in Charleroi has a good section on political history. One of the most interesting places I've ever been in Europe, alongside Perpignan (only its less isolated and much less downright weird). Belgian politics of the early twentieth century appears to have been fundamentally Socialists v Catholics which I suspect explains a few things (especially about Wallonia) Charleroi is pretty strange in its way, though! A lot of those industrial belt places do feel weirdly isolated despite not being so. Mons is definitely grimmer than Charleroi, and feels more like its own world. Even more so with places like Jemappes and La Louvière, which are about as bleak as you'll find in western Europe. Likewise some of the Liège satellite towns. I found myself in Flémalle in May and won't return. Grace-Hollogne, Seraing, Rocourt are all likewise places you would not want to be walking around at night. But this is what makes Belgium interesting. It's like western Europe in miniature, with all of its advantages and disadvantages amplified and taken to excess. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 17, 2023 17:31:38 GMT
Some strange moves in the latest polls. Ecolo and Les Engagés are up, the latter in particular. PTB are up marginally in Flanders but down by a hefty margin in Wallonia. PS looking poorer in Brussels and Wallonia. NV-A edging up, VB down.
On current trends, Les Engagés might overtake PTB in Wallonia.
Despite the VLD going down the pan in Flanders, De Croo is the most popular politician in Brussels. Bart de Wever of the NV-A takes that accolade in Flanders. Former MR prime minister leads on that score in Wallonia.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 20, 2023 15:18:33 GMT
Trying to predict who will be the next PM is a fool's errand. Not just because we have no idea of all the candidates yet, but because the biggest party doesn't seem to supply prime ministers and probably has not since Yves Leterme. Instead, here are ones to watch- people who will probably have their eye on a gig. Working on the basis that PTB and VB won't join a government.
Liberals
Alexander De Croo (Open VLD). De Croo's supporters would say he's a charismatic moderniser. His detractors would say he's a smarmy tech bro. Well-connected in liberal and wider political circles, he does have a tendency to provoke rows with people. He's definitely on manoeuvres right now. He has recently tilted rightwards in response to the crime wave in Brussels.
Sophie Wilmes (MR). De Croo's predecessor as PM (Belgium's first female one as well), before becoming Foreign Minister. Right now she is the most popular politician in Wallonia, but she has also sadly been widowed in the last few weeks, and it's questionable as to whether she'd want the job again right now. Likeable, perfectly bilingual, and respected in Flanders, which helps.
Didier Reynders (MR). Currently lurking as a European Commissioner, the Francophone liberal big beast should never be counted out. He was achieved the highest personal vote in the 2019 election.
Dark horses: Charles Michel (MR), Gwendolyn Rutten (Open VLD), Vincent van Quickenborne (VLD).
Socialists
Elio di Rupo (PS). One-time PM, twice minister-president of Wallonia, a gig he has right now. Di Rupo is an instantly recognisable character, especially because of his love of bowties, and is well-liked in Wallonia. Unfortunately like most PS figures, he is not well-liked in Flanders at all.
Paul Magnette (PS). One-time minister-president of Wallonia, where he achieved a certain fame by trying to torpedo the EU trade deal with Canada. Very popular with Walloon socialists, but unfortunately for him this is about the only milieu that does like him. A bewildering mix of intellectual heavyweight and tedious populist.
Ahmed Laaouej (PS). The socialist boss of Brussels politics. Hates the NV-A and basically can't distinguish them from the VB. He would have a lot of support from his own supporters, but does he have the politicking skills to cross the language barrier?
Dark horses: Ludivine Dendonder (PS, Minister of Defence); Frederic Daerden (PS); Eliane Tillieux (PS, president of the chamber), Caroline Gennez (Vooruit)
Christian Democrats
Maxime Prevot (LE). Well, he's turned around the sinking ship of the CdH if polls are to be believed, and has dragged their messaging back towards being a proper centre-right Christian Democratic outfit. Another likeable character, who was the only CdH politician to increase their vote share at the 2014 election. It can be assumed that he wants the party back in government for the first time in a decade, and he is taking steps to work more closely with CD&V. One to watch- he could be a kingmaker.
Dark horses: Nicole de Moor (CD&V), Sammy Mahdi (CD&V), Pieter de Crem (CD&V)
I don't think it's likely that the N-VA, Vooruit or the two green parties will supply a PM.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 23, 2024 14:18:32 GMT
Polls seem hard to come by at the moment, the last one being a month ago. It is a joint one for RTL, VTM (television channels), Le Sour and Het Laatste Nieuws (newspapers).
Needing 76 seats for a majority, the current polls show:
N-VA 20
PS 16
VB 27
MR 16
Ecolo 9
CD&V 11
VLD 6
PVDA/PTB 19
Vooruit 10
Groen 5
Les engagés 10
Defi 1
Others none
I have no idea how you make a government from that. N-VA, MR, CD&V, LE, VLD would work but is still short.
The other parties taking part so far include Blanco (a party that claims voters should spoil their ballot because...erm...there's not enough choice), Chez Nous (some sort of Walloon far-right outfit), Voor U (Flemish liberal splinter and personality cult), Volt, at least two different Arab groupings in Brussels, some antifederalists, and various German minority groupings.
Flemish big beast Patrick Dewael has announced that he is retiring. He first entered Parliament in 1985.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2024 14:26:30 GMT
Polls seem hard to come by at the moment, the last one being a month ago. It is a joint one for RTL, VTM (television channels), Le Sour and Het Laatste Nieuws (newspapers). Needing 76 seats for a majority, the current polls show: N-VA 20 PS 16 VB 27 MR 16 Ecolo 9 CD&V 11 VLD 6 PVDA/PTB 19 Vooruit 10 Groen 5 Les engagés 10 Defi 1 Others none I have no idea how you make a government from that. N-VA, MR, CD&V, LE, VLD would work but is still short. The other parties taking part so far include Blanco (a party that claims voters should spoil their ballot because...erm...there's not enough choice), Chez Nous (some sort of Walloon far-right outfit), Voor U (Flemish liberal splinter and personality cult), Volt, at least two different Arab groupings in Brussels, some antifederalists, and various German minority groupings. Flemish big beast Patrick Dewael has announced that he is retiring. He first entered Parliament in 1985. They could do the very Belgian thing, and just not bother |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 23, 2024 14:50:14 GMT
Polls seem hard to come by at the moment, the last one being a month ago. It is a joint one for RTL, VTM (television channels), Le Sour and Het Laatste Nieuws (newspapers). Needing 76 seats for a majority, the current polls show: N-VA 20 PS 16 VB 27 MR 16 Ecolo 9 CD&V 11 VLD 6 PVDA/PTB 19 Vooruit 10 Groen 5 Les engagés 10 Defi 1 Others none I have no idea how you make a government from that. N-VA, MR, CD&V, LE, VLD would work but is still short. The other parties taking part so far include Blanco (a party that claims voters should spoil their ballot because...erm...there's not enough choice), Chez Nous (some sort of Walloon far-right outfit), Voor U (Flemish liberal splinter and personality cult), Volt, at least two different Arab groupings in Brussels, some antifederalists, and various German minority groupings. Flemish big beast Patrick Dewael has announced that he is retiring. He first entered Parliament in 1985. They could do the very Belgian thing, and just not bother Probably the best idea given the choices. As an aside, I was in Belgium last week and saw a number of vehicles with party-political wraps on them. I spent half an hour in a jam behind one with the giant head of the CD&V Leader, and parked up next to a knackered van with Groen livery. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 23, 2024 17:32:32 GMT
Polls seem hard to come by at the moment, the last one being a month ago. It is a joint one for RTL, VTM (television channels), Le Sour and Het Laatste Nieuws (newspapers). Needing 76 seats for a majority, the current polls show: N-VA 20 PS 16 VB 27 MR 16 Ecolo 9 CD&V 11 VLD 6 PVDA/PTB 19 Vooruit 10 Groen 5 Les engagés 10 Defi 1 Others none I have no idea how you make a government from that. N-VA, MR, CD&V, LE, VLD would work but is still short. The other parties taking part so far include Blanco (a party that claims voters should spoil their ballot because...erm...there's not enough choice), Chez Nous (some sort of Walloon far-right outfit), Voor U (Flemish liberal splinter and personality cult), Volt, at least two different Arab groupings in Brussels, some antifederalists, and various German minority groupings. Flemish big beast Patrick Dewael has announced that he is retiring. He first entered Parliament in 1985. They could do the very Belgian thing, and just not bother We need VB+NVA to get a majority in Flanders just to break up this mess |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 23, 2024 19:18:24 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Apr 23, 2024 19:48:37 GMT
I’m actually supporting NVA, I’m just saying that Belgium really shouldn’t exist. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2024 20:02:25 GMT
I'm less of that opinion after visiting actually. It kind of holds together as a coherent entity though obviously there are distinct differences between the two. The language thing genuinely threw me though
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Post by rcronald on Apr 23, 2024 20:52:07 GMT
I'm less of that opinion after visiting actually. It kind of holds together as a coherent entity though obviously there are distinct differences between the two. The language thing genuinely threw me though It is semi-coherent, the problem is that Belgium is not functioning properly as a country since the mid 2000s. There’s also a strange asymmetry where the Flemings seem to know/speak French and are generally culturally literate about Wallonia/France, but the Walloons seem to know nothing about the Flemings and generally look down on their culture despite the Flemings being better than them in most aspects… |
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