Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 22, 2023 7:59:16 GMT
I wonder if that person was looking at Ventnor itself rather than the whole ward.I wouldn't be at all surprised on those figures if Labour didn't win in Ventnor town. At least he didn't make the stupid mistake of thinking the Lib Dems were going to win.  Also on those figures it's quite possible, even likely, that Labour won the on the day votes. |
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Post by gramps191919 on Dec 22, 2023 8:36:47 GMT
Yes, and all added to the LDs. I make their percentage 60.6% Apologies, LIB DEM HOLD BLABY DC; Glen Parva Ward 🔶 SAVAGE, Andrew, LibDem, 438, 60.6%, +5.4% 🔵 Cons, 140, 19.4%, -3.7% 🔴 Lab, 102, 14.1%, +14.1% 🟢 Grn, 43, 6.0% +6.0% Congratulations 🎉 to Coun. Andrew Savage and his team on this seasonal 🎅🏽 election victory 🏅 |
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Post by batman on Dec 22, 2023 8:47:21 GMT
This was probably Labour's best possible shot at winning in Ventnor & St Lawrence and with St Lawrence included it was still a bridge too far.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 22, 2023 8:48:51 GMT
Yes, and all added to the LDs. I make their percentage 60.6% I wonder if in the excitement somebody pressed the 9 key rather than 0 Extraordinary powers of deduction |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 22, 2023 9:23:58 GMT
Numbers updated following the contests this week.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 21st December there have now been 117 ordinary by elections for 119 seats since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 32- Held 11 and lost 21: 5 to the Greens, 11 to the Lib Dems 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 34%) and have gained 6
Labour have defended 41- Held 31 and lost 10: 3 to the Conservatives, 4 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 76%) and have gained 8
Lib Dems have defended 20- Held 18 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 90%) and have gained 17
Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 8
There have been elections for 6 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. . And Independents have gained 7
Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dems
SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems
Overall net changes
Con -15
Lab -2
LD +15
Green +4
Ind + 4
SNP -4
Res/ local groups -1
Vectis -1
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 22, 2023 9:42:59 GMT
I wonder if in the excitement somebody pressed the 9 key rather than 0 Extraordinary powers of deduction My point, if it has escaped you, is that the error was probably careless/accidental rather some fiendish Lib Dem plot to deceive as some were implying. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 22, 2023 10:09:16 GMT
GWBWI LDm +87 Lab +2 Grn +0 Con -8 Not entirely surprisingly, a LibDem week overall, but fittingly for Christmas, no one had a terrible time. Merry Xmas, everyone, but particularly yellowperil (check your messages, btw) |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 22, 2023 10:25:21 GMT
Numbers updated following the contests this week. Excluding countermanded elections, up to 21st December there have now been 117 ordinary by elections for 119 seats since May 4th. The Conservatives have defended 32- Held 11 and lost 21: 5 to the Greens, 11 to the Lib Dems 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 34%) and have gained 6 Labour have defended 41- Held 31 and lost 10: 3 to the Conservatives, 4 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 76%) and have gained 8 Lib Dems have defended 17: Held 15 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 88%) and have gained 17 Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 8 There have been elections for 6 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. . And Independents have gained 7 Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dems SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%) PC have defended 1, held 1 Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems Overall net changes Con -15 Lab -2 LD +15 Green +4 Ind + 4 SNP -4 Res/ local groups -1 Vectis -1 As always, I greatly appreciate these summaries- I may be tempted to keep peeking at them even when I cease to post on this thread. Thank you very much for doing them. So that said, a couple of comments/queries: 1. Why is it that there are only 116 defences listed when there were 117 elections for 119 places? ( I thought I had asked you about this before but can't remember the answer!) 2. Why does Vectis get a line all to itself when it really is only one more example of "Res/local groups"? ( the whole business of differentiating between Indies and Localists is frought with difficulty. Personally, I would lump the whole lot together to make a bloc more comparable in size with the main party groups. Otherwise there is always the headache of deciding whether the Bloggsville Independents are really Indies or Localists. Is the emphasis on the first word or the second? And if they decide to call themselves the Bloggsville Residents has anything changed?) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 22, 2023 10:26:19 GMT
This was probably Labour's best possible shot at winning in Ventnor & St Lawrence and with St Lawrence included it was still a bridge too far. Maybe, but they will now be the undisputed choice for non-Tory voters come the next regular election. One more heave?  |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 22, 2023 11:58:48 GMT
As always, I greatly appreciate these summaries- I may be tempted to keep peeking at them even when I cease to post on this thread. Thank you very much for doing them. So that said, a couple of comments/queries: 1. Why is it that there are only 116 defences listed when there were 117 elections for 119 places? ( I thought I had asked you about this before but can't remember the answer!) 2. Why does Vectis get a line all to itself when it really is only one more example of "Res/local groups"? ( the whole business of differentiating between Indies and Localists is frought with difficulty. Personally, I would lump the whole lot together to make a bloc more comparable in size with the main party groups. Otherwise there is always the headache of deciding whether the Bloggsville Independents are really Indies or Localists. Is the emphasis on the first word or the second? And if they decide to call themselves the Bloggsville Residents has anything changed?) Thanks 1) I have checked my spreadsheet and had 3 missed LD defences ( all holds) so numbers corrected now. 2) I, perhaps crudely, have separated Vectis from the other Residents as they don’t include Residents in the title. I quite agree that I could alternatively lump them all together. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 22, 2023 13:00:42 GMT
Extraordinary powers of deduction My point, if it has escaped you, is that the error was probably careless/accidental rather some fiendish Lib Dem plot to deceive as some were implying. Of course it was. I agree. I was 'implying' nothing other than casual humour. |
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Dec 22, 2023 18:06:16 GMT
I wonder if that person was looking at Ventnor itself rather than the whole ward.I wouldn't be at all surprised on those figures if Labour didn't win in Ventnor town. At least he didn't make the stupid mistake of thinking the Lib Dems were going to win. Also on those figures it's quite possible, even likely, that Labour won the on the day votes. That would not surprise me having been involved in two Town Council byelections on Monday with very low turnouts 10% and 12% it was clear having done some telling that whilst the Labour vote turned up, albeit in very small numbers, on the day the Tories smashed the postal votes which accounted for about 60% of the turnout. In my my its no doubt that the Tories benefit from low turnout. |
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Post by gramps191919 on Dec 22, 2023 18:45:44 GMT
Yes, and all added to the LDs. I make their percentage 60.6% Apologies, LIB DEM HOLD BLABY DC; Glen Parva Ward 🔶 SAVAGE, Andrew, LibDem, 438, 60.6%, +5.4% 🔵 Cons, 140, 19.4%, -3.7% 🔴 Lab, 102, 14.1%, +14.1% 🟢 Grn, 43, 6.0% +6.0% Congratulations 🎉 to Coun. Andrew Savage and his team on this seasonal 🎅🏽 election victory 🏅 |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 25, 2023 13:40:46 GMT
This was probably Labour's best possible shot at winning in Ventnor & St Lawrence and with St Lawrence included it was still a bridge too far. Maybe, but they will now be the undisputed choice for non-Tory voters come the next regular election. One more heave? This is the Isle of Wight we're talking about, let's just remember that! 😛 |
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 25, 2023 14:24:30 GMT
Maybe, but they will now be the undisputed choice for non-Tory voters come the next regular election. One more heave? This is the Isle of Wight we're talking about, let's just remember that! 😛 Yes, most of the electorate will probably be dead by the time of the next election. |
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