Local Council by-elections 21st December 2023

[Tony Otim]

Last lot for the year:

BLABY DC; Glen Parva (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BADLAND, Laura (Labour)
BLACKWELL, Shane (Conservative)
JELFS, Mike (Green)
SAVAGE, Ande (Liberal Democrat)

2023: LD 681, 658; Con 279; Ind 264

In May, Laura Badland stood for Labour in Fosse Highcross. Shane Blackwell (Con) was councillor for Countesthorpe ward 2019-23, but only came 6th in May as the Conservatives lost 2 of the 3 seats there to the Lib Dems. Mike Jelfs stood for the Greens in Cosby & South Whetstone and Andrew Savage stood for the Lib Dems in North Whetstone.

Current Council: Con 19; LD 8; Lab 6; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



ISLE OF WIGHT UA; Ventnor & St Lawrence (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BLAKE, Ed (Conservative)
COOPER, Steve (Labour)
HARRINGTON-VAIL, Ray (Liberal Democrat)

2021: Con 328; Vectis 260; Lab 249; Our Island 178; Island Ind Network 171; Freedom All 38

Steve Cooper was the Labour candidate in 2021 and is the current mayor of Ventnor.

Current Council: Con 15; All Grp 13 (Ind 8; Island Ind Net 2; Grn 2; Our Island 1); Empowering Islanders 4; LD 4; Ind Lab 1; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



LEICESTERSHIRE CC; Blaby & Glen Parva (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BADLAND, Laura (Labour)
GRUNDY, Nigel (Conservative)
JELFS, Mike (Green)
JORDAN, Sue (Liberal Democrat)

2021: LD 1484; Con 1020; Lab 304; Grn 235
2017: LD 1728; Con 906; Lab 299; UKIP 121

The division comprises the new Glen Parva (see above) and Blaby wards, along with a small part of North Whetstone. The Lib Dems would have comfortably carried it in May (although didn’t have Labour or Green opposition apart from Labour in North Whetstone). As noted above, Laura Badland stood for Labour in Fosse Highcross and Mike Jelfs stood for the Greens in Cosby & South Whetstone. Nigel Grundy is sitting district councillor for Narborough & Littlethorpe ward (not in this division), having previously been councillor for Pastures ward since 2019. Sue Jordan stood for the Lib Dems in Leicester Forest & Lubbesthorpe ward in May.

Current Council: Con 42; LD 8; Lab 4; 1 vacancy

[markgoodair]

what date are these being held?

[Tony Otim]

Nov 27, 2023 13:03:41 GMT markgoodair said:

what date are these being held?

Sorry - thread title now correct, fingers working faster than my brain today or something like that...

[carolus]

Isle of Wight looks like one for those who enjoyed predicting Kearsley a couple of weeks ago...

[batman]

The Labour candidate does look like a potentially good one there. I've been to Ventnor & am surprised it has a Labour Mayor, though I wouldn't have thought it's a strongly Tory little town either. Went to 2 good pubs around there, one in Ventnor itself and one in Bonchurch which I think is conjoined to Ventnor. 

[Tony Otim]

Nov 27, 2023 14:16:36 GMT carolus said:

Isle of Wight looks like one for those who enjoyed predicting Kearsley a couple of weeks ago...

Yeah - there's a lot of localist votes from 2021 to be picked up. On paper the Labour candidate looks well-placed and the Lib Dem is the only one not from Ventnor (from Newport instead), but I thought that might have had an impact in Wootton Bridge earlier in the year, but the Lib Dems won that comfortably, so I could see any of the 3 winning and it not being a huge surprise...

[kevinf]

As someone who was an agent for a 23rd December by-election, can I express sympathy for all those campaigning in these?

[Khunanup]

Nov 27, 2023 14:42:57 GMT batman said:

The Labour candidate does look like a potentially good one there. I've been to Ventnor & am surprised it has a Labour Mayor, though I wouldn't have thought it's a strongly Tory little town either. Went to 2 good pubs around there, one in Ventnor itself and one in Bonchurch which I think is conjoined to Ventnor. 

Looks like he was co-opted though so don't think he's been through an electoral test for the Town Council.

With the exception of Lake and parts of Ryde, the eastern urban strip on The Island is pretty weak sauce for Labour.

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 27, 2023 16:25:50 GMT Khunanup said:

Nov 27, 2023 14:42:57 GMT batman said:

The Labour candidate does look like a potentially good one there. I've been to Ventnor & am surprised it has a Labour Mayor, though I wouldn't have thought it's a strongly Tory little town either. Went to 2 good pubs around there, one in Ventnor itself and one in Bonchurch which I think is conjoined to Ventnor. 

Looks like he was co-opted though so don't think he's been through an electoral test for the Town Council.

With the exception of Lake and parts of Ryde, the eastern urban strip on The Island is pretty weak sauce for Labour.

He polled well for Labour in 2021, better than they did in Lake and everywhere in Ryde except Ryde West. I expect a good postal vote campaign wins this, given the timing, so campaign organisation is crucial.

[yellowperil]

Looking at the 10 remaing election places in 2023 (at this moment) 5 are LibDem defences and 5 Cons. Very long shot,obviously, but I am wondering what odds I could get on Lib Dems winning all 10?

[The Bishop]

Dec 9, 2023 11:11:08 GMT yellowperil said:

Looking at the 10 remaing election places in 2023 (at this moment) 5 are LibDem defences and 5 Cons. Very long shot,obviously, but I am wondering what odds I could get on Lib Dems winning all 10?

You lost your bet

[yellowperil]

Dec 16, 2023 11:55:18 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 9, 2023 11:11:08 GMT yellowperil said:

Looking at the 10 remaing election places in 2023 (at this moment) 5 are LibDem defences and 5 Cons. Very long shot,obviously, but I am wondering what odds I could get on Lib Dems winning all 10?

You lost your bet

No I didn't. If you look you will see the above was a question, not a statement of intent.  In the prediction contest I went for the Tories holding the Warks county seat and one of the two Rugby seats. I wonder what the odds were on that?

[Chris from Brum]

Anyway ... so far it's 3 LD holds, 2 Con holds and 2 LD gains. Next Thursday it's 2 LD defences and one Con defence, and the odds must be on three holds for the defending parties, though the Isle of Wight is the sort of place where a shock result might come out of left field, particularly as Vectis has disbanded and the localists are nowhere to be seen this time around. Plus the local LD party seems to have revived a little.

[phil156]

They will all count on Thursday evening leaving us to celebrate Christmas on Friday

[yellowperil]

Dec 19, 2023 14:49:50 GMT phil156 said:

They will all count on Thursday evening leaving us to celebrate Christmas on Friday

Personally, I will celebrate Christmas on Monday.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Dec 19, 2023 16:41:23 GMT yellowperil said:

Dec 19, 2023 14:49:50 GMT phil156 said:

They will all count on Thursday evening leaving us to celebrate Christmas on Friday

Personally, I will celebrate Christmas on Monday.

How very British of you.

[phil156]

Dec 19, 2023 16:41:23 GMT yellowperil said:

Dec 19, 2023 14:49:50 GMT phil156 said:

They will all count on Thursday evening leaving us to celebrate Christmas on Friday

Personally, I will celebrate Christmas on Monday.

     I was actually thinking of the counters, polling station staff, Returning officers etc think they should be celebrating Christmas when they pack up on Friday 

[John Chanin]

Medium seem to have changed their procedure, and are regularly now putting these up first thing in the morning rather than after midday.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-three-local-by-elections-of-21st-december-2023-8cdc378f5d6e

[minionofmidas]

Dec 21, 2023 7:52:55 GMT John Chanin said:

Medium seem to have changed their procedure, and are regularly now putting these up first thing in the morning rather than after midday.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-three-local-by-elections-of-21st-december-2023-8cdc378f5d6e

 Councils run around in ever-decreasing circles around Miss Sophie’s birthday party table trying to balance their budgets and serve their residents and guests; and they have become more and more disoriented in the process. 

Beautiful. Thank you andrewteale for that image!

[monksfield]

Excellent review of the year from Andrew