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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 15, 2024 7:02:08 GMT
Polling stations have opened. Let the fun begin.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Feb 15, 2024 7:49:19 GMT
If the Tories really thought they were in play you’d have every minister / wannabe up there getting photographed (even if not with the candidate) and wanting to take some credit for the famous victory.
Looks like they’ve all stayed away to me - they don’t seem to believe that poll.
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Post by batman on Feb 15, 2024 8:09:08 GMT
I've said it before and I'll have many opportunities to say it again: Labour are crap at by elections. you can say it as often as you like, but a few months after Mid-Beds, Selby & Ainsty and Tamworth it is a very silly thing to say. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 15, 2024 8:18:34 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Feb 15, 2024 9:31:35 GMT
I've said it before and I'll have many opportunities to say it again: Labour are crap at by elections. you can say it as often as you like, but a few months after Mid-Beds, Selby & Ainsty and Tamworth it is a very silly thing to say. Being crap doesn't mean Labour don't win by elections, it means they don't win all they should, often underperform when they do win, and their by election campaigns often run into issues. And this is another one. |
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Post by batman on Feb 15, 2024 10:41:12 GMT
OK. Rochdale is obviously what I believe colloquially is known as a clusterfuck. It's certainly possible to argue that Labour should have done even better in Wakefield, but that was quite some time ago now. Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a seat that Labour should have won & didn't - though personally having been involved in the campaign I'd say that was at least as much to do with a very effective Tory campaign as with shortcomings in the Labour one. That particular constituency has a by-election every quarter of a century which the Tories win, and I'd say Labour's campaign in 2023 was a great deal better than it was either in 1972 or 1997, although one could say with plenty of justification that that isn't saying much.
But no fair assessment of Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds or Tamworth could come to the conclusion that there was any shortcoming in any of the Labour campaigns in those constituencies, and they're all within the last year. They were textbook. You are guilty of generalisation. "Labour can sometimes be crap in by-elections" would be fair. "Labour is crap at by-elections" isn't.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 15, 2024 11:26:31 GMT
"Labour underperforms in local by-elections" is a much easier argument to make - albeit with the caveat that it is much more difficult for us to completely reinvent ourselves in the way Green or LD candidates can, because the electorate has a better idea of what Labour and the Conservatives stand for than they do for challenger parties. But parliamentary by-elections are a different creature.
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Post by uthacalthing on Feb 15, 2024 13:07:31 GMT
it is much more difficult for us to completely reinvent ourselves in the way Green or LD candidates can, because the electorate has a better idea of what Labour and the Conservatives stand for than they do for challenger parties. Quoted for emphasis. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 15, 2024 13:34:57 GMT
I've said it before and I'll have many opportunities to say it again: Labour are crap at by elections. you can say it as often as you like, but a few months after Mid-Beds, Selby & Ainsty and Tamworth it is a very silly thing to say. Perhaps what he means is that Labour are crap at holding their own seats in by-elections (Rochdale, JHartlepool, Batley & Spen (only just)), whereas gaining seats from the Conservatives (Beds Mid, Selby & Ainsty, Tamworth) is easy because they just have to rely on the government being unpopular. |
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Post by batman on Feb 15, 2024 13:42:09 GMT
It is most assuredly not easy to win either Mid Beds or Selby & Ainsty, at least on the latter's current boundaries. Labour has never been close to winning in Mid Beds until last year. Remember there is only one solitary Labour district councillor in the entire constituency even now, and that is only in a small corner of a ward the rest of which is in the Bedford constituency.
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Post by uthacalthing on Feb 15, 2024 13:44:45 GMT
If the Tories really thought they were in play you’d have every minister / wannabe up there getting photographed (even if not with the candidate) and wanting to take some credit for the famous victory. Looks like they’ve all stayed away to me - they don’t seem to believe that poll. But as we have established they are clueless. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 15, 2024 14:02:03 GMT
you can say it as often as you like, but a few months after Mid-Beds, Selby & Ainsty and Tamworth it is a very silly thing to say. Perhaps what he means is that Labour are crap at holding their own seats in by-elections (Rochdale, JHartlepool, Batley & Spen (only just)), whereas gaining seats from the Conservatives (Beds Mid, Selby & Ainsty, Tamworth) is easy because they just have to rely on the government being unpopular. Labour's results in Chester/Stretford and Urmston/W Lancs were hardly "crap". You can add Rutherglen to the not crap pile as well. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Feb 15, 2024 14:34:56 GMT
It is most assuredly not easy to win either Mid Beds or Selby & Ainsty, at least on the latter's current boundaries. Labour has never been close to winning in Mid Beds until last year. Remember there is only one solitary Labour district councillor in the entire constituency even now, and that is only in a small corner of a ward the rest of which is in the Bedford constituency. Labour did actually come close in Mid-Beds in 1945- 1950 - 1951 - and again in 1966. Admittedly the boundaries were not identical. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 15, 2024 14:44:20 GMT
It is most assuredly not easy to win either Mid Beds or Selby & Ainsty, at least on the latter's current boundaries. Labour has never been close to winning in Mid Beds until last year. Remember there is only one solitary Labour district councillor in the entire constituency even now, and that is only in a small corner of a ward the rest of which is in the Bedford constituency. Labour did actually come close in Mid-Beds in 1945- 1950 - 1951 - and again in 1966. Admittedly the boundaries were not identical. I like you Graham, but the reason people take a deep breath about some of your predictions is that you don't seem to take enough account of demographic change, byelection turnout, the likely effect a national "change" election momentum will have on over-riding local issues, etc. As it happens, I am more sympathetic with your views about Wimbledon than others are, but that is because there is a far more recent example of Labour victory with less demographic change than between, say, Mid-Beds in 1966 and Mid-Beds today. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Feb 15, 2024 15:01:03 GMT
Labour did actually come close in Mid-Beds in 1945- 1950 - 1951 - and again in 1966. Admittedly the boundaries were not identical. I like you Graham, but the reason people take a deep breath about some of your predictions is that you don't seem to take enough account of demographic change, byelection turnout, the likely effect a national "change" election momentum will have on over-riding local issues, etc. As it happens, I am more sympathetic with your views about Wimbledon than others are, but that is because there is a far more recent example of Labour victory with less demographic change than between, say, Mid-Beds in 1966 and Mid-Beds today. I fully accept that 1966 is a fair time ago - and that by elections are a very different animal to general elections! |
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Feb 15, 2024 15:30:21 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Feb 15, 2024 15:40:03 GMT
OK. Rochdale is obviously what I believe colloquially is known as a clusterfuck. It's certainly possible to argue that Labour should have done even better in Wakefield, but that was quite some time ago now. Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a seat that Labour should have won & didn't - though personally having been involved in the campaign I'd say that was at least as much to do with a very effective Tory campaign as with shortcomings in the Labour one. That particular constituency has a by-election every quarter of a century which the Tories win, and I'd say Labour's campaign in 2023 was a great deal better than it was either in 1972 or 1997, although one could say with plenty of justification that that isn't saying much. But no fair assessment of Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds or Tamworth could come to the conclusion that there was any shortcoming in any of the Labour campaigns in those constituencies, and they're all within the last year. They were textbook. You are guilty of generalisation. "Labour can sometimes be crap in by-elections" would be fair. "Labour is crap at by-elections" isn't. Uxbridge. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Feb 15, 2024 16:03:12 GMT
That is pretty poor, but then again Northamptonshire has the excuse of their previous financial difficulties as to why they can’t spend lavishly on the count! Or do they know something that we don’t and expect multiple recounts… When was the last time we had to wait until well into the next morning for a BE? And it’s not like it’s a super rural seat where it takes time for the ballot boxes to travel. I’m sure we got Tiverton & Honiton in the middle of the night, and the count didn’t even take place in the constituency itself! |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 15, 2024 16:03:31 GMT
OK. Rochdale is obviously what I believe colloquially is known as a clusterfuck. It's certainly possible to argue that Labour should have done even better in Wakefield, but that was quite some time ago now. Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a seat that Labour should have won & didn't - though personally having been involved in the campaign I'd say that was at least as much to do with a very effective Tory campaign as with shortcomings in the Labour one. That particular constituency has a by-election every quarter of a century which the Tories win, and I'd say Labour's campaign in 2023 was a great deal better than it was either in 1972 or 1997, although one could say with plenty of justification that that isn't saying much. But no fair assessment of Selby & Ainsty, Mid Beds or Tamworth could come to the conclusion that there was any shortcoming in any of the Labour campaigns in those constituencies, and they're all within the last year. They were textbook. You are guilty of generalisation. "Labour can sometimes be crap in by-elections" would be fair. "Labour is crap at by-elections" isn't. Uxbridge. I would point the honourable gentleman to the statement made earlier. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 15, 2024 16:11:01 GMT
That is pretty poor, but then again Northamptonshire has the excuse of their previous financial difficulties as to why they can’t spend lavishly on the count! Or do they know something that we don’t and expect multiple recounts… When was the last time we had to wait until well into the next morning for a BE? And it’s not like it’s a super rural seat where it takes time for the ballot boxes to travel. I’m sure we got Tiverton & Honiton in the middle of the night, and the count didn’t even take place in the constituency itself! There’s no way a count should take 12 hours, especially on a by-election turnout, unless it’s ultra close, something the council can’t know right now. Norwich North I think was the last by-election to count the next day, which is different from a 10pm-10am count. |
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