Local Council By-elections 2nd November 2023

[andrewp]

This week marks half way through the May 2023- May 2024 BE year. Numbers below updated following this weeks contests.

Excluding countermanded elections, up to 2nd November , there have now been 86 ordinary by elections since May 4th.

The Conservatives have defended 22- Held 5 and lost 17: 5 to the Greens, 7 to the Lib Dem’s, 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 23%) ) and have gained 5

Labour have defended 36- Held 27 and lost 9: 3 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 75% ) and have gained 7

Lib Dem’s have defended 10: Held 8 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 80%) ) and have gained 11
Greens have defended 7: Held 4 and lost 3: 1 to the Conservatives, 1 to Labour and 1 to an Independent( retention rate 57%) and have gained 7
There have been elections for 3 seats previously held by Independents and all 3 have been won by an another Independent. And Independents have gained 6
Residents have defended 3, held 2 and lost 1 to the Lib Dems.
PAB have defended 1, held 1
SNP have defended 3 Lost 3, 1 to the Conservatives and 2 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dem’s


Overall net changes

Con -12
Lab -2
LD +9
Green +4
Ind + 6
SNP -3
Res -1
Vectis -1

[peterw]

Nov 3, 2023 13:30:14 GMT greatkingrat said:

Nov 3, 2023 13:08:02 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Not much enthusiasm for freedom or the future on Kintyre I see.

I assume he's not the snooker player?

Indeed not: 

freedomalliance.co.uk/leadership/

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Nov 3, 2023 11:51:24 GMT carolus said:

Nov 3, 2023 10:10:29 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

I doubt Tory councillors feel less than safe around there with Buckinghamshire Council all up in May).

For what it's worth, I don't think Buckinghamshire has its full elections until 2025.

You're right on reflection. I'd based it on the previous set being scheduled for 2020 (but postponed to 2021). However, as it is a new authority, I think the 2020 elections had originally been planned for a one year "shadow" term, then four years to 2025.

Still, all the more reason why Buckingham Tories will potentially be rather pinned down in Buckingham rather than the Bletchley part of the seat assuming an election in the latter part of 2024. Potentially, this is a seat where it's less a case of a divided opposition and more being caught in a pincer, as they may struggle to pile up sufficient votes in the Buckingham part which, in the past, would've been a banker for the Tories.

[owainsutton]

Nov 3, 2023 10:16:21 GMT matureleft said:

 I'm not sure any party is committed to its abolition?

*raises hand*

[weld]

Nov 3, 2023 6:44:36 GMT weld said:

Labour now hold half the seats in Cripplegate. They got 40% in this contest after getting a combined 36% in 2022:

They previously held 6 of the 100 seats on the City of London corporation before the 2022 election. This is only the second City by-election that Labour have won. The last one was in Castle Baynard a few years ago. If Labour stands more candidates they could probably win more seats in Aldersgate ward next time, which covers the rest of the Barbican estate and the Golden Lane estate.

If Labour increased their vote share across the City in line with how they did in this by-election, they could gain their first seats in Farringdon Within and Farringdon Without. It's not inconceivable that Labour could win 10 seats in the City in 2025. Still, there are independents who are Labour members (I believe this is the case with two of the Councillors in Portsoken ward). I expect Labour to field more candidates in Aldersgate in 2025. To win seats in Farringdon Within, Labour may just need to flip Amen Corner where the St Paul's Cathedral canons live!

On a good night, you could see Labour hold their (now) four seats in Cripplegate, win the same number in Aldersgate and a seat each in the two Farringdon wards. That said, those last two are less residential so tougher nuts to crack for Labour, but the City is committed to building 40 homes a year so there's a gradual increase in the Corporation's resident population over time.

Since contesting seats in the City, Labour have now won eight seats, the one's they currently hold, two in Portsoken (2017) and one in Castle Baynard in 2018.