ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Nov 3, 2023 9:57:08 GMT
The Conservatives will not lose Buckingham & Bletchley because Liberal Democrat activism means that the opposition vote will be fairly evenly split. I’m not convinced by that. It’s far from unusual to have Lib Dem strength in local elections which more or less vanishes in a Westminster election, and in this case Labour are quite clearly the challengers. I suspect notional results may be overstating the Labour position a little because of that Labour councillor in Buckingham West with a personal vote, but the ones I’ve seen suggest the seat is in reach in a landslide scenario. (E.g. Ben Walker ’s figures suggest the swing needed is just over 13%.) Yes I'd agree with YL The bits of MK going into Bletchley and Buckingham are very poor for the Lib Dems and pretty good for Labour. The only place in the constituency with genuine Lib Dem 1st preference support is Winslow, and I can't see any serious Lib Dem effort going into this constituency this time - everything's changed since Buckingham was a Lib Dem target in 2019. Yes Labour aren't strong in the Buckingham area, but a landslide is a landslide. And they've now found lots of anti-Tory votes in an area that the Conservatives have always won. I'd still make the Tories heavy favourites, but if they're in trouble, I doubt it will be split opposition that saves them, rather than their own residual strength. |
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Nov 3, 2023 10:10:29 GMT
That Lib Dem Buckingham win is huge. Helpful boundaries for the Tories, with a swathe of countryside included, a very credible Tory candidate and a proper Labour campaign. I‘d assumed it would unloseable for the blue team. The new boundaries will be more opposition-friendly although Robin stuchbury for Lab has a huge personal vote. I still can’t see the Tories losing Buckingham and Bletchley but if it really is worse than 1997 for them, results like this show the way. The Conservatives will not lose Buckingham & Bletchley because Liberal Democrat activism means that the opposition vote will be fairly evenly split. I think this is one of those seats where the "splitting the opposition vote" point isn't necessarily correct. The new seat is made up of two rather different areas. Firstly, the Bletchley part of Milton Keynes which is Labour/Tory at local elections (Lib Dems do quite well in local elections in Milton Keynes, but not in the Bletchley part). Secondly, Buckingham where the Lib Dems came a distant but very clear second in the now hacked up predecessor seat in 2019 (admittedly an unusual one as the Lib Dem candidate was an ex-Tory cabinet minister and the seat had been the Speaker's for three previous elections). Buckingham is historically very blue, and I'd have thought it's one where a lot of the Lib Dem voters are disaffected Tories who simply wouldn't go so far as to vote Labour. It therefore seems to me it isn't altogether unhelpful for Labour if the Lib Dems pin the Tories down in Buckingham. The alternative is that they weigh the Tory votes in Buckingham, while Labour win in Bletchley but not by enough. This is particularly as Buckingham Tories would feel able to venture into Milton Keynes, but won't if they feel threatened by Lib Dems in their own back yard (noting the Lib Dem by-election winner last night - with a rather spectacular swing - is the Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate and I doubt Tory councillors feel less than safe around there with Buckinghamshire Council all up in May). |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 3, 2023 10:13:01 GMT
I'm just going to mull over the Kintyre result.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 3, 2023 10:15:23 GMT
I'm just going to mull over the Kintyre result. Have we had any reaction from the local islamic cleric, the Mullah Kintyre? |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 3, 2023 10:16:21 GMT
The City of London is an anachronism and a joke, but the Barbican, the Middlesex Street estate and the other scattered residential communities of the City do have a need for representation. Not standing out of principle just denies those residents the representation they deserve. Indeed. There were, I recall, some reforms during the Blair period (fought for by John McDonnell!) that increased the voice of residents. The council itself is not a direct instrument for reform still less abolition - it's there to run various services. So to suggest that avoiding participation is some principled position seems stupid. Major reform would be a matter for government. I'm not sure any party is committed to its abolition? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 3, 2023 10:57:56 GMT
One issue is what you'd do with the City if you abolished it - it wouldn't be a particularly natural fit in any of the neighbouring boroughs, and whilst it might be theoretically possible to hive off three of the residential wards to neighbours, that's not really possible with Queenhithe and still doesn't deal with the business wards.
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Nov 3, 2023 11:31:11 GMT
One issue is what you'd do with the City if you abolished it - it wouldn't be a particularly natural fit in any of the neighbouring boroughs, and whilst it might be theoretically possible to hive off three of the residential wards to neighbours, that's not really possible with Queenhithe and still doesn't deal with the business wards. I wonder if there would be a way to essentially separate out some key services for the resident population so those are administered by a neighbouring borough, with the residents electing a couple of councillors for that? It would clearly need legislation as that'd be a unique situation. Not sure I entirely agree with the "anachronism" point. There are a lot of historical oddities about it, but it hasn't remained purely out of some sort of misplaced sense of tradition. It's an area where well over half a million people work, but fewer than 10k live. I know there are business districts elsewhere, but that's extreme. If the businesses didn't have a very stong involvement in governance, it really would be the tail wagging the dog in the City of London. That's not to dismiss the issue of defects in how the relatively small number of residents are represented, but it isn't some bit of crazy historical nonsense for the City of London to have very different arrangements. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 3, 2023 11:37:27 GMT
One issue is what you'd do with the City if you abolished it - it wouldn't be a particularly natural fit in any of the neighbouring boroughs, and whilst it might be theoretically possible to hive off three of the residential wards to neighbours, that's not really possible with Queenhithe and still doesn't deal with the business wards. I think you'd have to split the City. As a whole it would fit badly with its neighbours, but Portsoken ward is effectively a continuation of Tower Hamlets, the north has a somewhat porous boundary with Islington (as illustrated by the Golden Lane Estate moving in the 1990s), and Strand merges seamlessly into Fleet Street. As you identify, the hardest part would be the business wards - the centre of the City of London feels least out of place in Westminster (which also has large non-residential areas in large parts of wards like St James's and West End), but geographically this isn't a good fit and it would look bizarre on a map. In a fantasy world, I'd have everything within the Congestion Charge zone as part of a "Central London" council. The neighbourhoods here almost always have relatively unique issues and are different from the more residential areas which dominate their respective boroughs. But practically I think all of those inner boroughs would fight tooth and nail to keep areas that generate huge sums of business rates (even if much of this is redistributed elsewhere). |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 3, 2023 11:42:27 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2023 11:42:57 GMT
That Lib Dem Buckingham win is huge. Helpful boundaries for the Tories, with a swathe of countryside included, a very credible Tory candidate and a proper Labour campaign. I‘d assumed it would unloseable for the blue team. The new boundaries will be more opposition-friendly although Robin stuchbury for Lab has a huge personal vote. I still can’t see the Tories losing Buckingham and Bletchley but if it really is worse than 1997 for them, results like this show the way. I have not come across any up and downs percentages as yet but yes a big swing to LD I have seen a claim the Tories are down by about 6% (using the "top vote" method) which seems a bit low? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Nov 3, 2023 11:46:43 GMT
I have not come across any up and downs percentages as yet but yes a big swing to LD I have seen a claim the Tories are down by about 6% (using the "top vote" method) which seems a bit low? That’s what I got, but note that I treat Independents separately (not as a slate) and there were two who got respectable shares last time, which tends to suppress the party shares. I’ll check again later in case I made a mistake. |
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Post by carolus on Nov 3, 2023 11:51:24 GMT
I doubt Tory councillors feel less than safe around there with Buckinghamshire Council all up in May). For what it's worth, I don't think Buckinghamshire has its full elections until 2025. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2023 11:54:14 GMT
I have seen a claim the Tories are down by about 6% (using the "top vote" method) which seems a bit low? That’s what I got, but note that I treat Independents separately (not as a slate) and there were two who got respectable shares last time, which tends to suppress the party shares. I’ll check again later in case I made a mistake. This is a very significant point in some contests, and its difficult to calibrate because it varies according to location! |
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Post by phil156 on Nov 3, 2023 12:00:06 GMT
According to Election Maps Con down 9.6% in Bucks
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 3, 2023 13:08:02 GMT
ARGYLL and BUTE South Kintyre Jennifer Mary KELLY (Independent) 913 John RICHARDSON (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 271 Joe CUNNINGHAM (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 208 Kenny MACKENZIE (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 183 Alan MCMANUS (For Future's Sake - Freedom Alliance) 7 Won on first preferences. Not much enthusiasm for freedom or the future on Kintyre I see. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 3, 2023 13:12:08 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +159
LDm +97
Grn -22
SNP -25
Con -89
2 holds and a gain for Labour, 2 gains for the LibDems - doesn't take much to work uot that's a good week for both, but the Cons continue to just lose ground. albeit by inches, pretty much everywhere.
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 3, 2023 13:19:07 GMT
Bucklow St Martin's (Trafford) Council By-Election Result:
🌹 LAB: 62.2% (-3.3)
🌳 CON: 22.3% (+3.3)
➡️ RFM: 6.4% (New)
🌍 GRN: 6.3% (-3.8)
🔶 LDM: 2.8% (-2.8)
Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 3, 2023 13:30:14 GMT
ARGYLL and BUTE South Kintyre Jennifer Mary KELLY (Independent) 913 John RICHARDSON (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 271 Joe CUNNINGHAM (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 208 Kenny MACKENZIE (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 183 Alan MCMANUS (For Future's Sake - Freedom Alliance) 7 Won on first preferences. Not much enthusiasm for freedom or the future on Kintyre I see. I assume he's not the snooker player? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2023 13:34:20 GMT
I used to live in Olney and campaigned with the local Tories in 2013-16. I think the Lib Dems winning Bletchley is tough. I also note that Labour have won a seat in Buckingham before. It’s a weird place with a weird, private university, but I think Labour could do better there. It might be that this is a 40-25-25 seat with split opposition. I think Labour are better placed based on my knowledge of the area. Plus Bletchley is growing and I’m not sure Buckingham is growing as fast. I may be wrong though.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 3, 2023 13:39:20 GMT
Re Buckinghamshire.
If you treat the 2021 Indies as a team then the changes are
Con -9.6
Lab +5.7
LD +28.1
Green -6.4
If you treat them individually. Then the changes are
Con -5.7
Lab +7.2
LD +29.2
Green -5.4
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