|
|
Post by jknine on Oct 27, 2023 4:58:16 GMT
If the Labour vote drops -3.6% in every area with a significant Muslim population, like Waltham Forest, it would make a parliamentary majority virtually impossible, wouldn’t it? No, because Labour already holds almost all such seats with massive majorities. There are not many marginals in which the muslim vote is significant. How about all the seats in Glasgow? ¿And elsewhere in Scotland? There is a substantial Muslim vote in Glasgow. At present, on the polls, they are predicted to go SNP —> Lab. will this - potentially - make a difference? |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612 
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 27, 2023 5:16:09 GMT
Confirmation that Engel won in Herefordshire
Engel 548
Con 249
Lab 34
Jones 34
LD 30
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 27, 2023 5:23:07 GMT
That’s ( changes from May) Lab -9.8% Con +2.3% LD +7.8% Green -1% CCP +0.4% TUSC -0.2% |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 5:48:03 GMT
If the Labour vote drops -3.6% in every area with a significant Muslim population, like Waltham Forest, it would make a parliamentary majority virtually impossible, wouldn’t it? How? The swing among every other group is such that it wouldn't be that significant. I also doubt it will happen. I just had 120 Gujarati Muslims in for a Mendhi. I chatted with the fellows preparing the food and some of the women. They were upset about Palestine, but most were still voting Labour, in fact, none said they weren't. Without trying to dismiss your anecdote, how representative are Gujarati Muslims? Are they a big group like Bangladeshis or Pakistanis? I believe not. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Oct 27, 2023 6:44:00 GMT
How? The swing among every other group is such that it wouldn't be that significant. I also doubt it will happen. I just had 120 Gujarati Muslims in for a Mendhi. I chatted with the fellows preparing the food and some of the women. They were upset about Palestine, but most were still voting Labour, in fact, none said they weren't. Without trying to dismiss your anecdote, how representative are Gujarati Muslims? Are they a big group like Bangladeshis or Pakistanis? I believe not. You really don't know a thing about this do you? But never mind, wade in and blert it out. Third Biggest Group in numbers, second in significance because of the way the vote concentrates. Concentrations in Blackburn, Dewsbury, Leicester, North West London etc. Oh, Pakistani Muslims aren't very important electorally, Kashmiri Muslims are, there's a considerable difference between them. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 6:44:59 GMT
Without trying to dismiss your anecdote, how representative are Gujarati Muslims? Are they a big group like Bangladeshis or Pakistanis? I believe not. You really don't know a thing about this do you? My wife is a Muslim from Karachi, Pakistan, so I do in fact "know a thing" about this. If you haven't got anything nice to say... I believe Bangladeshis and Pakistani Muslims are electorally significant if they simply stay at home in 2024, which many well might. For example, Bedford, a seat with a Muslim MP, was won by 145 votes in 2019, largely helped by a bloc vote from Muslims there. |
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Oct 27, 2023 6:52:06 GMT
My legs are very stiff. They're not used to doing GOTV on Burnley hills.
|
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Oct 27, 2023 7:02:46 GMT
You really don't know a thing about this do you? My wife is a Muslim from Karachi, Pakistan, so I do in fact "know a thing" about this. If you haven't got anything nice to say... I believe Bangladeshis and Pakistani Muslims are electorally significant if they simply stay at home in 2024, which many well might. As you don't understand the vast differences between Pakistani and Kashmiri Muslims in the UK, then no, you still don't understand a thing about it. There are much smaller numbers of Pakistanis from Lahore. Karachi etc and they have a different culture and are not as organised into biraderi as the Kashmiri grouping. If they all stayed home, which they won't btw, it really wouldn't make that big a difference in most seats, there would be some changes but not that many on more plausible scenarios. And you are consistently condescending and overbearing about things you know very little about. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,397
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 7:19:32 GMT
I'm really sorry to say this weld but I fear that Iain is right. This forum is to learn as well as teach. I am married to a South Indian Christian, but of course I am neither of those things myself, and if I were to pretend that I know everything about the South Indian Christian community in other parts of London (there are of course very few such people in my borough, although we did have a Keralite restaurant in Twickenham until recently), I'd be telling a lie; there are still aspects about that culture I don't entirely understand even after decades of marriage. You are getting really overexcited and exaggerating the possible effects of various things. It's a bit like having Father Dougal Maguire at his most excitable in the forum, albeit of course you are far less thick than he is.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 7:37:35 GMT
My wife is a Muslim from Karachi, Pakistan, so I do in fact "know a thing" about this. If you haven't got anything nice to say... I believe Bangladeshis and Pakistani Muslims are electorally significant if they simply stay at home in 2024, which many well might. And you are consistently condescending and overbearing about things you know very little about. Fair point. I stand corrected. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 7:41:31 GMT
You are getting really overexcited and exaggerating the possible effects of various things. It's a bit like having Father Dougal Maguire at his most excitable in the forum, albeit of course you are far less thick than he is. That's just the autism lol. The forum mustn't take that too personally or seriously. My fixations have their uses, but they are a fact of life. Also, and I’ve asked you a few times. If you are addressing me directly on this forum, can you please tag me? Just put an @. I like to respond to things directly (or even respond to have the last word aha). That said, I wonder if this forum might be improved if more users read to understand rather than read to reply. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 7:58:22 GMT
Having finally made it there to do some canvassing today, I stand by the above. W&I feels as unpredictable as ever, the Tory vote is crumbling but no clarity as to where it will go (or whether it might just stay at home). We shouldn't have any trouble retaining our strength in Trinity, and Briggs will surely cause a Labour surge in the part of Gannow involved...so....dunno. The Conservative in the County Election, Don Whittaker, has worked this seat hard, and may have been helped by the endorsement of Neil Mottershed, the Independent Councillor for Gannow. Given the national picture, and the very mixed demographic of this area, it would be extraordinary if the Tories gained this . The ward ranges from some of the most deprived areas in the North of England, to a National Trust Property to some rather leafy suburbs ... If Labour want to regain this seat at the next General Election, it should be looking to take this by-election with a comfortable majority. Burnley had a Labour MP from 1935 until 2010, but the Lib-Dems won in 2010, Labour regained in 2015 and held in 2017, but a 6,353 Labour majority was overturned in 2019 and Antony Heginbotham won for the Conservatives by 1,352 votes, despite the Brexit Party scoring 3,362 votes ... As " owainsutton " says, who knows !!  Charlie Briggs is Mr Gannow effectively, so he must have had a significant chunk here, if not a majority of votes from that part, but the Greens must have done some heavy canvassing in Whittlefield and Ightenhill for them to win in a by election. I used to live in Trinity and it isn't surprising that Andy Fewings' Green team did well there, they've established a good base there over the last few years. |
|
|
|
Post by grumpyguy on Oct 27, 2023 8:15:43 GMT
You really don't know a thing about this do you? My wife is a Muslim from Karachi, Pakistan, so I do in fact "know a thing" about this. If you haven't got anything nice to say... I believe Bangladeshis and Pakistani Muslims are electorally significant if they simply stay at home in 2024, which many well might. For example, Bedford, a seat with a Muslim MP, was won by 145 votes in 2019, largely helped by a bloc vote from Muslims there. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 8:36:10 GMT
Kashmir is split between two states and not that heavily populated on the Pakistani side, IIRC. I hope in my lifetime Kashmir is resolved and we see a separate Sikh state too. if we're hellbent on ethno states in this day and age, let's go the whole hog - Kurdistan, Khalistan, Palestine. Also a Taiwan that claims to be Taiwan not ROC.
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 27, 2023 9:29:04 GMT
Numbers below updated following this weeks contests.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 26th October , there have now been 80 ordinary by elections since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 21 - Held 5 and lost 16: 5 to the Greens, 6 to the Lib Dem’s, 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 24%) and have gained 5
Labour have defended 34- Held 25 and lost 9: 3 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 74%) ) and have gained 6
Lib Dem’s have defended 10: Held 8 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 80%) ) and have gained 9
Greens have defended 6: Held 4 and lost 2. 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to an Independent( retention rate 66%) and have gained 7
There have been elections for 2 seats previously held by Independents and both have been won by an another Independent. And Independents have gained 6
Residents have defended 2, held 2
PAB have defended 1, held 1
SNP have defended 3 Lost 3, 1 to the Conservatives and 2 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dem’s
Overall net changes
Con -11
Lab -3
LD +7
Green +5
Ind + 6
SNP -3
Vectis -1
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
Member is Online
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 27, 2023 9:42:08 GMT
Also a Taiwan that claims to be Taiwan not ROC. PRC would never stand for that. It tolerates Taiwan as long as it doesn't formally declare independence. |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 27, 2023 9:44:01 GMT
How? The swing among every other group is such that it wouldn't be that significant. I also doubt it will happen. I just had 120 Gujarati Muslims in for a Mendhi. I chatted with the fellows preparing the food and some of the women. They were upset about Palestine, but most were still voting Labour, in fact, none said they weren't. Without trying to dismiss your anecdote, how representative are Gujarati Muslims? Are they a big group like Bangladeshis or Pakistanis? I believe not. They are the largest group of Muslims in areas of Blackburn, and were responsible for a big swing which elected Tiger Patel as a Conservative councillor in the normally safely Labour Audley & Queens Park ward. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 27, 2023 9:46:13 GMT
GWBWI
Grn +75
Lab +69
LDm +9
Con -30
Five holds means small scores.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 9:50:21 GMT
Without trying to dismiss your anecdote, how representative are Gujarati Muslims? Are they a big group like Bangladeshis or Pakistanis? I believe not. They are the largest group of Muslims in areas of Blackburn, and were responsible for a big swing which elected Tiger Patel as a Conservative councillor in the normally safely Labour Audley & Queens Park ward. What a fantastic name for a Councillor. I wonder what happened to him. |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 27, 2023 9:56:54 GMT
They are the largest group of Muslims in areas of Blackburn, and were responsible for a big swing which elected Tiger Patel as a Conservative councillor in the normally safely Labour Audley & Queens Park ward. What a fantastic name for a Councillor. I wonder what happened to him. Well, as we know, he left the Tories a couple of weeks ago, beating the Labour Gaza defectors in his "principled" decision. I have been waiting for him to quit the Tories since he was elected, and I am amused that he was probably planning to join Labour but finds the Gaza situation to be a block for him. |
|
