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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 26, 2023 22:47:39 GMT
WALTHAM FOREST Higham Hill Shumon Saifur ALI-RAHMAN (Labour Party) 924 Alex LEWIS (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 268 Abigail Kate WOODMAN (Green Party) 198 Nancy TAAFFE (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 144 Moufazzal BHUIYAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 78 Not particularly close, but good to beat the Greens for second place. Awful for the Tories. GWBWI actually gives the Cons +1 for that. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Oct 26, 2023 22:50:51 GMT
Lab 57.3% LD 16.6% Green 12.3% TUSC 8.9% Con 4.8% Lab -3.6 LD +7.0 Grn -7.8 TUSC +4.1 Con +0.2 |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 26, 2023 22:56:43 GMT
Just waiting for CCHQ to spin that as a 1.9% swing from Lab > Con  |
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Post by ideal4radio on Oct 26, 2023 22:57:20 GMT
TBH, despite being very familiar with Burnley Greens' activities and campaigns, I have absolutely no idea. Whittlefield with Ightenhill in particular throws up unexpected outcomes. Having finally made it there to do some canvassing today, I stand by the above. W&I feels as unpredictable as ever, the Tory vote is crumbling but no clarity as to where it will go (or whether it might just stay at home). We shouldn't have any trouble retaining our strength in Trinity, and Briggs will surely cause a Labour surge in the part of Gannow involved...so....dunno. The Conservative in the County Election, Don Whittaker, has worked this seat hard, and may have been helped by the endorsement of Neil Mottershed, the Independent Councillor for Gannow. Given the national picture, and the very mixed demographic of this area, it would be extraordinary if the Tories gained this . The ward ranges from some of the most deprived areas in the North of England, to a National Trust Property to some rather leafy suburbs ... If Labour want to regain this seat at the next General Election, it should be looking to take this by-election with a comfortable majority. Burnley had a Labour MP from 1935 until 2010, but the Lib-Dems won in 2010, Labour regained in 2015 and held in 2017, but a 6,353 Labour majority was overturned in 2019 and Antony Heginbotham won for the Conservatives by 1,352 votes, despite the Brexit Party scoring 3,362 votes ... As " owainsutton " says, who knows !!  |
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Post by carolus on Oct 26, 2023 22:59:26 GMT
Ind victory in Herefordshire, though ALDC don't say which one.
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Post by greenman on Oct 26, 2023 23:07:05 GMT
That's a considerable drop for Labour from 80.1% to 67% down in 2022 to 57.3%. Why that change?
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Oct 26, 2023 23:08:31 GMT
That's a considerable drop for Labour from 80.1% to 67% down in 2022 to 57.3%. Why that change? This was a pre-2010 LD ward. One would assume the Coalition hate is reducing, at last. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 26, 2023 23:11:40 GMT
Herefordshire: We need confirmation, but Engel lives in the middle of the ward and Jones right across the county ... under 4% would be the worst election result ever for an editor of Wisden, I would wager.
However with what us going in in India at present one can't tell for sure ...
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Post by carolus on Oct 26, 2023 23:17:38 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 26, 2023 23:21:01 GMT
Herefordshire: We need confirmation, but Engel lives in the middle of the ward and Jones right across the county ... under 4% would be the worst election result ever for an editor of Wisden, I would wager. However with what us going in in India at present one can't tell for sure ... Has an editor of Wisden ever topped 60%? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 26, 2023 23:21:32 GMT
No sign of the Labour Muslim collapse yet.
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Post by phil156 on Oct 26, 2023 23:35:21 GMT
Herefordshire: We need confirmation, but Engel lives in the middle of the ward and Jones right across the county ... under 4% would be the worst election result ever for an editor of Wisden, I would wager. However with what us going in in India at present one can't tell for sure ... Has an editor of Wisden ever topped 60%? Havent seen any figures but not surprised if he has |
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Post by greenman on Oct 26, 2023 23:37:29 GMT
Labour is down from 52.3% to 43% in Earlsdon. The Liberal Democrats doubled support and the Conservatives were up 2%.
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 26, 2023 23:40:42 GMT
LANCASHIRE CC, Burnley Central West - Grn hold
Grn 630 (32%, +1%)
Lab 583 (30%, +14%)
C 574 (30%, +6%)
LD 156 (8%, -3%)
(Burnley and Padiham Ind -18%)
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Post by kevinf on Oct 26, 2023 23:41:43 GMT
No sign of the Labour Muslim collapse yet. If the Labour vote drops -3.6% in every area with a significant Muslim population, like Waltham Forest, it would make a parliamentary majority virtually impossible, wouldn’t it? |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 26, 2023 23:43:48 GMT
wow 56 votes between 1st and 3rd!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 26, 2023 23:44:38 GMT
No sign of the Labour Muslim collapse yet. If the Labour vote drops -3.6% in every area with a significant Muslim population, like Waltham Forest, it would make a parliamentary majority virtually impossible, wouldn’t it? No, because Labour already holds almost all such seats with massive majorities. There are not many marginals in which the muslim vote is significant. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 26, 2023 23:45:32 GMT
No sign of the Labour Muslim collapse yet. If the Labour vote drops -3.6% in every area with a significant Muslim population, like Waltham Forest, it would make a parliamentary majority virtually impossible, wouldn’t it? How? The swing among every other group is such that it wouldn't be that significant. I also doubt it will happen. I just had 120 Gujarati Muslims in for a Mendhi. I chatted with the fellows preparing the food and some of the women. They were upset about Palestine, but most were still voting Labour, in fact, none said they weren't. |
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Post by kevinf on Oct 26, 2023 23:46:19 GMT
If the Labour vote drops -3.6% in every area with a significant Muslim population, like Waltham Forest, it would make a parliamentary majority virtually impossible, wouldn’t it? No, because Labour already holds almost all such seats with massive majorities. There are not many marginals in which the muslim vote is significant. Thanks for that info. |
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Post by carolus on Oct 26, 2023 23:51:34 GMT
Burnley, Trinity. Green hold.
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