Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 7:00:59 GMT
I wonder how different results would be if all parties were treated fairly when it came to time in front of a camera how far down the list of parties do you go ? |
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libfozzy
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Post by libfozzy on Jun 21, 2013 7:43:24 GMT
The SNP vote being down by quite so much is really something. I imagine there's a lot of worried people in Gordon Lamb House this morning....
It's also interesting that it was split between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, as well as UKIP. Obviously we don't have enough data to go on, but it indicates that a bit chunk of the SNPs vote, is also quite friendly to UKIP - which if the SNP have traditionally mopped up, might explain why no UKIP rise in Scotland since 2010.
The people who are voting UKIP in England already have their boogie man & party in Scotland...........
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Post by dustymac on Jun 21, 2013 7:55:11 GMT
I wonder how different results would be if all parties were treated fairly when it came to time in front of a camera how far down the list of parties do you go ? I don't know it was just a thought.. Would it make a difference? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 7:57:43 GMT
The SNP vote being down by quite so much is really something. I imagine there's a lot of worried people in Gordon Lamb House this morning.... It's also interesting that it was split between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, as well as UKIP. Obviously we don't have enough data to go on, but it indicates that a bit chunk of the SNPs vote, is also quite friendly to UKIP - which if the SNP have traditionally mopped up, might explain why no UKIP rise in Scotland since 2010. The people who are voting UKIP in England already have their boogie man & party in Scotland........... we should note during all the elections the labour vote has been pretty well the same number. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 21, 2013 8:23:53 GMT
With that result I trust the Scottish Green supporters here will agree that should there be another Scottish Parliament by-election between now and 2016, and UKIP are excluded from any hustings, that the Scottish Green Party candidate should similarly be excluded. Just for the record, the Greens were not part of the BBC hustings - only the big 4 parties were, with each of the other candidates being given a soundbite. It was the Youth Hustings (nothing to do with BBC) that invited the Greens and not UKIP. Your distinction between different kinds of MSPs for invitations to hustings is stretching a point - that's not the way the system is set up and the fact you beat us by a few percent in a constituency where we have no strength means diddly squat frankly - i expected you to come 5th based on the national coverage you get at the moment. When you actually have an elected representative in Scotland get back to me about the right to inclusion. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 21, 2013 8:32:15 GMT
Oh yes, SNP mostly attacking Willie Young personally and focusing on ultra local issues like possible proposals to merge primary schools with rolls at 80% and falling. Labour not actually campaigning, just identifying and motivating their vote. Conservatives doing the same on a lesser level. anyone making a prediction yet? The SNP vote will be down, but not by enough to be in any danger c.46% The Labour vote will be a bit up but not by enough to threaten c.33% The Conservative vote will creep up but not by enough for anyone to notice c.9% The Lib Dem vote will continue to fall and it will be touch and go if they keep their deposit c.5% National coverage will get UKIP into 5th place, but they won't keep their deposit c.3% They will try to sell this as making progress but from not standing any vote is progress The Greens will beat the rest of the also rans, but nobody will care c.2% The SCP could come next c.1% The SDA will prove there's no real point to their existence cx.0.5% The knuckledraggers will hopefully come last c.0.5% Overall this wasn't too far out - biggest errors were overestimating the SNP and undestimating LDs (for whom there are glimmers of hope, but no more than glimmers). The Conservatives crept down rather than up and UKIP did a bit better than I said as did the National Front. None of these differences are all that significant from what I predicted. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2013 8:32:47 GMT
... from the state broadcasters hustings ... The BBC is not a state broadcaster. It is a national broadcaster. There is a crucial and fundamental difference. |
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Post by keigen on Jun 21, 2013 8:40:00 GMT
Worryingly for Labour their vote is still lower than the 2007 notional.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 21, 2013 8:57:52 GMT
Worryingly for Labour their vote is still lower than the 2007 notional. Not in percentage terms... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 9:13:57 GMT
Lets face it, the story here is the SNP have bottled it again, half way through a campaign leading towards a vote on Independence they once more refuse to discuss it. A referendum they called. They could have used this by election as a platform for the Yes campaign but went for local issues that were overlooked by a Scottish Press who have ignored the whole thing.
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Post by keigen on Jun 21, 2013 10:26:42 GMT
Lets face it, the story here is the SNP have bottled it again, half way through a campaign leading towards a vote on Independence they once more refuse to discuss it. A referendum they called. They could have used this by election as a platform for the Yes campaign but went for local issues that were overlooked by a Scottish Press who have ignored the whole thing. Why? We have the referendum and the Yes/No campaigns are underway. This was a by-election, a chance for the opposition and electorate to have a pop at the current government. The SNP has got through this pretty much unscathed despite being in government for six years. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Jun 21, 2013 10:36:51 GMT
In percentage terms, and if you include the results from the predecessor Aberdeen North, this was our best result other than 1999, when we got 37%. Our low point being 2011 at 28.5% obviously, you could argue that we have reversed half of a 12 year decline in just 2 years.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2013 10:38:42 GMT
Lets face it, the story here is the SNP have bottled it again, half way through a campaign leading towards a vote on Independence they once more refuse to discuss it. A referendum they called. They could have used this by election as a platform for the Yes campaign but went for local issues that were overlooked by a Scottish Press who have ignored the whole thing. Why? We have the referendum and the Yes/No campaigns are underway. This was a by-election, a chance for the opposition and electorate to have a pop at the current government. The SNP has got through this pretty much unscathed despite being in government for six years. Your posts suggest you aren't that "non-aligned" really  |
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Post by keigen on Jun 21, 2013 10:45:00 GMT
Why? We have the referendum and the Yes/No campaigns are underway. This was a by-election, a chance for the opposition and electorate to have a pop at the current government. The SNP has got through this pretty much unscathed despite being in government for six years. Your posts suggest you aren't that "non-aligned" really I'm not a member of any party but have supported SNP recently. Would identify myself as a green socialist though. |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Jun 21, 2013 10:59:48 GMT
If you apply last nights results to the 2011 election, including the swing from SNP to Lib Dem, the rise of UKIP and the swing to Labour being 5.8% rather than the 9.1% headline rate, the seat tally would be as follows:
Con 15 (n/c) Lab 53 (+16) LD 8 (+3) SNP 45 (-24) GRN 2 (n/c) UKIP 5 (+5) Oth: 1 (n/c)
The Ukip result is a bit surprising, but a result of the fact that if you are around 4.8 - 5 % you start picking up seats on the regional lists.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2013 12:07:51 GMT
You should tell that to the CyberNats on the Grauniad thread who are shrieking that this result means a Yes landslide next year is guaranteed  |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Jun 21, 2013 12:38:43 GMT
Sadly, the Scottish news pages on the Guardian have gone the way of many others - home to a crowd all to eager to shout down the opposition, despite any facts.
Very interesting and accurate analysis there, I think, and although this may well be targetted in 2016, I think Labour's focus will be concentrated on winning back Central. I think Aberdeen South and North Kincardine could be good for us too - last nights swing would require us to overturn a 1,100 majority there which a good strong candidate could do.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 12:59:23 GMT
*mentions the SDA*
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 21, 2013 13:29:27 GMT
I thought it was a pretty good result for UKIP. In one of their weakest areas in the UK they still managed to almost reach 5%.
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 21, 2013 14:15:50 GMT
Your posts suggest you aren't that "non-aligned" really I'm not a member of any party but have supported SNP recently. Would identify myself as a green socialist though. You and I are going to get on perfectly. |
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