Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Sept 11, 2023 8:34:29 GMT
Pete Whitehead, andrewp, and 4 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Sept 11, 2023 8:34:29 GMT
In a way Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale could be simply characterised as apparently the strongest and safest Conservative seat in Scotland. After all, it is the only one that they have held continuously since its creation in 2005, because it represents their sole triumph in 2015, that year of the near clean sweep by the SNP. The constituency has only ever had one MP: David Mundell, who served as Tory Secretary of State for Scotland between 2015 and 2019.
On the other hand, this seat actually could be said to have stemmed from three differing political traditions. Certainly, Dumfriessshire had usually been a Conservative fiefdom, with only Russell Brown of Labour (winning in 1997 and 2001) breaking a tradition of Conservative and National Liberal success dating back to 1931 – and that seat, entitled Dumfries from 1950 to 2005, included the substantial town of that name and not just the outlying county. Dumfries is now located in a division partnered with Galloway. However Clydesdale is in essence in South Lanarkshire, and as a seat just of that name had been won by Labour from 1983 to 2005. Previously the Lanark constituency had also been ‘red team’ since 1959. Finally, Tweeddale had been included with Ettrick and Lauderdale in one of the Liberal Democrats’ ‘borders’ seats. Indeed, its MP had for three elections between 1983 and 1992 been the party and former Liberal leader, David Steel. Therefore ironically the only party that has never triumphed in the varying sections of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is the generally dominant SNP.
This is not in the main a ‘Borders’ constituency, though it does share its boundary with England between the end of the Solway Firth and a point between Caulside and Penton. It is better seen as a large ‘South of Scotland’ seat. It is predominantly rural (with not quite such a high proportion employed in agriculture as its neighbour Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, but still in the top ten seats in the UK on that count), sweeping across the hills indented by river valleys. It also encompasses several small towns, most of which are reasonably prosperous and comfortable residential units, which a lower proportion of social rented housing than usual north of the border. Biggar (population around 2,650) is the example in South Lanarkshire / Clydesdale. The Tweeddale section includes Innerleithen (all of 3,200) and Peebles – indeed the Tweeddale District that existed between 1975 and 1996 was identical to the historic county of Peeblesshire. Peebles itself is home to around 9,000 residents which makes it one of the two largest towns in this seat. Though formerly known for its woollen mills, Peebles was also a hydropathic spa town and boasts some fine examples of hotels in the Scottish baronial style, one of which, Cringletie, has been known to provide a base for the southern Scottish Almanac research.
www.cringletie.com/
Moving in to the largest sub-unit in the seat, Dumfriessshire, there are also historic connections. Moffat (2,500) just off the A74M in Annandale was also a spa town. Further down the river, Annan itself, like Peebles housing around 9,000, was where Thomas Carlyle went to school, being born in the nearby village of Ecclefechan. Langholm is in the valley of the Esk, beween Canonbie and Eskdalemuir. Lochmaben and Lockerbie (site of the 1988 disaster) lie to the west towards Dumfries. One rather different area, north of Dumfries, is mid and upper Nithsdale, with the small town of Sanquhar, which has an industrial past, not only in textiles, but even coal mining, similar to the remote coalfield area of south Ayrshire just across the county boundary.
www.scottish-places.info/towns/townfirst360.html
Finally, perhaps internationally the best known place in the seat, but far from the largest or most typical, is Gretna, at the western end of this constituency’s border with England.
As with the previous parliamentary locations of the parts of the seat, it covers three council areas. From South Lanarkshire we find most of Clydesdale East ward and part of Clydesdale South. The former, around Biggar, gave the Conservatives 40% of its first preferences in the most recent elections in May 2022, to 33.5% for the SNP and 16.4% for Labour - the only place in the whole of the South Lanarkshire district where the Tories came first. The minority of Clydesdale South which is in this seat is centred on Douglas. The SNP came first, Labour second, and the Conservatives left back in third.
Similarly, in the Scottish Borders authority, the ‘Peeblesshire’ part of the constituency covers the whole of Tweeddale West ward (most of Peebles town) and the western half of Tweeddale East, (Innerleithen). In the former in May 2022 the two Conservative candidates polled the most first preferences between them, 28.2%, but this was only just ahead of the SNP (26.2%) and Liberal Democrats (22.8%). In Tweeddale East the SNP were first, Tories second, and Lib Dems not as strong. A word of warning should be entered against extrapolating from local election results, as especially in the rural wards composing Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale personal votes, local factors, and independent candidatures hold weight.
In the third local authority within the division, Dumfries and Galloway, the Conservatives were dominant in Annandale East & Eskdale (Gretna, Langholm), with more than twice as many first preferences in 2022 as any other party, Labour being second and the SNP a very weak third. The Tories were also well ahead in Annandale North (Moffat, Lockerbie, Lochmaben) though the SNP were, at least, second here. The same order of parties pertained in Annandale South (Annan), but both Labour and the Liberal Democrats also achieved a respectable level of support. Finally, in the more anomalous Mid and Upper Nithsdale the SNP shared the honours with an Independent; back in the days of the Nithsdale district (1975-96), Labour did well in many parts of the valley.
Indeed, when Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale was first created, Labour were actually the main challengers to David Mundell and the Tories. Not only did they only lose by 1,738 in the new seat in the 2005 general election, but they finished second again even as Labour were losing their grip on power at Westminster in 2010. By 2019, though, their share had dropped from 32% and 29% in those two contests to a mere 8.5%.
In fact, it is arguable that the ‘unionist’ vote has been so squeezed by the Conservatives that there is a real chance that at some point the SNP may finally register their first ever victory in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale – due to the problems amassed by the Conservative government, or governments, down in Westminster. On the other hand, north of the border the SNP are in government and have also suffered severe problems in 2023. Therefore such is the strength of the Tory base here that they may well be able to hold on yet again, as they did even in 2015 when the Nationalists were at their peak. None of the three local government districts within this seat voted for independence in 2014 and the overall ‘yes’ figure for the constituency would only have been between 35 and 40%. The most likely outcome in a general election in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in, say, 2024, is that it will be the Conservatives who will yet again be the winners, regardless of their fate in the general election as a whole.
This situation is unlikely to be significantly affected by the imminent boundary changes, which are only minor. They clean up some of the split ward boundaries, such as the whole of Nith ward south of Dumfries will now be in Dumfries & Galloway. On the other hand a number of split wards remain: Tweeddale East, Mid & Upper Nithsdale, Lochar and Clydesdale South. It is a matter of around three thousand voters being moved into this seat and three thousand out.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.1% 84/650
Owner-occupied 65.6% 365/650
Private rented 12.5% 422/650
Social rented 19.2% 242/650
White 99.0% 11/650
Black 0.1% 596/650
Asian 0.6% 619/650
Managerial & professional 28.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.4%
Employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing 8.0% 6/650
Degree level 24.8% 351/650
No qualifications 30.9% 75/650
Students 5.0% 637/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
2019 General election: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Mundell 22,611 46.0 −3.4
SNP Amanda Burgauer 18,830 38.3 +8.2
Labour Nick Chisholm 4,172 8.5 −8.0
Liberal Democrats John Ferry 3,540 7.2 +3.2
C Majority 3,781 7.7 −11.6
2019 electorate 68,330
Turnout 49,153 71.9 −0.5
Conservative hold
Swing 5.8 C to SNP
Boundary Changes
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale will consist of
95.8% of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
4.6& of Lanark & Hamilton East
1.8% of Dumfries & Galloway
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/dumfriesshire_clydesdale_and_tweeddale_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
On the other hand, this seat actually could be said to have stemmed from three differing political traditions. Certainly, Dumfriessshire had usually been a Conservative fiefdom, with only Russell Brown of Labour (winning in 1997 and 2001) breaking a tradition of Conservative and National Liberal success dating back to 1931 – and that seat, entitled Dumfries from 1950 to 2005, included the substantial town of that name and not just the outlying county. Dumfries is now located in a division partnered with Galloway. However Clydesdale is in essence in South Lanarkshire, and as a seat just of that name had been won by Labour from 1983 to 2005. Previously the Lanark constituency had also been ‘red team’ since 1959. Finally, Tweeddale had been included with Ettrick and Lauderdale in one of the Liberal Democrats’ ‘borders’ seats. Indeed, its MP had for three elections between 1983 and 1992 been the party and former Liberal leader, David Steel. Therefore ironically the only party that has never triumphed in the varying sections of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is the generally dominant SNP.
This is not in the main a ‘Borders’ constituency, though it does share its boundary with England between the end of the Solway Firth and a point between Caulside and Penton. It is better seen as a large ‘South of Scotland’ seat. It is predominantly rural (with not quite such a high proportion employed in agriculture as its neighbour Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, but still in the top ten seats in the UK on that count), sweeping across the hills indented by river valleys. It also encompasses several small towns, most of which are reasonably prosperous and comfortable residential units, which a lower proportion of social rented housing than usual north of the border. Biggar (population around 2,650) is the example in South Lanarkshire / Clydesdale. The Tweeddale section includes Innerleithen (all of 3,200) and Peebles – indeed the Tweeddale District that existed between 1975 and 1996 was identical to the historic county of Peeblesshire. Peebles itself is home to around 9,000 residents which makes it one of the two largest towns in this seat. Though formerly known for its woollen mills, Peebles was also a hydropathic spa town and boasts some fine examples of hotels in the Scottish baronial style, one of which, Cringletie, has been known to provide a base for the southern Scottish Almanac research.
www.cringletie.com/
Moving in to the largest sub-unit in the seat, Dumfriessshire, there are also historic connections. Moffat (2,500) just off the A74M in Annandale was also a spa town. Further down the river, Annan itself, like Peebles housing around 9,000, was where Thomas Carlyle went to school, being born in the nearby village of Ecclefechan. Langholm is in the valley of the Esk, beween Canonbie and Eskdalemuir. Lochmaben and Lockerbie (site of the 1988 disaster) lie to the west towards Dumfries. One rather different area, north of Dumfries, is mid and upper Nithsdale, with the small town of Sanquhar, which has an industrial past, not only in textiles, but even coal mining, similar to the remote coalfield area of south Ayrshire just across the county boundary.
www.scottish-places.info/towns/townfirst360.html
Finally, perhaps internationally the best known place in the seat, but far from the largest or most typical, is Gretna, at the western end of this constituency’s border with England.
As with the previous parliamentary locations of the parts of the seat, it covers three council areas. From South Lanarkshire we find most of Clydesdale East ward and part of Clydesdale South. The former, around Biggar, gave the Conservatives 40% of its first preferences in the most recent elections in May 2022, to 33.5% for the SNP and 16.4% for Labour - the only place in the whole of the South Lanarkshire district where the Tories came first. The minority of Clydesdale South which is in this seat is centred on Douglas. The SNP came first, Labour second, and the Conservatives left back in third.
Similarly, in the Scottish Borders authority, the ‘Peeblesshire’ part of the constituency covers the whole of Tweeddale West ward (most of Peebles town) and the western half of Tweeddale East, (Innerleithen). In the former in May 2022 the two Conservative candidates polled the most first preferences between them, 28.2%, but this was only just ahead of the SNP (26.2%) and Liberal Democrats (22.8%). In Tweeddale East the SNP were first, Tories second, and Lib Dems not as strong. A word of warning should be entered against extrapolating from local election results, as especially in the rural wards composing Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale personal votes, local factors, and independent candidatures hold weight.
In the third local authority within the division, Dumfries and Galloway, the Conservatives were dominant in Annandale East & Eskdale (Gretna, Langholm), with more than twice as many first preferences in 2022 as any other party, Labour being second and the SNP a very weak third. The Tories were also well ahead in Annandale North (Moffat, Lockerbie, Lochmaben) though the SNP were, at least, second here. The same order of parties pertained in Annandale South (Annan), but both Labour and the Liberal Democrats also achieved a respectable level of support. Finally, in the more anomalous Mid and Upper Nithsdale the SNP shared the honours with an Independent; back in the days of the Nithsdale district (1975-96), Labour did well in many parts of the valley.
Indeed, when Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale was first created, Labour were actually the main challengers to David Mundell and the Tories. Not only did they only lose by 1,738 in the new seat in the 2005 general election, but they finished second again even as Labour were losing their grip on power at Westminster in 2010. By 2019, though, their share had dropped from 32% and 29% in those two contests to a mere 8.5%.
In fact, it is arguable that the ‘unionist’ vote has been so squeezed by the Conservatives that there is a real chance that at some point the SNP may finally register their first ever victory in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale – due to the problems amassed by the Conservative government, or governments, down in Westminster. On the other hand, north of the border the SNP are in government and have also suffered severe problems in 2023. Therefore such is the strength of the Tory base here that they may well be able to hold on yet again, as they did even in 2015 when the Nationalists were at their peak. None of the three local government districts within this seat voted for independence in 2014 and the overall ‘yes’ figure for the constituency would only have been between 35 and 40%. The most likely outcome in a general election in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in, say, 2024, is that it will be the Conservatives who will yet again be the winners, regardless of their fate in the general election as a whole.
This situation is unlikely to be significantly affected by the imminent boundary changes, which are only minor. They clean up some of the split ward boundaries, such as the whole of Nith ward south of Dumfries will now be in Dumfries & Galloway. On the other hand a number of split wards remain: Tweeddale East, Mid & Upper Nithsdale, Lochar and Clydesdale South. It is a matter of around three thousand voters being moved into this seat and three thousand out.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.1% 84/650
Owner-occupied 65.6% 365/650
Private rented 12.5% 422/650
Social rented 19.2% 242/650
White 99.0% 11/650
Black 0.1% 596/650
Asian 0.6% 619/650
Managerial & professional 28.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.4%
Employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing 8.0% 6/650
Degree level 24.8% 351/650
No qualifications 30.9% 75/650
Students 5.0% 637/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
2019 General election: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Mundell 22,611 46.0 −3.4
SNP Amanda Burgauer 18,830 38.3 +8.2
Labour Nick Chisholm 4,172 8.5 −8.0
Liberal Democrats John Ferry 3,540 7.2 +3.2
C Majority 3,781 7.7 −11.6
2019 electorate 68,330
Turnout 49,153 71.9 −0.5
Conservative hold
Swing 5.8 C to SNP
Boundary Changes
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale will consist of
95.8% of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
4.6& of Lanark & Hamilton East
1.8% of Dumfries & Galloway
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/dumfriesshire_clydesdale_and_tweeddale_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 23649 | 46.5% |
| SNP | 19311 | 37.9% |
| Lab | 4223 | 8.3% |
| LD | 3713 | 7.3% |
| | ||
| Majority | 4338 | 8.5% |
