2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum

[neilm]

Marcia Langton is perhaps not the person you want helping to front up your campaign.

[uthacalthing]

The progressive left have made the classic racist right error of thinking that the Indigenous nations are basically all the one people

[jamie]

Redbridge has Yes down all the way to 39% in a forced choice question. It just keeps getting worse for them. That said, Redbridge is not one of the better Aussie pollsters (they have a major house effect in favour of the ‘populist right’).

[timrollpickering]

They may not be one of the best but the poll is very much in line with the ongoing trend:

[Deleted]

Sept 8, 2023 18:19:14 GMT uthacalthing said:

Sept 6, 2023 21:25:15 GMT @europeanlefty said:

No I genuinely would. I am unaware of any polling or any cultural factors that would suggest those social and political views were disproportionately common amongst indigenous Australians, I was wondering if you had more insight 

On reflection I do have more insight. 100,000 years of human history across all races and cultures, 10,000 of which we might call civilisation show a consistent default setting of oppression of women, homophobia and confidence in the benefits of corporal punishment.  Across 95% of current humanity it still does. The Ingenious peoples of Australia consisted of hundreds of distinct nations. If the reality was that these hundreds of nations had diverged from the general pattern of human society by being progressive, egalitarian, inclusive and tolerant until the arrival of Abel Tasman and James Cook and their accursed reactionary ways, I am pretty sure somebody would have drawn attention to this fact. 

And if you are going to try to troll somebody, best not try it with me. 

Though as any anthropologist or archaeologist will tell you this isn't actually true, certainly not as a "default setting". But thank you for revealing your true attitude to indigenous cultures

[Deleted]

Strait Islanders vote? Sounds a bit homophobic to me.

[The Bishop]

This really is starting to look as bad as our 2011 AV referendum effort - and could have a similar result too.

[jamie]

Sept 9, 2023 9:17:28 GMT The Bishop said:

This really is starting to look as bad as our 2011 AV referendum effort - and could have a similar result too.

Were the Yes to AV campaign completely in denial about the trends? The pro-Voice campaign, in public and it seems in private, genuinely believe that the polls are wrong and that the Voice is both on course to pass and support is moving in their direction. 

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 9, 2023 7:41:02 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Sept 8, 2023 18:19:14 GMT uthacalthing said:

On reflection I do have more insight. 100,000 years of human history across all races and cultures, 10,000 of which we might call civilisation show a consistent default setting of oppression of women, homophobia and confidence in the benefits of corporal punishment.  Across 95% of current humanity it still does. The Ingenious peoples of Australia consisted of hundreds of distinct nations. If the reality was that these hundreds of nations had diverged from the general pattern of human society by being progressive, egalitarian, inclusive and tolerant until the arrival of Abel Tasman and James Cook and their accursed reactionary ways, I am pretty sure somebody would have drawn attention to this fact. 

And if you are going to try to troll somebody, best not try it with me. 

Though as any anthropologist or archaeologist will tell you this isn't actually true, certainly not as a "default setting". But thank you for revealing your true attitude to indigenous cultures

"100,000 years of human history" & "Australia consisted of hundreds of distinct nations" is incorrect, but the rest is correct.

[jamie]

Freshwater:
Yes - 41%
No - 59%

[ntyuk1707]

RedBridge poll, 30 August - 4 September (changes with 21-27 July):

NO: 61% (+5)
YES: 39% (-5)


Essential poll, 30 August - 3 September (changes with 2-5 August):

NO: 48% (+1)
YES: 43% (-1)

[jamie]

Still a bit too aimed at the politically engaged, but if the Yes campaign were more focused on uplifting messages like this then the referendum would be a lot closer. The advent itself has gained a lot of positive attention due to the use of ‘You're the Voice’ which is one the most popular songs in Australian history.

[jamie]

Polling average from Kevin Bonham (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com )

Victoria 45.7 (+3.4)
Tasmania 44.6 (+2.3)
New South Wales 42.9 (+0.6)
National 42.3
South Australia 42.1 (-0.2)
Western Australia 40.3 (-2.0)
Queensland 37.0 (-5.3)

Smaller the state, bigger the caveat. Brackets are deviation from the national figure. 

[uthacalthing]

If accurate those figures are damning. The states with the highest Indigenous population and therefore with the highest likelihood that the non-indigenous population have Indigenous friends, colleagues, and neighbors are more strongly opposed than average.

Unless of course, the reality is that those non-indigenous populations that actually have Indigenous colleagues and neighbors (but perhaps not friends) are more likely to be racist against them

Obviously, NT figures would be of interest. And figures that are expressly for those with Indigenous heritage would be of particular interest. And the figures for those who are of non-indigenous but also non-British Isles heritage

[ntyuk1707]

Worth noting that many indigenous elders have expressed opposition to the Voice proposal, as have the Circular Head Aboriginal Community and the Tasmania Aboriginal Centre of Tasmania.

It has been widely reported in the media that there is a high level of apathy about the proposals amongst indigenous Australian communities about the voice, in addition to outright opposition.

Whether true or false, claims about the Voice being made up of an "activist class" do seem to be cutting through.

[jamie]

Sept 10, 2023 15:43:49 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Worth noting that many indigenous elders have expressed opposition to the Voice proposal, as have the Circular Head Aboriginal Community and the Tasmania Aboriginal Centre of Tasmania.

It has been widely reported in the media that there is a high level of apathy about the proposals amongst indigenous Australian communities about the voice, in addition to outright opposition.

Whether true or false, claims about the Voice being made up of an "activist class" do seem to be cutting through.

Frankly, that’s true among the population at large. Beyond the poor Yes campaign, the main reason there’s been such a shift in the polling is that most Australians did not, and to a large extent still do not, have a strong view on the Voice. Its not an issue that directly affects them, they don’t understand all the detail, and they have more important things to think about given the state of the economy etc. 

FWIW, indigenous opposition to the Voice is probably being exaggerated by the media. Opponents of the Voice are very happy for indigenous opponents to lead media coverage as it shows they are not racist and counters the argument that you have to vote Yes because indigenous people asked for the Voice. On the other side, the largely pro-Voice mainstream media, when trying to present both sides, prefer the ‘politically correct’ opponents, especially if they’re presenting Blak sovereignty arguments. Certainly, if looked at the ABC’s coverage of Voice opposition among the public (“community” in Australian lingo), you would think that far more than 1-2% of No voters are indigenous. 

[johnloony]

Sept 10, 2023 15:59:32 GMT jamie said:

Sept 10, 2023 15:43:49 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Worth noting that many indigenous elders have expressed opposition to the Voice proposal, as have the Circular Head Aboriginal Community and the Tasmania Aboriginal Centre of Tasmania.

It has been widely reported in the media that there is a high level of apathy about the proposals amongst indigenous Australian communities about the voice, in addition to outright opposition.

Whether true or false, claims about the Voice being made up of an "activist class" do seem to be cutting through.

Frankly, that’s true among the population at large. Beyond the poor Yes campaign, the main reason there’s been such a shift in the polling is that most Australians did not, and to a large extent still do not, have a strong view on the Voice. Its not an issue that directly affects them, they don’t understand all the detail, and they have more important things to think about given the state of the economy etc. 

FWIW, indigenous opposition to the Voice is probably being exaggerated by the media. Opponents of the Voice are very happy for indigenous opponents to lead media coverage as it shows they are not racist and counters the argument that you have to vote Yes because indigenous people asked for the Voice. On the other side, the largely pro-Voice mainstream media, when trying to present both sides, prefer the ‘politically correct’ opponents, especially if they’re presenting Blak sovereignty arguments. Certainly, if looked at the ABC’s coverage of Voice opposition among the public (“community” in Australian lingo), you would think that far more than 1-2% of No voters are indigenous. 

The elephant in the room of the Yes campaign is that there is no detail. It’s just a couple of sentences of waffly aspiration, with no specific details at all.

[Deleted]

Sept 10, 2023 17:02:33 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 10, 2023 15:59:32 GMT jamie said:

Frankly, that’s true among the population at large. Beyond the poor Yes campaign, the main reason there’s been such a shift in the polling is that most Australians did not, and to a large extent still do not, have a strong view on the Voice. Its not an issue that directly affects them, they don’t understand all the detail, and they have more important things to think about given the state of the economy etc. 

FWIW, indigenous opposition to the Voice is probably being exaggerated by the media. Opponents of the Voice are very happy for indigenous opponents to lead media coverage as it shows they are not racist and counters the argument that you have to vote Yes because indigenous people asked for the Voice. On the other side, the largely pro-Voice mainstream media, when trying to present both sides, prefer the ‘politically correct’ opponents, especially if they’re presenting Blak sovereignty arguments. Certainly, if looked at the ABC’s coverage of Voice opposition among the public (“community” in Australian lingo), you would think that far more than 1-2% of No voters are indigenous. 

The elephant in the room of the Yes campaign is that there is no detail. It’s just a couple of sentences of waffly aspiration, with no specific details at all.

That did not keep Vote Leave from winning in 2016.

[iain]

Sept 10, 2023 15:21:08 GMT uthacalthing said:

If accurate those figures are damning. The states with the highest Indigenous population and therefore with the highest likelihood that the non-indigenous population have Indigenous friends, colleagues, and neighbors are more strongly opposed than average.

Unless of course, the reality is that those non-indigenous populations that actually have Indigenous colleagues and neighbors (but perhaps not friends) are more likely to be racist against them

Obviously, NT figures would be of interest. And figures that are expressly for those with Indigenous heritage would be of particular interest. And the figures for those who are of non-indigenous but also non-British Isles heritage

This betrays a profound ignorance of the situation.

Western Australia having a (relatively) high Indigenous population doesn’t mean that loads of people in Perth have an Aboriginal neighbour. The Indigenous population is concentrated in extremely remote communities.

[carlton43]

Sept 10, 2023 17:02:33 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 10, 2023 15:59:32 GMT jamie said:

Frankly, that’s true among the population at large. Beyond the poor Yes campaign, the main reason there’s been such a shift in the polling is that most Australians did not, and to a large extent still do not, have a strong view on the Voice. Its not an issue that directly affects them, they don’t understand all the detail, and they have more important things to think about given the state of the economy etc. 

FWIW, indigenous opposition to the Voice is probably being exaggerated by the media. Opponents of the Voice are very happy for indigenous opponents to lead media coverage as it shows they are not racist and counters the argument that you have to vote Yes because indigenous people asked for the Voice. On the other side, the largely pro-Voice mainstream media, when trying to present both sides, prefer the ‘politically correct’ opponents, especially if they’re presenting Blak sovereignty arguments. Certainly, if looked at the ABC’s coverage of Voice opposition among the public (“community” in Australian lingo), you would think that far more than 1-2% of No voters are indigenous. 

The elephant in the room of the Yes campaign is that there is no detail. It’s just a couple of sentences of waffly aspiration, with no specific details at all.

And another reason to dislike it is that it is a deeply undemocratic, uber-woke and rather racist idea that really stinks.