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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 11:01:29 GMT
Just as well that Pimpernal admits to being a natural pessimist  Labour in second will be pleasing for them also. Its something of a reverse from the Kent CC byelection in this area in May, when the Tories got lucky. Not so much this time. Yes but then Pimps admitted (1) that he thought the Swind had done quite well on postal votes, and (2( that he thought there were significantly more PVs than votes on the day. I guess that was decisive? According to the info on Facebook, turnout from postal voters was 61% and turnout of the remaining electors on the day was 9%. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 15, 2023 11:08:55 GMT
No it doesn’t, so they must have fixed it |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 15, 2023 11:13:36 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +97
LDm +42
Grn +0
Con -116
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 15, 2023 11:24:14 GMT
Yes but then Pimps admitted (1) that he thought the Swind had done quite well on postal votes, and (2( that he thought there were significantly more PVs than votes on the day. I guess that was decisive? According to the info on Facebook, turnout from postal voters was 61% and turnout of the remaining electors on the day was 9%. Just imagine those two big party machines throwing everything into GOTV and as Pimp said , outgunning the indies, but to very little effect. Of course those percentage turnout figures rather exaggerates the effect as there are a lot fewer postal votes anyway, but it does probably confirm there were more PVs than day votes in absolute numbers. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 15, 2023 11:25:52 GMT
Just as well that Pimpernal admits to being a natural pessimist (my underscore) Labour in second will be pleasing for them also. Its something of a reverse from the Kent CC byelection in this area in May, when the Tories got lucky. Not so much this time.Bar Barcharts are reputed to help with that. |
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 15, 2023 11:28:03 GMT
From Facebook Swale, Minster Cliffs Swale Ind 395 Lab 339 Con 331 LD 39 Turnout 18% I can't deny being disappointed with this result as a lot of work was put in by the Conservatives with really useful mutual aid from the mainland too. However, we faced two major challenges (apart from the national political situation) which were a concern for us from the beginning. Ken Ingleton really was Mr Minster - he'd been a larger than life Minster through and through respresentative for decades. His loss was a real blow to us. And the Swale Independent candidate, Peter McDonald, a former Conservative councillor and almost as well-liked as Ken Ingleton, was a very strong candidate as Peter too has Minster written all the way through him and has been seen to put Minster first for decades. Still disappointed to have lost this contest. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 12:05:29 GMT
Numbers below updated following this weeks contests.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 14th September , there have now been 56 ordinary by elections since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 16- Held 4 and lost 12: 3 to the Greens, 4 to the Lib Dem’s, 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 25%) and have gained 4.
Labour have defended 25- Held 17 and lost 8: 3 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 1 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 68%) and have gained 6
Lib Dem’s have defended 6: Held 5 and lost 1 to the Greens ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 6
Greens have defended 4: Held 2 and lost 2. 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to an Independent( retention rate 50%) and have gained 5
Independents have defended 1. Held 1. And have gained 5
Residents have defended 1, held 1
SNP have defended 2. Lost 2- both to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1
Overall net changes
Con -8
Lab -2
LD +5
Green +3
Ind + 5
SNP -2
Vectis -1
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 15, 2023 13:00:10 GMT
Yes but then Pimps admitted (1) that he thought the Swind had done quite well on postal votes, and (2( that he thought there were significantly more PVs than votes on the day. I guess that was decisive? According to the info on Facebook, turnout from postal voters was 61% and turnout of the remaining electors on the day was 9%. Tory candidate's best-Trump impression; "The election was rigged! I went to bed last night confident that I'd won. Everybody was congratulating me, then all of a sudden these hundreds of fake votes are transported in from nowhere! Sad! i will be organising a rally to protest this on 6 January outside the mayor's office! Be there, it will be wild!" |
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Post by batman on Sept 15, 2023 13:03:51 GMT
This is a distinctly better performance from Labour than I expected, especially with the party in partial control of the local council now. Sittingbourne & Sheppey as a constituency can be very volatile at times & if I were the Tories I'd be starting to get pretty worried now as this is definitely not Labour's best area in the district. Congratulations though to the Swale Independents on their victory.
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 17, 2023 15:47:31 GMT
This is a distinctly better performance from Labour than I expected, especially with the party in partial control of the local council now. Sittingbourne & Sheppey as a constituency can be very volatile at times & if I were the Tories I'd be starting to get pretty worried now as this is definitely not Labour's best area in the district. Congratulations though to the Swale Independents on their victory. Minster Cliffs is and will continue to be, at national level, a Conservative inclined ward. But it has a quite repetitive history of electing former Conservative Councillors who’ve left the party, such as Peter MacDonald. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 17, 2023 17:05:39 GMT
This is a distinctly better performance from Labour than I expected, especially with the party in partial control of the local council now. Sittingbourne & Sheppey as a constituency can be very volatile at times & if I were the Tories I'd be starting to get pretty worried now as this is definitely not Labour's best area in the district. Congratulations though to the Swale Independents on their victory. Minster Cliffs is and will continue to be, at national level, a Conservative inclined ward. But it has a quite repetitive history of electing former Conservative Councillors who’ve left the party, such as Peter MacDonald. An interesting phenomena to note. Is this down to a fractious local association, the safeness or otherwise of the seat or other things? (And i don't mean just here). |
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 17, 2023 22:46:52 GMT
Minster Cliffs is and will continue to be, at national level, a Conservative inclined ward. But it has a quite repetitive history of electing former Conservative Councillors who’ve left the party, such as Peter MacDonald. An interesting phenomena to note. Is this down to a fractious local association, the safeness or otherwise of the seat or other things? (And i don't mean just here). My take on it is that residents of the Island are, if you’ll pardon the pun, more insular than average, and more independently minded. They also seem to have a greater propensity than average at local (and perhaps national?) level to vote for people rather than for parties. Minster Cliffs is by some way the most prosperous of the Island wards, in this case (not so much elsewhere, I know!) not unconnected with its political Conservatism in General Elections. |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on Sept 22, 2023 7:11:28 GMT
This is a distinctly better performance from Labour than I expected, especially with the party in partial control of the local council now. Sittingbourne & Sheppey as a constituency can be very volatile at times & if I were the Tories I'd be starting to get pretty worried now as this is definitely not Labour's best area in the district. Congratulations though to the Swale Independents on their victory. Minster Cliffs is and will continue to be, at national level, a Conservative inclined ward. But it has a quite repetitive history of electing former Conservative Councillors who’ve left the party, such as Peter MacDonald. And of course former Labour candidates such as Tom Nundy Minster Parish Council is also very relevant - I think there have been as many as 5 Borough Councillors on there at times. Certaily there are at least 4 at the moment - though for the first time in decades no Conservative Borough Councillor. |
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 27, 2023 18:09:43 GMT
Minster Cliffs is and will continue to be, at national level, a Conservative inclined ward. But it has a quite repetitive history of electing former Conservative Councillors who’ve left the party, such as Peter MacDonald. An interesting phenomena to note. Is this down to a fractious local association, the safeness or otherwise of the seat or other things? (And i don't mean just here). And I wouldn't say a "fractious local association", more an otherwise unconnected series of fractious ex-members of the local association. |
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