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Post by phil156 on Sept 14, 2023 23:41:12 GMT
Lab 48% LD 36.4% Con 8% TUSC 4% Reform 3.5% What was the difference to last time 2021 must be in double digits for the LD |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 14, 2023 23:50:03 GMT
Report that Labour have gained Chorley Rural West (the Lancashire CC by-election) from the Conservatives.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 14, 2023 23:57:04 GMT
20.3% turnout in Liverpool For a safe Labour seat in north Liverpool that's a very impressive turnout in a by-election. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 14, 2023 23:57:07 GMT
Report that Labour have gained Chorley Rural West (the Lancashire CC by-election) from the Conservatives. |
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 14, 2023 23:59:32 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2023 4:32:07 GMT
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Sept 15, 2023 6:26:35 GMT
As of 4 yesterday afternoon - regarding Swale, I think the Tories have held their seat.
Early on I was impressed by the Labour machine, but as the day progressed, it didn't seem to be having as much traction as I'd thought.
Quite simply the Swale Indies were out gunned by huge party machines in this election, though we may have done well in the postals.
On the day turnout may have been c400 unlss there was a massive evening rush. Maybe 5-600 Postals
Whoever wins, it is a huge result for them!
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 6:34:56 GMT
Changes in vote share from the last contest in each ward
Lincolnshire ( from 2021)
Lab -11.6%
LD + 32.7
Con -16.4
TUSC +2.3
REF UK new
( no Green or Lib drom before)
Lancashire ( from 2021)
Lab +11.1
Con -7.9
LD +2
( no Green from before)
Barking and Dagenham ( from 2022)
Lab -22.9
Con +2.7
Green and LD new
Chorley ( from 2023)
Con -3.6
Lab +3
LD +6.3
No Green from before
Liverpool ( from 2023)
Lab -26.8
C Ind -2.1
LD, Ind and Con all new
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 15, 2023 6:55:45 GMT
LINCOLNSHIRE Lab 896 LD 680 Con 150 TUSC 74 Ref 66 That was a big swing to the LD They all came out for Dick Taverne! I wish I had really understood about where this ward was, which I did only after I saw the piece from Andrew ( hadn't had the time to do my own research this week and boy how that shows!) I knew it was in Lincoln, but now realise it was the bit of Lincoln I once knew quite well- almost Lincoln Central one might say. I think if I had known where we were I might have thought a big swing to the Lib Dems quite likely- indeed I might have overegged it and gone for the win after chickening out last week. Oh and is everybody carefully not commenting on the somehat surprising Tory candidate here? |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 15, 2023 8:02:18 GMT
Oh and is everybody carefully not commenting on the somehat surprising Tory candidate here? He's stood in Lincoln elections before and has helped with campaigns. Carholme is a young, studenty division and I don't expect they ecpected to win but he would add to the gaiety of the nation if elected. |
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Post by batman on Sept 15, 2023 8:37:42 GMT
It feels like we haven't had a very good week, and yet we have defended all of our seats, 2 of them with reasonable comfort, and gained a seat too. In Chorley we have done better than in May this year, elsewhere it's been a different picture. Lincolnshire is a rare example of a big anti-Labour swing in a council controlled by the Tories, although of course the city council is a different matter. Very mixed for the Tories, they've done very well in Barking & Dagenham and not badly at all in the Chorley council by-election (I guess only in relative terms though - there was still a fair-sized swing from the May result this year), but 12 votes in Liverpool is pretty embarrassing even by Liverpool standards and they did poorly in Lincoln too. Similarly, some very good LD performances, but they still ended up without winning any of the seats.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 8:59:54 GMT
It feels like we haven't had a very good week, and yet we have defended all of our seats, 2 of them with reasonable comfort, and gained a seat too. In Chorley we have done better than in May this year, elsewhere it's been a different picture. Lincolnshire is a rare example of a big anti-Labour swing in a council controlled by the Tories, although of course the city council is a different matter. Very mixed for the Tories, they've done very well in Barking & Dagenham and not badly at all in the Chorley council by-election (I guess only in relative terms though - there was still a fair-sized swing from the May result this year), but 12 votes in Liverpool is pretty embarrassing even by Liverpool standards and they did poorly in Lincoln too. Similarly, some very good LD performances, but they still ended up without winning any of the seats. That’s the second Barking and Dagenham election where the Tories have done ok as I recall. Its certainly better than a lot of other results for them. Maybe more evidence of ULEZ? Re Chorley, that is perhaps more evidence that the party in control of a council doesnt frequently gain an opposition seat on a council. The county division appears slightly better territory as a whole for Labour than that ward but Labour gained the seat on the Conservative controlled CC but not the one on the Labour controlled DC. Another factor in the difference I think is that the Labour CC candidate Alan Whittaker first contested that division in 1989 and was the county councillor from 1997-2009 and has a personal vote. |
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Post by southernliberal on Sept 15, 2023 9:07:44 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 15, 2023 9:15:50 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 15, 2023 9:50:16 GMT
Yes it's the wrong way round. My figures are taken directly from the RO's sheet and match the size of the piles. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2023 10:22:30 GMT
It feels like we haven't had a very good week, and yet we have defended all of our seats, 2 of them with reasonable comfort, and gained a seat too. In Chorley we have done better than in May this year, elsewhere it's been a different picture. Lincolnshire is a rare example of a big anti-Labour swing in a council controlled by the Tories, although of course the city council is a different matter. Very mixed for the Tories, they've done very well in Barking & Dagenham and not badly at all in the Chorley council by-election (I guess only in relative terms though - there was still a fair-sized swing from the May result this year), but 12 votes in Liverpool is pretty embarrassing even by Liverpool standards and they did poorly in Lincoln too. Similarly, some very good LD performances, but they still ended up without winning any of the seats. Tory candidate in Liverpool is one of their highest profile figures there too. As for our own results, we all know Liverpool's long standing problems and in Lincoln the LibDems - with not untypical opportunism - seem to have tried their utmost to make it a referendum on the unpopular Labour controlled city council when the election was for the CC which has a massive Tory majority. Barking/Dagenham is the only one I would genuinely say is below expectations, and the turnout was very low there. I wouldn't call a further significant swing away from the Tories since their dreadful 2023 results in Chorley particularly good for them either. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 10:29:19 GMT
From Facebook
Swale, Minster Cliffs
Swale Ind 395
Lab 339
Con 331
LD 39
Turnout 18%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2023 10:33:17 GMT
Just as well that Pimpernal admits to being a natural pessimist  Labour in second will be pleasing for them also. Its something of a reverse from the Kent CC byelection in this area in May, when the Tories got lucky. Not so much this time. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 10:39:54 GMT
If you treat the Swale Indy and the other Indy as a team in May, then the % and changes in Swale are
SInd 35.8% (+1.1)
Lab 30.7% (+9.7)
Con 30% (+0.3)
LD 3.5% ( from nowhere)
No Green from before
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 15, 2023 10:58:32 GMT
Just as well that Pimpernal admits to being a natural pessimist Labour in second will be pleasing for them also. Its something of a reverse from the Kent CC byelection in this area in May, when the Tories got lucky. Not so much this time. Yes but then Pimps admitted (1) that he thought the Swind had done quite well on postal votes, and (2( that he thought there were significantly more PVs than votes on the day. I guess that was decisive? |
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