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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 18:03:03 GMT
Incumbent- David Lloyd, Conservative.
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Post by carolus on Aug 15, 2023 20:53:39 GMT
2021: Con - 155,144 (48.5%) LD - 87,524 (27.4%) Lab - 76,941 (24.1%)
Second Round: Con - 167,905 (55.3%) LD - 135,696 (44.7%)
In 2016 Con won by 12.5% over Lab in the first round and 27.5% in the second. In 2012 Con won by 16.9% over Lab in the first round and 21.0% in the second.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 2, 2024 12:02:05 GMT
Conservative incumbent David Lloyd is retiring
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Post by carolus on Feb 10, 2024 18:30:47 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 16, 2024 12:38:35 GMT
I note the Conservative candidate is Jonathan Ash Edwards who was previously Leader of Mid Sussex District Council.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 8, 2024 9:35:48 GMT
ASH-EDWARDS, Jonathan Conservative Candidate - More Police, Safer Streets FISHER, Matt Green Party PLATER, Tom Labour and Co-operative Party PRENDERGAST, Sea Liberal Democrats
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Post by listener on Apr 22, 2024 22:51:31 GMT
HERTFORDSHIRE RESULT 2021
2021 PARO – Broxbourne
Overall result (First Stage) (total valid ballots 319,579)
Conservatives ahead in all districts, except St. Albans and Watford (Lib Dem)
Con 155,114 – 48.5% Lib Dem 87,524 – 27.4% Lab 76,941 – 24.1%
[Transposition error of 30 in the analysis of the Conservative vote]
Broxbourne (total valid ballots 20,983)
Con 13,509 – 64.4% Lib Dem 2,197 – 10.5% Lab 5,277 – 25.1%
Dacorum (total valid ballots 39,341)
Con 19,647 – 49.9% Lib Dem 11,755 – 29.9% Lab 7,939 – 20.2%
East Hertfordshire (total valid ballots 38,886)
Con 19,973 – 51.4% Lib Dem 9,014 – 23.2% Lab 9,899 – 25.5%
Hertsmere (total valid ballots 28,025)
Con 15,911 – 56.8% Lib Dem 4,946 – 17.6% Lab 7,168 – 25.6%
North Hertfordshire (total valid ballots 41,241)
Con 19,666 – 47.7% Lib Dem 10,530 – 25.5% Lab 11,045 – 26.8%
St. Albans (total valid ballots 48,788)
Con 19,909 – 40.8% Lib Dem 21,709 – 44.5% Lab 7,170 – 14.7%
Stevenage (total valid ballots 22,592)
Con 10,439 – 46.2% Lib Dem 3,591 – 15.9% Lab 8,562 – 37.9%
Three Rivers (total valid ballots 26,148)
Con 12,995 – 49.7% Lib Dem 8,577 – 32.8% Lab 4,576 – 17.5%
Watford (total valid ballots 24,946)
Con 8,261 – 33.1% Lib Dem 8,838– 35.4% Lab 7,847 – 31.5%
Welwyn Hatfield (total valid ballots 28,629)
Con 14,804 – 51.7% Lib Dem 6,367 – 22.2% Lab 7,458 – 26.1%
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Post by pendraig on May 1, 2024 11:03:47 GMT
Beginning to wonder if this and other home counties PCC races are going to be a lot closer than many of us have predicted. For the record my own prediction about a month ago was a Conservative win for Jonathan Ash-Edwards with a margin of around 10%.
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Post by mattb on May 1, 2024 18:46:37 GMT
The change to FPTP will help the Tories hold on in lots of places.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 1, 2024 18:58:14 GMT
The change to FPTP will help the Tories hold on in lots of places. not sure if that's true in Herts though
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 20:26:11 GMT
The change to FPTP will help the Tories hold on in lots of places. not sure if that's true in Herts though Absolutely it is true in Herts. Look how evenly the opposition was split last time. If the Lib Dems retain second place this time there's a good chance they could have won on Labour second preferences. There's a slim chance of either them or Labour winning on first preferences
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Post by mattbewilson on May 1, 2024 20:50:02 GMT
not sure if that's true in Herts though Absolutely it is true in Herts. Look how evenly the opposition was split last time. If the Lib Dems retain second place this time there's a good chance they could have won on Labour second preferences. There's a slim chance of either them or Labour winning on first preferences that's assuming that Labours second preferences put the Lib Dems over the line. Last time something like 48k went to the Lib Dems and 28k either went Tory or didnt preference. How many of that 48k would stick with labour rather than just go to the Lib Dems on 1st preference? of the 28k that didn't vote Lib Dem 2nd preference, 12k went Tory. How many labour voters who decided the Tories was their preferred second option would vote Lib Dem? The rest which is something like 15k decided they'd rather not vote Lib Dem second preference to get rid of the Tories would change their mind?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 21:16:54 GMT
Absolutely it is true in Herts. Look how evenly the opposition was split last time. If the Lib Dems retain second place this time there's a good chance they could have won on Labour second preferences. There's a slim chance of either them or Labour winning on first preferences that's assuming that Labours second preferences put the Lib Dems over the line. Last time something like 48k went to the Lib Dems and 28k either went Tory or didnt preference. How many of that 48k would stick with labour rather than just go to the Lib Dems on 1st preference? of the 28k that didn't vote Lib Dem 2nd preference, 12k went Tory. How many labour voters who decided the Tories was their preferred second option would vote Lib Dem? The rest which is something like 15k decided they'd rather not vote Lib Dem second preference to get rid of the Tories would change their mind? Well the Conservatives were over 20% of the Lib Dems on first preferences in 2021 and less than 10% ahead after transfers. So if the Conservatives were ahead by 5% on first prefs, or even 10% then its quite possible that Labour second prefs would put them over the line. Except they won't, beacuse there are no second preferences. So it seems hard to argue that the absence of preference voting isn't likely to help the Conservatives in places like this - which is not to say they couldn't still lose - but it makes it much less likely (and given how close it was between second and third last time, I think the Lib Dems have a hard time selling the 'only we can beat the Tories here' line in eg Stevenage..)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 2, 2024 9:45:41 GMT
I think there is a very good chance of an unexpected Labour victory in at least one PCC area, but it's not going to happen anywhere the Lib Dems get 20% and probably not anywhere they get 15%.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 4, 2024 10:32:52 GMT
The local votes cast in the 7 Hertfordshire authorities were:
LD 65121 32.6% Con 55794 28.0% Lab 51289 25.7% Grn 20750 10.4%
No elections in Dacorum, East Herts and Hertsmere which on aggregate would have probably voted Conservative over Lib Dem but narrowly and turnout will be low in those districts. The Conservative and Lib Dem votes are somewhat flattered in Stevenage relative to Labour (where in a number of wards there were full Labour slates but only partial slates for the other parties). This could be the one that the Conservatives win with 30% of the vote (or another party does)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 4, 2024 10:58:57 GMT
Broxbourne PCC vote
Con 10125 53.2% Lab 5685 29.9% Grn 1807 9.5% LD 1398 7.4%
The Labour and Green votes almost exactly match their local election vote (5687 and 1830 respectively). The LDs have about 250 more, partly a consequence of them having no candidate in 1 of the 10 wards while the Conservatives have an extra 700
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 4, 2024 13:11:47 GMT
Con 93658 36.7% LD 68264 26.7% Lab 66585 26.1% Grn 26714 10.5%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 4, 2024 13:15:47 GMT
Don't expect any borough breakdowns from uber-useless Broxbourne council (except for the result from their own poxy borough)
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,981
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Post by ColinJ on May 7, 2024 13:31:57 GMT
Three Rivers was:
ASH-EDWARDS Con 9,166 PRENDERGAST LD 7,700 PLATER Lab 3,681 FISHER Green 2,422
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,981
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Post by ColinJ on May 7, 2024 13:37:20 GMT
The final result for the County was:
ASH-EDWARDS Con 93,658 36.7% PRENDERGAST LD 68,264 26.7% PLATER Lab /Co-op 66,585 26.1% FISHER Green 26,714 10.5%
So, as Pete predicted (and I've just spotted has already posted!) the final result indicates that the return to FPTP saved the Tory bacon in the county.
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