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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 11, 2024 20:43:55 GMT
The same top two as in 2021 and that went to a second round, so eyeballing the rough result under SV is easier than in most places.
79.2% of votes transferred (albeit that this was with only three candidates so you couldn't put a second preference for an already eliminated candidate when your first preference was still valid) and the LDs beat the Conservatives 79.1%-20.9% on transfers. Stick those figures into 2024 and you get:
LD 68264 + 58449 = 126713 (53.7%) Con 93658 + 15444 = 109102 (46.3%)
In practice a fair number of Labour and Green 2nd preferences would have gone to the Greens/Labour, but I don't think the Tories have got less transfer-toxic since 2021 so even so it would still likely have led to the Tories losing the PCC.
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