|
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:25:57 GMT
Milton Keynes
|
|
carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 4,778
Member is Online
|
Post by carolus on Feb 17, 2024 9:11:58 GMT
Current council: 26 Lab, 16 LD, 14 Con, 1 Vacancy Up in 2024: 9 Con, 6 Lab, 4 LD
The vacancy in Loughton & Shenley (2027) was elected as Lab. The Lab in Tattenhoe (2027) was elected as Con.
Byelection: 2023, Sep. Newport Pagnell South (2024). LD gain from Con by 16.1% over Lab, 21.1% over Con.
Split wards (2023 result given): Bletchley Park - 2 Lab, 1 Con. Con defence. Lab gain by 2% from Con. Bletchley West - 2 Lab, 1 Con. Con defence. Lab hold by 6.4% over Con. Campbell Park & Old Woughton - 2 LD, 1 Con. Con defence. LD hold by 18.8% over Con. Danesborough & Walton - 2 Con, 1 Lab. Con defence. Lab gain by 4.2% from Con. Olney - 2 Con, 1 Lab. Con defence. Lab gain by 1% from Con. Shenley Brook End - 2 LD, 1 Con. Con defence. LD gain by 0.1% from Con Stantonbury - 2 Lab, 1 Con. Con defence. Lab gain by 18.3% from Con. Tattenhoe - 2 Con, 1 Lab (ex-Con). Con defence. Con hold by 5.1% over Lab.
Close wards (2023 result given): Loughton & Shenley - Lab gain by 9.9% from Con.
2023 Candidate totals (+1): 20 Con, 20 Lab, 20 LD, 15 Green, 7 Reform UK, 1 Heritage, 1 WEP 2021 Candidate totals (+2): 21 Con, 21 Lab, 20 LD, 16 Green, 2 UKIP, 1 Heritage, 1 Reform UK, 1 WEP, 3 Ind
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 17, 2024 9:44:03 GMT
Stantonbury looks like a straightforward Labour gain but the party will have to do well to make the other 2 gains needed for outright control. Bletchley West should be OK, others are potentially close. That is, if all those wards are being contested this year.
|
|
carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 4,778
Member is Online
|
Post by carolus on Feb 17, 2024 9:47:32 GMT
Stantonbury looks like a straightforward Labour gain but the party will have to do well to make the other 2 gains needed for outright control. Bletchley West should be OK, others are potentially close. That is, if all those wards are being contested this year.They are - Milton Keynes is uniformly three-member wards.
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Feb 17, 2024 11:02:53 GMT
One of the Stony Stratford Councillors also elected as Con and defected to Lab last year.
Labour need to repeat last year’s results for a majority. However with the Tattenhoe defection, and this ward going into Buckingham & Bletchley which is now seen as the close one (well into Labour landslide territory) I see this ward as falling before a couple of others.
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Feb 17, 2024 11:05:48 GMT
Stantonbury looks like a straightforward Labour gain but the party will have to do well to make the other 2 gains needed for outright control. Bletchley West should be OK, others are potentially close. That is, if all those wards are being contested this year. The third seat in order would be the one in this week’s by-election. So scraping over the line should be doable but any decent/workable majority will be tougher
|
|
ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,981
|
Post by ColinJ on Mar 6, 2024 11:54:49 GMT
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,795
Member is Online
|
Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 8:31:52 GMT
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 8, 2024 10:29:07 GMT
Little of note in the SOPN. A few retreads across the board suggest there's a shortage of candidates on all sides. The Indy in Monkston I think was supposed to be the Conservative candidate, but it should be a safe Lib Dem ward so it will make little difference. Ron Haine in Bletchley East bletchleyfennystratford-tc.moderngov.co.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=110 seems to be a genuine Indy, Ray Brady in Loughton is the dumped Reform candidate, his standing may hurt the Tories in a competitive ward. I'll try to pull some thoughts together over the next day or so.
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 9, 2024 1:08:36 GMT
I've spent too much time on here today but I'd better make a start here. The headline in MK is that Labour want a majority, and the Lib Dems want to become the official opposition. The Tories won almost everything possible in 2021, then lost all conceivable marginals in 2022, then lost some of their safest seats in 2023. So there's been a huge reverse, many of our wards are marginal, split, and swing together. There's been no majority for anyone in MK since about 2008 so if Labour can do it, it'll be a huge achievement a decade in the making. If the Tories can't hold some of their losses from last year, their group will be greatly reduced. The main feature of the campaign so far has been the Tories claiming that there are plans to reduce waste collection. There's no truth to it at all - I hesitate to use the word lie in politics but there's really no other that fits here - and they've been called out on it. www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd108d2g8dxo I understand it's been referred to the police although that's hardly likely to achieve anything. MK has usually had better cross-party relations than many of our neighbours. With no majority in 15 years we've had to work together but with such planned growth we've tried to have plans all parties can live with if they entered the administration. I just wonder if that's breaking down now, with Labour eyeing a majority and the Tories at risk of having a much smaller group and poisoning the well like this. I hope not. So lots of Tory defences in marginals and safer seats lost last year, but also plenty of strong incumbents defending so it's some hard targetting decisions for Labour in particular - go for the low hanging fruit to secure the majority, or go hard at the stretch targets won last year? We have 19 3-seater wards so every ward is up. Council currently Lab 27 LD 16 Con 14, with Con defending 11, Lab defending 5 and LD defending 3. (Those figures don't match carolus numbers above - we'll get to that.) With an eye on the general election it seems sensible to do this by parliamentary seat as that's also a big factor looming over the elections. Milton Keynes North (defending MP - Ben Everitt)Wolverton (last year Lab hold by 1,349 over Con) Lab defenceAnsar Hussain defends for Labour. He was suspended over tweets at one point but looks to be back in the fold. Labour have won every election here since the new boundaries and hard to see any risk here this year. Ex Tory group leader Edith Bald stands here as she did last year - looks like she's being asked to make up the numbers. Stony Stratford (last year Lab hold by 382 over Con) Con defence
Technically a Con defence, and indeed the incumbent Joe Hearnshaw is re-standing - but for Labour. I've counted it as a Con defence unlike carolus but it doesn't feel that way. Joe defected last year after seeing Labour win the previous 2 elections. Simply self-preservation, a genuine change of heart or a bit of both? Not sure but I rate his chances much higher now he's on the red team. This is a ward with a huge amount of new housing which is now dominating the historic town of Stony Stratford itself - so the long term trend is towards Labour. Another Con re-tread: Denise Brunning retired from the seat in 2019 and is attempting to return. I can see how the Tories win this: Denise is well-respected, higher turnout in Stony Stratford than the new estates (Fairfields/Whitehouse) and if Labour voters hold their noses over having an ex-Tory as candidate then they could do it. But with the polls as they are, I think it'll be too tough an ask this year. Bradwell ( last year Lib Dem hold by 897) Lib Dem defenceDeputy Mayoress Marie Bradburn defends. Wife of group leader but an accomplished Councillor in her own right. Something's gone very wrong here if this is close. Stantonbury ( last year Lab gain from Con by 639) Con defenceCon defence, but the incumbent stands down after a single term. So the defence falls to Amanda Marlow - another Tory retread as she retired in the face of likely defeat in Loughton and Shenley last year. Lab candidate a parish councillor from Wolverton who I don't know. I'd expect a thumping Lab win here - this isn't a ward who will listen to Tory messaging about plans starting to work when they don't feel it, and the Labour campaign machine seems to be firing much better than the Conservative one here - since the loss of Alex Walker the Tories have been much less effective. If they get the gain, it'll be the first time Stantonbury has 3 Cllrs from the same party since Labour won all 3 back in 2014. Newport Pagnell South (last year Lib Dem hold by 377) Con defenceWell I say Con defence, but this is the other one where it's all changed. The Lib Dems had a historic defeat here in 2021 in their safest ward on paper, with a combination of a last minute retirement, a planning issue badly mishandled by the Councillors, and a campaign team that had got rusty and complacent through repeated success. The Tories couldn't believe their luck. But be careful what you wish for. The Tory candidate who got elected proved to be a far from ideal representative, and it all went wrong after he was involved in a car crash which damaged the van of a local business. He was driving without insurance, as a result the local business couldn't claim and had to lose their premises on Newport Pagnell High Street. The Cllr tried to keep it under wraps, not even telling his party after he had been convicted. It was only MK Citizen journalists who uncovered what was happening by seeing Wycombe magistrate court listings. He had to resign on the spot, Tory reputation turned to mud, and the Tories ended up third in their own defence in the by-election, with Labour mounting a spirited campaign to secure second place but still a long way behind. So the Lib Dems have already gained the seat and need to defend it; the Labour candidate returns from the by-election. The Tory 'defence' looks impossible given the history and there's a new candidate to try. I'd have made the Lib Dems favourite had they been challenging, but they really should hold their by-election gain given the circumstances. Note that the first 4 wards and 1/3 of Newport Pagnell South are part of the core MK urban area. The final 2 2/3 wards are the rural north of the borough. Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope (last year Con hold by 466 over Lib Dem) Con defence.
The Lib Dems did make significant progress here last year - a Tory majority under 500 is unheard of in these parts - but this just looks like an impossible nut to crack. The Hanslope area outvotes Newport Pagnell in both turnout and voting intention, and even the Tory travails in Newport Pagnell South aren't likely to have a big enough ripple to cause trouble here. With the Lib Dems fighting for gains elsewhere rather than defences like last year, I suspect they won't be able to put quite as much effort into this ward. Chris Wardle defends his seat for the Cons and the Lib Dem candidate from last year who did so well returns - but if the Cons lose here they might as well pack up and go home. Olney (last year Lab gain from Con by 46) Con defence
Labour's result here last year was one of their best in the whole country. This should be impossible territory for them, swathes of true blue countryside surrounding the market town of Olney. If this was typical of their performance nationally, they'd be heading north of 500 MPs. So can lightning strike twice? They're giving it a good go but I reckon they may fall short. Several reasons: a very strong incumbent who is well-established, respected and connected across the community. Tory voters much more motivated to turn out after the shock last year. No Reform candidate unlike last year. Last year relied on train-loads of activists from London coming up day after day. Will that be possible again with a London Mayoral election underway? And finally I've heard a lot less about the Labour candidate this year, although he is an Olney Town Councillor. So the Tories really really should hold this. But even having to type that, knowing that Labour will tie the Tories down in a seat like this that should be a banker, is a huge achievement that paves the way for gains in marginals elsewhere. Summary
I think the most likely result here is Lab 3 (+2) Lib Dem 2 (+1) Con 2 (-3) [those figures based on comparison against 2021, both Labour and Lib Dems already have their +1s as above] If the Tory leads in the rural wards are < 500, and they don't come close in Stantonbury/Stony Stratford, I'd favour Labour for the MK North parliamentary seat. If the Tories get better rural majorities and hold at least one city seat then I imagine they'd take that as a step forward, especially if they can recover somewhat in Newport Pagnell South. For the Lib Dems it's really about securing their 2 wards and a respectable result in Newport North - their real targets come later.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 9, 2024 8:35:04 GMT
I note that Bradwell ward split 1LD/2L in 2014, before the LDs gained both Labour seats in the following cycle and then powered away from 2019 onwards. Is that indicative of a ward with a lot of voters who would be as happy voting Labour as LD, and if so is it the sort of place that Labour are going to put a bit more effort into as preparation for the general election and to expand their possible target list if they do get a majority?
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 9, 2024 10:29:47 GMT
I think 2014 was more about the major boundary changes than anything else. Marie Bradburn lost by 10 votes in 2014. The current Bradwell ward took half of the previous Bradwell ward (solid LD but lost to Labour in 2012) a big chunk of the previous Stony Stratford ward (Con / Lab marginal never worked by the LDs) and a bit of the old Wolverton ward (strong Lab but LD history) so it took the Lib Dems time to work the estates coming in, and no surprise that first election in 2014 was split and a bit all over the place. Once established the Lib Dems worked the new ward hard with a strong team, far more dynamic than the Labour team here, to the point that it's seen as a safe ward by all sides now.
I can make guesses about the GE vote but I'll be honest it's only guesses and I haven't seen GE box counts here. My instinct is that much of the LD local vote in Bradwell village and the ex-Stony parts is an anti-Lab tactical vote and there will be plenty of Tory votes nationally. But I'd expect this to be outweighed by Heelands (next to Bradwell Village) and the ex-Wolverton parts where Starmer's Labour will be much more popular than Corbyn's. So overall I'd guess Lab need to win this on GE night if they want to win the constituency, but perhaps only narrowly.
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 9, 2024 14:35:37 GMT
Onto Milton Keynes Central now. 8 urban wards (Actually 1/3 of one ward is rural, the Danesborough part of the final ward.) Nominally Tory but they lost every ward here last year, and although Johnny Luk is a hyperactive PPC for the Tories this is an uphill battle however much industry he is showing. Going from west to east:
Loughton and Shenley (Lab gain from Con by 337) Lab defence Labour did incredibly well to win this ward in 2021 - the only marginal they held, due to having an impressive incumbent and the Tory candidate not in the same league. She now stands down after a decade of service. Last year's winner resigned from the Council after 6 months for health reasons - we were here only 2 months ago for a by-election, which Labour held by 165 votes. If the Tories are going to win a surprise ward, I have my eye on this one. No incumbent, the same Tory candidate as last year and the by-election, voting fatigue, and the Labour candidate is the wife of the current Mayor (so Mayoress). So she's been busy with civic events all year and I don't know how much profile she has herself. Tories must win this to be in contention for the parliamentary seat. I'd make them odds-against, but not by much.
Shenley Brook End (Lib Dem gain from Con by 4) Con defence Only a fool makes predictions here - often MK's closest ward. The losing Tory candidate from last year, Saleena Raja, now challenges for the Lib Dems. She's also the chair of the parish council, and her knife-edge defeat last year was actually one of the best Con results in MK, indicating a substantial personal vote. Fair play to her for picking herself up after a defeat by that sort of margin. The Tory incumbent stands down (surprisingly - I thought he was going places) and I don't know a lot about the Tory defender except he lives in the ward. If the Lib Dems win, they will have all 3 councillors in the ward for the first time since 2015 so it's a big prize. Lib Dem organisation seems to have improved, I think they might just make it. After a recount of course.
Central Milton Keynes (Lab hold by 612 over Con) Lab defence (double vacancy last year so top vote) Labour incumbent defends, and Labour have never lost a seat here since the ward boundary changes. New Tory candidate i don't know, I doubt there will be a great deal of activity here so I'd anticipate a smooth Labour hold.
Woughton and Fishermead (Lab hold by 1,001) Lab Defence Does my majority look big in this? Labour fortress that will deliver a huge majority come rain or shine. Worth keeping an eye on turnout here - Labour will want it high as they want to get as many voters out here in the GE as possible.
Campbell Park and Old Woughton (Lib Dem hold by 664) Con defence This ward has been split for its whole existence - but the Lib Dems have a great chance to capture all three seats this year, following a sizeable win last year after several close results over the past decade. The Tory incumbent defends - she'll win the Old Woughton part of the ward with ease, but although a classy councillor I'm not sure she's much of a street fighter in the estates making up the rest of the ward, and the Lib Dem candidate was a Councillor 20 years ago and has had plenty of time to prepare. The leaflet count since the last election is something like 9-1 in the Lib Dems favour and the Lib Dem operation here seems to be leaving the Tory campaign in its tracks. It won't be easy and it's not in the bag, but expecting a Lib Dem gain here.
Broughton (Lib Dem hold by 1,275) Lib Dem defence This was a Tory-leaning marginal until very recently, but the Conservative operation has collapsed here following the retirement of one of their most effective campaigners in 2021 (He retired facing defeat - but it was such a good year for the Tories he'd have won.) The Lib Dem team have picked up the mantle, and have focussed on the hundreds of new builds completed in the ward each year. They've racked up huge majorities as a result and i wouldn't be shocked by an even greater majority this year. - This was the first ward the Tory bin collection leaflets went out in, so we'll see the impact here. It's possible the backlash against the Tories has been so great it might actually help the Lib Dems. Our regular Heritage Party candidate stands but I doubt he will make much impact.
Monkston (Lib Dem hold by 724) Lib Dem defence Vanessa McPake 'retires' after at least 20 years on the Council and she will be missed. There's an independent candidate who I think was a Tory activist/candidate until recently. I can't see anyone having the resources to get close to the Lib Dems here, last year also had a new candidate and was a comfortable Lib Dem hold.
Danesborough and Walton (Lab win by 165 over Con) Con defence If it hadn't been for Labour's win in Olney, last year's Labour result would have been celebrated more than it was - the first ever win in this ward which had always been solidly Tory before. And not just Tory, but Hopkins Tory. David Hopkins has a massive personal vote based in the Woburn Sands area, and since 2014 his daughter Victoria has joined him on the Council. This is another ward with massive housebuilding - and massive by Milton Keynes standards means we are counting in the thousands. This ward is both significantly oversized, and has a rural component so it's no mean feat to campaign effectively here. We'll find out which part of the name makes the difference this year as Victoria Hopkins - now a 3 term incumbent - defends against the Labour candidate who lost in Tattenhoe last year. Both sides are putting significant effort in here. My instinct is that the Hopkins name might just have enough power to get the Tories over the line but I have very low confidence in that. A marquee contest this year. If the Tories can't hold here, where can they? Summary I think this might end up Lab 3-4 Lib Dem 3-4 Con 0-2. (3,2,3 in 2021) For the Tories to be competitive in the parliamentary seat, they'll want to win Danesborough and Walton & Shenley Brook End as a minimum, ideally Loughton and Shenley as well, while restricting majorities in Monkston, CPOW, Broughton. (as the Lib Dem votes here will go firmly red come the GE) Labour just need no shocks and winning Danesborough again would be the icing on the cake. Lib Dems laser-focussed on the 2 gains needed.
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 10, 2024 9:51:58 GMT
And finally time for the and Bletchley wards, making up 57% of "Buckingham and Bletchley." Don't be deceived by the ward names - only 1 ward is fully in Bletchley (Bletchley Park.) Bletchley West has 20% MK suburbia - which would be better placed in Shenley Brook End but the numbers didn't allow - and Bletchley East also contains the large new build of Newton Leys and historic Fenny Stratford. So this is less isolated from the rest of MK than you'd think from the names.
Although the Greens are standing in every MK ward I haven't mentioned them so far as I don't expect them to be a factor in any of our contests. That's also true for the Lib Dems here who have no serious interest in any of these wards. So it's straight Lab vs Con across the board. That Labour will be ahead in these 4 wards isn't in doubt; the question is whether they can rack up enough of a lead here to outweigh areas with no Labour history around Buckingham. It will be a tough ask.
Buckingham and Bletchley (incumbent MP - Iain Stewart, Con)
Tattenhoe (Con hold by 146) Con defence This is the smallest ward in MK, as the planned growth here hasn't come on at the pace expected. It slowed down in the financial downturn and never quite recovered, even as other developments surge ahead. It's mostly high-end suburbia on the south-western side of MK and it's one of the most reliably Conservative wards in Milton Keynes. Lab won it once, with an excellent candidate and an Owen-Jones led national action day. Labour did try hard here last year, but their candidate wasn't anywhere near as strong as the Tory incumbent, and they fell short. I was stunned when the Tory victor defected to Labour shortly after the election. That now means that Labour have a huge campaigning presence in the ward and real momentum here as they eye up the last Tory ward going into the new cross-border parliamentary seat. So this is a battle royale this year.
However - the other 2 Tory councillors in the ward are strong, the seat is defended by the incumbent, and I also question quite how strong Labour's new candidate is. This is a Tory ward in character and I make them favourites to hold. Just.
Bletchley West (Labour hold by 206) Con defence This one is simple: it's a Labour ward unless it's a very good year for the Tories. 2021 was a very good year for the Tories (so was 2015) and they won a seat right at the top end of expectations. A high profile but marmite incumbent for Labour didn't help in 2021 either; he's now been re-elected in Bletchley Park. The Tory incumbent defends but I don't think he's built up a high enough profile, especially against Labour candidate Hannah O'Neill, formerly deputy leader of the Council and 2019 parliamentary candidate, who is seeking to return to politics. I'm sure they'll take any win they can get, but with an eye on the parliamentary seat they might need a big majority here.
Bletchley Park (Labour gain from Con by 67) Con defence This is a tight marginal that often goes against the grain. Tory incumbent Mo Imran defends against parish councillor Ayesha Khanom - and as you can guess from the names there may be some community politics involved here. Labour are campaigning hard and seem to have more firepower. With low confidence I think that might be enough.
Bletchley East (Labour hold by 886) Lab defence A solid Labour seat but with a history of low majorities until a big step forward for Labour last year. They'll want that majority even higher this year as it's probably their best ward in the whole parliamentary seat. Edd Hume defends for Labour, a strong incumbent and my only note here is that there's an independent parish Councillor standing - not sure if that indicates a vanity run or some dissatisfaction with Labour, I haven't picked up any panic within Labour yet.
Summary Should be 2 Labour seats and 2 tight contests. So I'll hedge my bets and predict Lab 3 (+2) Con 1 (-2)
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 18, 2024 9:46:36 GMT
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
Member is Online
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 24, 2024 11:34:37 GMT
John Hearnshaw (Tory candidate in Campbell Park and Old Woughton at last 2 elections, and father of Labour defector Joe in Stony Stratford) has released a video condemning the local Conservatives especially over bins, and endorsing Labour locally and nationally.
Not going to change a lot by itself, but indicates the mood music.
The most frenetic campaigning I can see is in Danesborough & Walton, and Bletchley Park wards.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 24, 2024 11:52:20 GMT
John Hearnshaw (Tory candidate in Campbell Park and Old Woughton at last 2 elections, and father of Labour defector Joe in Stony Stratford) has released a video condemning the local Conservatives especially over bins, and endorsing Labour locally and nationally. Not going to change a lot by itself, but indicates the mood music. The most frenetic campaigning I can see is in Danesborough & Walton, and Bletchley Park wards. I'd have expected campaigning in the latter ward to be undercover ...
|
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,543
|
Post by iang on Apr 24, 2024 11:58:05 GMT
Surely every party delivers a leaflet in code to the voters, and they have to work out what it says, and who it's from?
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Apr 24, 2024 17:15:06 GMT
John Hearnshaw (Tory candidate in Campbell Park and Old Woughton at last 2 elections, and father of Labour defector Joe in Stony Stratford) has released a video condemning the local Conservatives especially over bins, and endorsing Labour locally and nationally. Not going to change a lot by itself, but indicates the mood music. The most frenetic campaigning I can see is in Danesborough & Walton, and Bletchley Park wards. I'd have expected campaigning in the latter ward to be undercover ... With the leaflets in code?
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 24, 2024 21:36:18 GMT
I'd have expected campaigning in the latter ward to be undercover ... With the leaflets in code? Naturlich. Damn - I've blown my cover!
|
|