Post by ricmk on May 7, 2024 11:39:40 GMT
Last and possibly least....here's the "and Bletchley" wards:
This is the smallest ward in MK, as the planned growth here hasn't come on at the pace expected. It slowed down in the financial downturn and never quite recovered, even as other developments surge ahead. It's mostly high-end suburbia on the south-western side of MK and it's one of the most reliably Conservative wards in Milton Keynes. Lab won it once, with an excellent candidate and an Owen-Jones led national action day. Labour did try hard here last year, but their candidate wasn't anywhere near as strong as the Tory incumbent, and they fell short. I was stunned when the Tory victor defected to Labour shortly after the election. That now means that Labour have a huge campaigning presence in the ward and real momentum here as they eye up the last Tory ward going into the new cross-border parliamentary seat. So this is a battle royale this year.
However - the other 2 Tory councillors in the ward are strong, the seat is defended by the incumbent, and I also question quite how strong Labour's new candidate is. This is a Tory ward in character and I make them favourites to hold. Just.Con 1566
Lab 1260
Green 218
Lib Dem 157
Labour seemed pretty bullish here and ran an active campaign, but to very little effect. This was the one urban ward which was a solid Tory hold, and their new group leader's seat. All a bit awkward for the Con->Lab defector who's just seen the Conservatives increase their majority. I know Labour thought his defection would make this ward much easier to win - no evidence for that here.
Pete Whitehead asked if the Tories were focussing here as a perceived parliamentary priority. Obviously you'd have to ask them to be sure. From what I could see, they stayed in their constituencies but moved all core team to where they thought they would have most impact within that constituency. So I didn't see any cross-over between Danesborough and Tattenhoe for example, but I think most of the Bletchley team including all helpers from Buckingham, were kept busy in Tattenhoe.
This one is simple: it's a Labour ward unless it's a very good year for the Tories. 2021 was a very good year for the Tories (so was 2015) and they won a seat right at the top end of expectations. A high profile but marmite incumbent for Labour didn't help in 2021 either; he's now been re-elected in Bletchley Park. The Tory incumbent defends but I don't think he's built up a high enough profile, especially against Labour candidate Hannah O'Neill, formerly deputy leader of the Council and 2019 parliamentary candidate, who is seeking to return to politics. I'm sure they'll take any win they can get, but with an eye on the parliamentary seat they might need a big majority here.Lab 1492
Con 1129
Green 232
Lib Dem 195
Labour got a crucial gain as expected - and a majority of 363 is a decent result on reflection with the Tory incumbent defecting and other wards seeming to get more outside help. This is also a better Labour result than 2023 here so I think my gut reaction that this was narrower than expected was unfair. A big name with experience back in the Labour group will help the administration as well.
This is a tight marginal that often goes against the grain. Tory incumbent Mo Imran defends against parish councillor Ayesha Khanom - and as you can guess from the names there may be some community politics involved here. Labour are campaigning hard and seem to have more firepower. With low confidence I think that might be enough.Lab 1532
Con 1171
Green 337
Lab 297
I make that a Lab majority of 361, so although it's by 2 votes unusual for Bletchley Park to have a wider pro-Labour margin than Bletchley West. Stunningly good campaign from Labour here I think, and no signs of Gaza having an impact, the Green vote much lower than in Wolverton despite many demographic similarities. I think the Tories were just muscled out here, it looked to me that they were working harder to secure Tattenhoe in the final week.
A solid Labour seat but with a history of low majorities until a big step forward for Labour last year. They'll want that majority even higher this year as it's probably their best ward in the whole parliamentary seat. Edd Hume defends for Labour, a strong incumbent and my only note here is that there's an independent parish Councillor standing - not sure if that indicates a vanity run or some dissatisfaction with Labour, I haven't picked up any panic within Labour yet.Lab 1614
Con 604
Ind 316
Green 228
Lib Dem 166
Labour get a full 1,000 margin in Bletchley East which they'll be delighted with, another ward where the Tories didn't campaign and got a historic low vote share. I wonder if the Ind was fishing in the same pool?
Should be 2 Labour seats and 2 tight contests. So I'll hedge my bets and predict Lab 3 (+2) Con 1 (-2)Spot on.
I make the totals here:
Lab 5,898
Con 4,470
Green 1,015
Lib Dem 815
Ind 316
These wards all have minor parties squeezed to core, so 57% Lab, 43% Con is a fair 2 party representation. This is about 57% of the new constituency, so if we assume no turnout difference, I reckon Con would need about 61:39 in the Buckingham section to overturn that. Labour will probably know where they stand from the PCC verification, but my instinct is that this would probably be enough for Labour here - so very much game on in the constituency. Can we really imagine Buckingham being a Labour seat? We might have to.
New Council is Lab 30 Lib Dem 18 Con 9, with only Olney and Danesborough & Walton now split.
Let's see how Labour fare on their own - good luck to them.
And just when you thought it was safe to breathe, the LGBCE this morning have announced a new Council size of 60 (as supported by the Lib Dems but opposed by the other two groups and thus the council) for the new boundaries. So much for a year off......
Tattenhoe (Con hold by 146) Con defence
This is the smallest ward in MK, as the planned growth here hasn't come on at the pace expected. It slowed down in the financial downturn and never quite recovered, even as other developments surge ahead. It's mostly high-end suburbia on the south-western side of MK and it's one of the most reliably Conservative wards in Milton Keynes. Lab won it once, with an excellent candidate and an Owen-Jones led national action day. Labour did try hard here last year, but their candidate wasn't anywhere near as strong as the Tory incumbent, and they fell short. I was stunned when the Tory victor defected to Labour shortly after the election. That now means that Labour have a huge campaigning presence in the ward and real momentum here as they eye up the last Tory ward going into the new cross-border parliamentary seat. So this is a battle royale this year.
However - the other 2 Tory councillors in the ward are strong, the seat is defended by the incumbent, and I also question quite how strong Labour's new candidate is. This is a Tory ward in character and I make them favourites to hold. Just.
Lab 1260
Green 218
Lib Dem 157
Labour seemed pretty bullish here and ran an active campaign, but to very little effect. This was the one urban ward which was a solid Tory hold, and their new group leader's seat. All a bit awkward for the Con->Lab defector who's just seen the Conservatives increase their majority. I know Labour thought his defection would make this ward much easier to win - no evidence for that here.
Pete Whitehead asked if the Tories were focussing here as a perceived parliamentary priority. Obviously you'd have to ask them to be sure. From what I could see, they stayed in their constituencies but moved all core team to where they thought they would have most impact within that constituency. So I didn't see any cross-over between Danesborough and Tattenhoe for example, but I think most of the Bletchley team including all helpers from Buckingham, were kept busy in Tattenhoe.
Bletchley West (Labour hold by 206) Con defence
This one is simple: it's a Labour ward unless it's a very good year for the Tories. 2021 was a very good year for the Tories (so was 2015) and they won a seat right at the top end of expectations. A high profile but marmite incumbent for Labour didn't help in 2021 either; he's now been re-elected in Bletchley Park. The Tory incumbent defends but I don't think he's built up a high enough profile, especially against Labour candidate Hannah O'Neill, formerly deputy leader of the Council and 2019 parliamentary candidate, who is seeking to return to politics. I'm sure they'll take any win they can get, but with an eye on the parliamentary seat they might need a big majority here.
Con 1129
Green 232
Lib Dem 195
Labour got a crucial gain as expected - and a majority of 363 is a decent result on reflection with the Tory incumbent defecting and other wards seeming to get more outside help. This is also a better Labour result than 2023 here so I think my gut reaction that this was narrower than expected was unfair. A big name with experience back in the Labour group will help the administration as well.
Bletchley Park (Labour gain from Con by 67) Con defence
This is a tight marginal that often goes against the grain. Tory incumbent Mo Imran defends against parish councillor Ayesha Khanom - and as you can guess from the names there may be some community politics involved here. Labour are campaigning hard and seem to have more firepower. With low confidence I think that might be enough.
Con 1171
Green 337
Lab 297
I make that a Lab majority of 361, so although it's by 2 votes unusual for Bletchley Park to have a wider pro-Labour margin than Bletchley West. Stunningly good campaign from Labour here I think, and no signs of Gaza having an impact, the Green vote much lower than in Wolverton despite many demographic similarities. I think the Tories were just muscled out here, it looked to me that they were working harder to secure Tattenhoe in the final week.
Bletchley East (Labour hold by 886) Lab defence
A solid Labour seat but with a history of low majorities until a big step forward for Labour last year. They'll want that majority even higher this year as it's probably their best ward in the whole parliamentary seat. Edd Hume defends for Labour, a strong incumbent and my only note here is that there's an independent parish Councillor standing - not sure if that indicates a vanity run or some dissatisfaction with Labour, I haven't picked up any panic within Labour yet.
Con 604
Ind 316
Green 228
Lib Dem 166
Labour get a full 1,000 margin in Bletchley East which they'll be delighted with, another ward where the Tories didn't campaign and got a historic low vote share. I wonder if the Ind was fishing in the same pool?
Summary
Should be 2 Labour seats and 2 tight contests. So I'll hedge my bets and predict Lab 3 (+2) Con 1 (-2)
I make the totals here:
Lab 5,898
Con 4,470
Green 1,015
Lib Dem 815
Ind 316
These wards all have minor parties squeezed to core, so 57% Lab, 43% Con is a fair 2 party representation. This is about 57% of the new constituency, so if we assume no turnout difference, I reckon Con would need about 61:39 in the Buckingham section to overturn that. Labour will probably know where they stand from the PCC verification, but my instinct is that this would probably be enough for Labour here - so very much game on in the constituency. Can we really imagine Buckingham being a Labour seat? We might have to.
New Council is Lab 30 Lib Dem 18 Con 9, with only Olney and Danesborough & Walton now split.
Let's see how Labour fare on their own - good luck to them.
And just when you thought it was safe to breathe, the LGBCE this morning have announced a new Council size of 60 (as supported by the Lib Dems but opposed by the other two groups and thus the council) for the new boundaries. So much for a year off......