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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 19:57:28 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 5, 2024 19:57:28 GMT
Also key: Doina Cornell and Trevor Hall stand down in Dursley though they have endorsed Green candidate, (recently) former Town councillor Danae Savvidou. Ken Tucker retires in Wotton, which is a bit of a shock. With no co-operation between the Greens and LDs that could spell trouble for the LDs though county cllr Linda Cohen would be a favourite to get elected. David Drew stands in Stroud Central, which you'd normally expect to be a solid Green seat. I think one of the Nailsworth Greens is the widow of cllr Norman Kay who sadly passed away shortly before Christmas. Helen Fenton, elected as Labour alongside two Greens in Chalford, defends her seat as a Green. Couple of perennial candidates stand again - Mike Stayte in Severn (which narrowly doesn't include his house) and former mayor of Berkeley Liz Ashton stands again for Labour. Long-time incumbent Haydn Sutton stands down in Stroud Farmhill & Paganhill. Repeat fixture in the pages of Private Eye, Nick Housden, defends his Stonehouse seat Correct.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 5, 2024 19:59:00 GMT
I think this is the first time since Stroud moved to all-out that Labour and the Green Party have each fielded a full slate.
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 20:36:52 GMT
Post by batman on Apr 5, 2024 20:36:52 GMT
Surely David Drew is Stroud Central.
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 20:54:26 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 5, 2024 20:54:26 GMT
Surely David Drew is Stroud Central. Yes. EDIT: sorry, I may have misinterpreted your query. Yes, he is standing there. No, he is not incumbent; that was Kathryn Crews for the Green Party, but who is not standing there again. (Haven't checked to see if she's elsewhere on the card) In 2021 Drew stood in Farmhill and Paganhill, coming second to Haydn Sutton for the Conservatives. He also stood in the County Elections for the County Division of Stroud Central and was elected, ahead of Molly Scott-Cato for the Green Party, in what was widely seen as a grudge match following the General Election. FURTHER EDIT: Kathryn Crews is indeed elsewhere on the slate, namely Cainscross, giving an address in Rodborough (ie in neither Central nor Cainscross, which may explain her replacement as candidate in Central.)
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Post by batman on Apr 6, 2024 10:06:58 GMT
Sorry, it was a sort of joke cum compliment to David Drew in terms of him being a central figure in Stroud politics for many years. Perhaps I should have put "is" in capitals.
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Post by matureleft on Apr 6, 2024 10:20:12 GMT
Sorry, it was a sort of joke cum compliment to David Drew in terms of him being a central figure in Stroud politics for many years. Perhaps I should have put "is" in capitals. He’s just coming up for 72 and still wants to not just fight elections but sit on two councils. Impressed!
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European Lefty
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Stroud
Apr 6, 2024 21:10:36 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Apr 6, 2024 21:10:36 GMT
Apparently Thea Piklian in Stroud Slade is also CI affiliated. The independent in Stonehouse almost certainly isn't (I'm 99% sure it's someone I know)
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 7, 2024 12:13:34 GMT
Time for my customary ward profiles, starting with those outside the constituency:
South Cotswolds Constituency (1 seat in 1 ward) Kingswood (1): The sole SDC ward going into South Cotswolds. Even from my perspective, this ward is so far south it should probably be in South Glos. A previously fairly safe Conservative seat, the LibDems won almost 60% in a three party contest in 2021. Their winner from last time is not standing again, however they do have the only local candidate, opposed by candidates from Stroud (Green); Stonehouse (Lab) and Frampton (Con), which will surely be important. As will presumed LibDem activity in a soft target constituency? Prediction: LibDem HOLD
LD 1 (-)
North Cotswolds Constituency (9 seats in 4 wards) Hardwicke (3): The black sheep of the North Cotswolds constituency, this is basically a Gloucester suburb (just don't tell them). Historically reasonably safe Tory, though there is a Labour vote here and in the current climate might be under threat. If this were under the larger and more active Stroud CLP it would probably a target and there would be a fair chance of at least one seat falling, but instead it's the responsibility of North Cotswolds CLP who for obvious reasons probably aren't as well equipped to contest it. Gill Oxley and Mark Ryder stand again alongside a new Tory candidate. Prediction: 3x Con HOLD
Painswick & Upton (3): "The Queen of the Cotswolds". And Upton, a small village on the edge of Gloucester. The Greens have gained ground here recently, and although the sheer wealth of the area kept it Tory, the Greens did win a by-election here last year. Although also pro-EU liberals, this Green vote is very different to that in Stroud (in any other constituency, these voters would likely be LD). With the Tories generally performing worse than in 2021, and with Labour not being the main opposition, you'd have to favour the Greens. The Green by-election winner defends his seat, neither of the Tories do. Prediction: 1x Green WIN, 2x Green GAIN from Con
Bisley (1): Another formerly safe Tory West Cotswolds ward, the Greens gained it spectacularly last time 53.6-46.4 last time out. The Green winner re-stands; it is hard to imagine a Tory gain here. Prediction: Green HOLD
Minchinhampton (2): Moving from Cotswolds to North Cotswolds. The Greens gained one seat last time, though the results show significant vote splitting. Incumbent Green, county councillor and parliamentary candidate Chloe Turner, defends her seat whilst Conservative Nick Hurst stands down. On a straight party fight the Greens should walk it. Prediction: 1x Green HOLD; 1x Green GAIN from Con
Green 6 (+4) Con 3 (-4)
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 7, 2024 13:11:20 GMT
And now those within the Stroud constituency:
Stroud Town (6 seats in 6 wards) Stroud Central (1): The Green councillor stands down, and David Drew stands. Not quite the draw for Labour that it might be elsewhere, but probably enough. Prediction: Lab GAIN from Grn Stroud Farmhill & Paganhill (1): Haydn Sutton defends his seat for the Conservatives. Labour have gone with town councillor Shyama Ananthan. This is one of the stronger conservative wards in the town, but in the current circumstances it shouldn't be. This will be a battle between a Labour party vote and Sutton's personal vote: advantage Sutton. Prediction: Con HOLD Stroud Slade (1): Labour's winner from last time is now an independent, but not standing again. However, this ward does have one of the Community Independents, Thea Pikilian. That said, this is not a target ward for them. I can imagine some of the controversy around the environmental spending pledge will hurt here as well. Prediction: Green GAIN from Lab Stroud Trinity (1): Amongst the safest Green wards in the country. Lucas Shoemaker, successor to John Marjoram, stands again. Prediction: Green HOLD Stroud Uplands (1): Labour's strongest ward in the town, though the incumbent is standing down after one term. I have little or no specific knowledge of this seat. Prediction: Lab HOLD Stroud Valley (1): Long-term Green cllr Martin Baxendale defends his seat, opposed by town councillor Mick Fealty for Labout. Labour have been very active here, but is it enough? Not sure. Prediction: Green HOLD
Green 3 (-) Lab 2 (-) Con 1 (-)
Outer Stroud (9 seats in 4 wards) Cainscross (3): A shock loss last time, none of the incumbents are standing again. On a straight party fight, as this appears to be, Labour should comfortably win all 3, however there is a Community Independent here. That said, she's not a sitting councillor and they don't appear to be targeting it. Prediction: 2x Lab HOLD, 1x Lab GAIN from Con Randwick, Whiteshill, & Ruscombe (1): The hills over the top of Stroud, this has all the look of a Tory ward, but being Stroud, isn't. Jon Edmunds defends his seat, having won almost 72% last time, although this time he has Labour to contend with as well. Can he improve his vote share despite that? Prediction: Green HOLD Rodborough (2): Essentially a Stroud suburb, this will be the CIs main target led by incumbent (elected as Labour) Robin Layfield. Nigel Prenter defends his seat for Labour, and I suspect both of these two will be re-elected. Prediction: 1x Lab HOLD; 1x CI GAIN from Lab Stonehouse (3): Normally the safest Labour ward in the district, the ball was decidedly dropped in 2021. One Labour incumbent stands again, as does the, uh, controversial Conservative. It would be a bizarre world in which Labour were polling 20 points ahead nationally and not winning here at any level. Predcition: 2x Lab HOLD, 1x Lab GAIN from Con Thrupp (1): Safe Green. Prediction: Green HOLD
Lab 7 (+1) Green 2 (-) CI 1 (+1)
South Cotswolds area (9 seats in 4 wards) (This one makes little sense as a cohesive area, it's just to break things up a bit Amberley & Woodchester (1): A surprising Labour win last time, this is being targeted again. Former Stonehouse County Councillor Lesley Williams defends for Labour, though the addition of the Greens complicates matters. I don't know if they are properly targeting this (which probably suggests they aren't). Prediction: Lab HOLD Chalford (3): Two Greens and one Labour swept the Tories aside in their former stronghold last time out, however the Labour councillor elected then defends her seat as a Green. One other winning Green stands again as well. Demographically this is very much Green over Labour, and previous results bare that out as well. As a point of interest, one of the Tories is a Fearnley-Whittingstall, though I don't know if she's a relative of the celebrity chef! Prediction: 2x Green HOLD, 1x Green GAIN from Lab Nailsworth (3): Areas of strength for all three parties, with Labour and Greens recently splitting the seats between them. Despite both having full slates the Tories are probably out of the running this time. Steve Robinson defends for Labour, and Norman Kay's widow stands for the Greens. Robinson will be re-elected easily, but the other seats are harder to call. There are some council and ex-council estates which are strong for Labour and very weak for the Greens but this is an electorate who are used to splitting their votes. Prediction: 2x Lab HOLD, 1x Green HOLD The Stanleys (2): The most puzzling result in 2021, as the Greens one a seat in an area where they've never come close. Incumbent Cainscross councillor Jenny Miles contests for Labour, as she has moved here. NSK stands for the Tories, and incumbent Green Stephen Hynd stands again. Aside from NSK's inevitable re-election, this is a tough one to call. Prediction: 1x Con HOLD, 1x Green HOLD
Green 5 (+1) Lab 3 (-1) Con 1 (-)
Severn Vale (5 seats in 2 wards) Berkeley Vale (3): A microcosm of the district, with middling market towns, former industrial towns, wealthy rural areas, and farmers. It's only really missing Stroud. And hills. A normally lean Tory ward, Sharpness provides the bulk of the Labour vote, whilst Slimbridge (of WWT fame) has a decent LibDem vote. Berkeley is still home to the Berkeley Family and the Berkeley Hunt which possibly adds a few % to the Tories. Only one Conservative stands again, whilst Liz Ashton (district councillor on the old boundaries and former mayor of Berkeley) challenges for Labour again. Maybe I'm being over-optimistic, but her personal vote should do it in these circumstances. Prediction: 2x Con HOLD, 1x Lab GAIN from Con Severn (2): The peninsula into the Severn that makes us visible on any map. It contains Arlingham on the peninsula, Frampton, and Eastington with its social housing. Both incumbent stand down. I know Labour have been working it hard, and in these circumstances, the large Labour base in Eastington may become important. This might sound mad, but..... Prediction: 1x Con HOLD, 1x Lab GAIN from Con
Con 3 (-2) Lab 2 (+2)
Cam & Dursley (11 seats in 5 wards) The centre of the constituency and district. Obvs. Cam East (2): Both Conservative councillors stand again. If the Tories are ever reduced to one seat on the district council it will be Brian Tipper. Labour have been working it hard and should gain the other seat in these circumstances. Prediction: 1x Con HOLD, 1x Lab GAIN from Con Cam West (2): A Labour-leaning marginal, I'm not sure if the Tory has a personal vote or not. This contains the Woodfield estate, and its monolithic Labour vote. The Conservative incumbent stands again, the Labour candidate elected in 2021 is now an independent but retires. Prediction: 1x Lab HOLD, 1x Lab GAIN from Con Coaley & Uley (1): Another former safe Tory ward gone Green, though completely counter-intuitively. Labour standing here shouldn't have too much impact as the Labour vote is small and seemingly willing to vote Green. Prediction: Green HOLD Dursley (3): A mess. Current seat of Doina Cornell, who retires and endorses local Green Danae Savvidou. Labour have three new candidates (including a former Bristol City cabinet member and the Labour candidate from the 1997 Beckenham by-election, both now moved to the area. Incumbent Conservative cllr. Patrick stands again. Absolutely no idea what's going to happen, but: Prediction: 2x Lab HOLD, 1x Green GAIN from Con Wotton-Under-Edge (3): The Green-LD pact has broken down here, and LibDem Ken Tucker has retired (to much shock - one of those "carried out in a wooden box" type councillors). Green group leader and SDC leader Catherine Braun stands again, and Labour have been working this hard for the GE. County councillor Linda Cohen defends for the LDs. Probably no change (though my prediction might). Prediction: 2x LD HOLD, 1x Green HOLD
Lab 5 (+2) Grn 3 (+1) LD 2 (-) Con 1 (-3)
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 7, 2024 14:24:42 GMT
Time for my customary ward profiles, starting with those outside the constituency: South Cotswolds Constituency (1 seat in 1 ward) Kingswood (1): The sole SDC ward going into South Cotswolds. Even from my perspective, this ward is so far south it should probably be in South Glos. A previously fairly safe Conservative seat, the LibDems won almost 60% in a three party contest in 2021. Their winner from last time is not standing again, however they do have the only local candidate, opposed by candidates from Stroud (Green); Stonehouse (Lab) and Frampton (Con), which will surely be important. As will presumed LibDem activity in a soft target constituency? Prediction: LibDem HOLD LD 1 (-)Just a note here: this was not previously a fairly safe Conservative seat. It was held by the Lib Dems long-term before a narrow Tory gain in 2016, which was then reversed in 2021.
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European Lefty
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Stroud
Apr 7, 2024 14:34:10 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Apr 7, 2024 14:34:10 GMT
Time for my customary ward profiles, starting with those outside the constituency: South Cotswolds Constituency (1 seat in 1 ward) Kingswood (1): The sole SDC ward going into South Cotswolds. Even from my perspective, this ward is so far south it should probably be in South Glos. A previously fairly safe Conservative seat, the LibDems won almost 60% in a three party contest in 2021. Their winner from last time is not standing again, however they do have the only local candidate, opposed by candidates from Stroud (Green); Stonehouse (Lab) and Frampton (Con), which will surely be important. As will presumed LibDem activity in a soft target constituency? Prediction: LibDem HOLD LD 1 (-)Just a note here: this was not previously a fairly safe Conservative seat. It was held by the Lib Dems long-term before a narrow Tory gain in 2016, which was then reversed in 2021. You are correct. In my defence it is quite a long way outside my main area of interest! (Round here you rarely go south unless you're going to Bristol). Always looks and feels like a Tory area when I have had cause to go to or through it
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Stroud
Apr 7, 2024 16:07:40 GMT
Post by kevinf on Apr 7, 2024 16:07:40 GMT
Are you predicting a Green/CI - run council after May? Or have I counted wrong?
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 7, 2024 17:39:41 GMT
Are you predicting a Green/CI - run council after May? Or have I counted wrong? (If I've counted right) My numbers add up to Grn 19 Lab 19 Con 9 LD 3 CI 1 which if it actually happens would no doubt continue the Lab-Grn-LD arrangement. However I have no doubt my numbers will be slightly out, some of these predictions are not made with confidence, and at least one ward will do something totally random and unpredictable
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Stroud
Apr 8, 2024 15:49:29 GMT
Post by kevinf on Apr 8, 2024 15:49:29 GMT
Are you predicting a Green/CI - run council after May? Or have I counted wrong? (If I've counted right) My numbers add up to Grn 19 Lab 19 Con 9 LD 3 CI 1 which if it actually happens would no doubt continue the Lab-Grn-LD arrangement. However I have no doubt my numbers will be slightly out, some of these predictions are not made with confidence, and at least one ward will do something totally random and unpredictable Tell me if I’m being stupid here, but I thought the main point of the recent bust-up was Labour councillors being forbidden from going into coalition? I may have misread what happened. Thanks for the detailed ward summaries.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 8, 2024 16:14:26 GMT
(If I've counted right) My numbers add up to Grn 19 Lab 19 Con 9 LD 3 CI 1 which if it actually happens would no doubt continue the Lab-Grn-LD arrangement. However I have no doubt my numbers will be slightly out, some of these predictions are not made with confidence, and at least one ward will do something totally random and unpredictable Tell me if I’m being stupid here, but I thought the main point of the recent bust-up was Labour councillors being forbidden from going into coalition? I may have misread what happened. Thanks for the detailed ward summaries. Well. Forbidden from being the second party in the alliance. It was fine for the ten years we provided the council leader..... In all honesty, given the outcry that this kind of meddling caused everywhere they tried it after the last local elections, I don't see them doing it again especially with the lack of other options
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Stroud
Apr 9, 2024 19:57:48 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2024 19:57:48 GMT
Just a note here: this was not previously a fairly safe Conservative seat. It was held by the Lib Dems long-term before a narrow Tory gain in 2016, which was then reversed in 2021. You are correct. In my defence it is quite a long way outside my main area of interest! (Round here you rarely go south unless you're going to Bristol). Always looks and feels like a Tory area when I have had cause to go to or through it Looks and feels conservative but actually quite strongly Lib Dem. An issue is that Kingswood and Wotton-under-Edge (which definitely belong in the same council; the secondary school for Wotton is Katherine Lady Berkeley, right on the edge of the village of Kingswood, while Wotton is the obvious shopping centre for Kingswood) are a sort of deep-south enclave of the District, with relatively little connection with Stroud itself; and for some decades, dating back to John Cordwell's long reign as County Councillor for the Wotton-under-Edge County Division - the Lib Dems have been a sort of Plaid Wotton if not WNP.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2024 20:07:46 GMT
Incidentally, I think European Lefty is slightly doing down his party's prospects, in that he has forgotten his own observation that Haydn Sutton is not standing again for the Tories in Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill. Without his personal vote I don't see the Tories holding the ward; the Tory candidate is certainly not proclaiming an address within the ward and while that isn't as crucial in a Stroud Town ward as in some parts of the District it does not suggest to me that he is going to put in the effort to win over voters in a ward that has swung between Labour and Con in the past. My personal view is that the Labour candidate looks more impressive than the Green and in any case the ward generally feels more "Labour" than "Green" so I'd have it down as a Labour gain. (As a straw in the wind, there are contested elections for two Town Council seats in the ward on the same day, for which both Labour and the Green Party have put up two candidates, in each case including their District candidates; no Tory is standing. But there is single lesser-spotted UKIP candidate, which in itself tells you a bit about the make-up of the ward and the lack of Tory activity.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 9, 2024 20:16:42 GMT
A final note on Wotton-under-Edge: "being worked hard by Labour for the GE" quite amused me: very sensible of course, it being newly back in the constituency and an area where there is currently a non-Tory majority at council level.
But the only reference to local politics in the Labour leaflet was a photo of the Labour PPC stood next to "local campaigner on rural bus routes, County Councillor Linda Cohen".
No mention of just which party said County Councillor belongs to, but all publicity for our candidates is gratefully received.
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European Lefty
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Stroud
Apr 12, 2024 17:32:58 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Apr 12, 2024 17:32:58 GMT
Seen my first poster stakes of the campaign - half of Uley have Green stakes, and there's one in Dursley. The Green campaign in Dursley mostly seems to be over Facebook to very few followers, with two candidates doing some candidates and leaflets. Labour might nick the 3rd seat after all.....
Apparently Stroud has a similar dominance of Green stakes, apparently. A couple of people have said that Greens may have got cocky and spread themselves to thin, and that this might cost them - I'm not sure I've seen hard evidence of this but then where I live I'd be unlikely to
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Stroud
Apr 12, 2024 20:04:47 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 12, 2024 20:04:47 GMT
Seen my first poster stakes of the campaign - half of Uley have Green stakes, and there's one in Dursley. The Green campaign in Dursley mostly seems to be over Facebook to very few followers, with two candidates doing some candidates and leaflets. Labour might nick the 3rd seat after all..... Apparently Stroud has a similar dominance of Green stakes, apparently. A couple of people have said that Greens may have got cocky and spread themselves to thin, and that this might cost them - I'm not sure I've seen hard evidence of this but then where I live I'd be unlikely to Fair few in Stroud though not overwhelmingly so, plenty in Painswick. Lots in certain parts of Wotton, none in the social housing areas. I haven't ventured up the Severn, the Golden Valley or Minch this week. Hard to tell if the Greens have spread themselves too thin; my instinct is that they have, but they are leafletting fairly heavily and are the only party out of the traps on the stakeboard, err, stakes. I suspect they have may been granted a dollop of central party funds, if there is such a thing. Then again, a Lib Dem of my acquaintance once said: "If you see 100 Green posters, you've got 100 Green voters: if you see one Tory poster, you've also got 100 Tory voters". (Maybe not this year, but you get the point.) Can't help feeling that having union jacks plastered all over Labour's boards isn't an especially helpful look for Labour in this particular District All their leaflets claim sole responsibility for everything done by the Co-operative Alliance, ever, which I feel may rile potential Labour switchers in Stroud.
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