Post by Robert Waller on Aug 4, 2023 20:12:10 GMT
The nomenclature used for parliamentary constituencies in Nottinghamshire will be unusually appealing to some, obscure and unhelpful to others. This is apparent at both geographical ends of the county: Bassetlaw at the northern tip is not named after any town, but rather an ancient wapentake or subdivision of a county particularly in the former Danelaw. More central in the county is Broxtowe, a name which has been applied for parliamentary purposes to two very different areas of the county over the past century or so. The same principle applies here: Rushcliffe was the southernmost wapentake. Less romantic types might argue that it would be much clearer to name this seat South Nottinghamshire; alternatively praise could be granted to the Boundary Commission for adopting a variety of policies and for respecting tradition. In the latest edition of the Boundary Commission for England, the name Bassetlaw was at great risk in the initial process, as it was officially proposed that it should be changed to the more nationally typical format of ‘Worksop and Retford’ – though it has survived in the final June 2023 report. However at no point in this review was it suggested that Rushcliffe should no longer be the title of this south Nottinghamshire seat, and indeed the boundaries have survived intact except for some very minor adjustment to align ward boundaries with Newark.
There has been a Rushcliffe constituency since 1885, and it has been won by a Conservative in every election except for Labour victories in their landslide years of 1945 and 1966. However it does need to be pointed out that there have been very significant boundary changes. Up to 1974 Rushcliffe included the sizeable Beeston and Stapleford Urban District, which made it a much better prospect for Labour. This area is now the core of the marginal current constituency of Broxtowe, which is only fitting as Beeston and Stapleford were in the Broxtowe wapentake of yore, not Rushcliffe.
Anyway, one thing is clear. Rushcliffe was associated with the pro-European Conservative ‘big beast’ Kenneth Clarke for a very long time. He was 29 years old when he first won it in 1970, actually a gain on those former boundaries from Labour’s only ever MP here, Tony Gardner. Clarke was re-elected twelve times and was Father of the House when he finally retired from the Commons in 2019. His smallest ever majority was just over 5,000 in 1997. Labour did rise 12% to a respectable 38% in Clarke’s last contest in 2017, and perhaps because of his very long-term personal ‘incumbency’ vote his successor Ruth Edwards found the Tory lead over Labour cut again slightly in 2019, with the Liberal Democrats more than tripling their share in third place. Rushcliffe was now the 91st most marginal Conservative seat – that is, more marginal than the average, and requiring less than half the swing to fall to Labour than, say, Sherwood and Mansfield, two Nottinghamshire seats that have been in Labour hands relatively recently.
The main reason for Rushcliffe’s electoral behaviour is not hard to find. Like its best known representative, this is a strongly pro-Remain constituency, estimated at 58.5% in the 2016 referendum, whereas Sherwood and Mansfield were strongly for Brexit. In turn Rushcliffe’s attitude needs to be explained. It was not, in the main, a matter of following the MP’s lead. Overall, Rushcliffe is an affluent, and, importantly, well-educated seat: 540th in England and Wales out of 575 for ‘no educational qualifications’ and 54th for Level 4 (degree) and above. It also ranks 17th in the list of those employed in education, as well is in the top 25 for higher professional and higher managerial occupations. Although there is not a dramatic concentration of full time students, the influence of Nottingham’s two universities is a likely factor. The seat is close to Nottingham Trent’s Clifton campus, for example.
This is because the Rushcliffe seat contains two distinct sections. In one, we are in the suburbs of the city of Nottingham, in the community of West Bridgford. In fact, many would still think we are here still in the city. Among the landmarks on this south side of Trent Bridge as well as the county administrative headquarters are the eponymous Test cricket venue, and the ground of Nottingham Forest, the city’s more successful league club (though not the oldest). Nevertheless it has always been defined to be outside the city boundaries. West Bridgford had a population of around 50,000 in 2021. It is predominantly owner occupied and middle class, but does contain most of the Asian element of the Rushcliffe seat, which numbered around 6.5% at the time of the last census. It also harbours Labour’s strongest areas in the constituency. For example in the most recent county council elections in 2021 Labour easily won the West Bridgford North division, and in May 2023 they returned five councillors, including in Trent Bridge and Abbey wards. The Liberal Democrats shared the representation of West Bridgford’s Musters ward and the Greens easily retained Lady Bay.
However just over half the Rushcliffe seat lies in the rural south Nottinghamshire rolling acres, which is fairly solidly Conservative at all levels, with the exception in 2023 of the large village of Ruddington where Labour added the third council seat to the two they had gained in 2019, though they could not win in Cotgrave ward, in which was situated one of the last coal mines to be sunk not only in Nottinghamshire but in England; it operated between the early 1960s and the early 1990s. A slew of other villages are more typical, the largest communities being Radcliffe on Trent, and Keyworth, but including those with the names of Widmerpool, Bunny, Gotham and West and East Leake.
Rushcliffe new ward boundary 2023 maps
www.rushcliffe.gov.uk/elections/ward-boundaries-and-maps/
As the new MP may not have been as local or as popular yet as the West Bridgford-born, personable, rumpled honourable member for nigh on half a century, there was a strong possibility that the Conservatives might actually lose Rushcliffe; they would on projections of the national opinion polls through 2022 and 2023, and in the landslide circumstances of the July 2024 general election it was no surprise that it fell with a clear Labour majority. Indeed the actual swing at 12,6% wa slower than in some re-gains such as Mansfield and Bassetlaw. There was a time when Nottinghamshire was overwhelmingly Labour and Rushcliffe was an exception. That is no longer the case; ot has joined the majority, while Robert Jenrick's Newark is the only Tory seat and the once Labour once mining stronghold of Ashfield is held by the Reform party.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.5% 189/575
Owner occupied 76.6% 33/573
Private rented 14.9% 445/573
Social rented 8.5% 555/573
White 88.6% 313/575
Black 1.0% 330/575
Asian 6.5% 232/575
Managerial & professional 46.9% 23/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.0% 526/575
Degree level 46.2% 54/575
No qualifications 11.8% 540/575
Students 8.0% 155/575
General Election 2024: Rushcliffe
Labour James Naish 25,291 43.6 +8.8
Conservative Ruth Edwards 17,865 30.8 −16.4
Reform UK James Grice 6,353 11.0 N/A
Green Richard Mallender 4,367 7.5 N/A
Liberal Democrats Greg Webb 3,133 5.4 −10.6
Independent Lynn Irving 549 1.0 N/A
Independent Harbant Sehra 186 0.3 N/A
Lab Majority 7,426 12.8 N/A
Turnout 57,959 73.2 −5.2
Registered electors 79,160
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 12.6 Con to Lab
General election 2019: Rushcliffe
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ruth Edwards 28,765 47.5 -4.3
Labour Cheryl Pidgeon 21,122 34.9 -3.2
Liberal Democrats Jason Billin 9,600 15.9 +11.1
UKIP Matthew Faithfull 591 1.0 -1.6
Independent John Kirby 427 0.7 N/A
C Majority 7,643 12.6 -0.9
2019 electorate 77,055
Turnout 60,505 78.5 +0.5
Conservative hold
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Rushcliffe will consist of
98.5% of Rushcliffe
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_039_Rushcliffe_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
There has been a Rushcliffe constituency since 1885, and it has been won by a Conservative in every election except for Labour victories in their landslide years of 1945 and 1966. However it does need to be pointed out that there have been very significant boundary changes. Up to 1974 Rushcliffe included the sizeable Beeston and Stapleford Urban District, which made it a much better prospect for Labour. This area is now the core of the marginal current constituency of Broxtowe, which is only fitting as Beeston and Stapleford were in the Broxtowe wapentake of yore, not Rushcliffe.
Anyway, one thing is clear. Rushcliffe was associated with the pro-European Conservative ‘big beast’ Kenneth Clarke for a very long time. He was 29 years old when he first won it in 1970, actually a gain on those former boundaries from Labour’s only ever MP here, Tony Gardner. Clarke was re-elected twelve times and was Father of the House when he finally retired from the Commons in 2019. His smallest ever majority was just over 5,000 in 1997. Labour did rise 12% to a respectable 38% in Clarke’s last contest in 2017, and perhaps because of his very long-term personal ‘incumbency’ vote his successor Ruth Edwards found the Tory lead over Labour cut again slightly in 2019, with the Liberal Democrats more than tripling their share in third place. Rushcliffe was now the 91st most marginal Conservative seat – that is, more marginal than the average, and requiring less than half the swing to fall to Labour than, say, Sherwood and Mansfield, two Nottinghamshire seats that have been in Labour hands relatively recently.
The main reason for Rushcliffe’s electoral behaviour is not hard to find. Like its best known representative, this is a strongly pro-Remain constituency, estimated at 58.5% in the 2016 referendum, whereas Sherwood and Mansfield were strongly for Brexit. In turn Rushcliffe’s attitude needs to be explained. It was not, in the main, a matter of following the MP’s lead. Overall, Rushcliffe is an affluent, and, importantly, well-educated seat: 540th in England and Wales out of 575 for ‘no educational qualifications’ and 54th for Level 4 (degree) and above. It also ranks 17th in the list of those employed in education, as well is in the top 25 for higher professional and higher managerial occupations. Although there is not a dramatic concentration of full time students, the influence of Nottingham’s two universities is a likely factor. The seat is close to Nottingham Trent’s Clifton campus, for example.
This is because the Rushcliffe seat contains two distinct sections. In one, we are in the suburbs of the city of Nottingham, in the community of West Bridgford. In fact, many would still think we are here still in the city. Among the landmarks on this south side of Trent Bridge as well as the county administrative headquarters are the eponymous Test cricket venue, and the ground of Nottingham Forest, the city’s more successful league club (though not the oldest). Nevertheless it has always been defined to be outside the city boundaries. West Bridgford had a population of around 50,000 in 2021. It is predominantly owner occupied and middle class, but does contain most of the Asian element of the Rushcliffe seat, which numbered around 6.5% at the time of the last census. It also harbours Labour’s strongest areas in the constituency. For example in the most recent county council elections in 2021 Labour easily won the West Bridgford North division, and in May 2023 they returned five councillors, including in Trent Bridge and Abbey wards. The Liberal Democrats shared the representation of West Bridgford’s Musters ward and the Greens easily retained Lady Bay.
However just over half the Rushcliffe seat lies in the rural south Nottinghamshire rolling acres, which is fairly solidly Conservative at all levels, with the exception in 2023 of the large village of Ruddington where Labour added the third council seat to the two they had gained in 2019, though they could not win in Cotgrave ward, in which was situated one of the last coal mines to be sunk not only in Nottinghamshire but in England; it operated between the early 1960s and the early 1990s. A slew of other villages are more typical, the largest communities being Radcliffe on Trent, and Keyworth, but including those with the names of Widmerpool, Bunny, Gotham and West and East Leake.
Rushcliffe new ward boundary 2023 maps
www.rushcliffe.gov.uk/elections/ward-boundaries-and-maps/
As the new MP may not have been as local or as popular yet as the West Bridgford-born, personable, rumpled honourable member for nigh on half a century, there was a strong possibility that the Conservatives might actually lose Rushcliffe; they would on projections of the national opinion polls through 2022 and 2023, and in the landslide circumstances of the July 2024 general election it was no surprise that it fell with a clear Labour majority. Indeed the actual swing at 12,6% wa slower than in some re-gains such as Mansfield and Bassetlaw. There was a time when Nottinghamshire was overwhelmingly Labour and Rushcliffe was an exception. That is no longer the case; ot has joined the majority, while Robert Jenrick's Newark is the only Tory seat and the once Labour once mining stronghold of Ashfield is held by the Reform party.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.5% 189/575
Owner occupied 76.6% 33/573
Private rented 14.9% 445/573
Social rented 8.5% 555/573
White 88.6% 313/575
Black 1.0% 330/575
Asian 6.5% 232/575
Managerial & professional 46.9% 23/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.0% 526/575
Degree level 46.2% 54/575
No qualifications 11.8% 540/575
Students 8.0% 155/575
General Election 2024: Rushcliffe
Labour James Naish 25,291 43.6 +8.8
Conservative Ruth Edwards 17,865 30.8 −16.4
Reform UK James Grice 6,353 11.0 N/A
Green Richard Mallender 4,367 7.5 N/A
Liberal Democrats Greg Webb 3,133 5.4 −10.6
Independent Lynn Irving 549 1.0 N/A
Independent Harbant Sehra 186 0.3 N/A
Lab Majority 7,426 12.8 N/A
Turnout 57,959 73.2 −5.2
Registered electors 79,160
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 12.6 Con to Lab
General election 2019: Rushcliffe
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ruth Edwards 28,765 47.5 -4.3
Labour Cheryl Pidgeon 21,122 34.9 -3.2
Liberal Democrats Jason Billin 9,600 15.9 +11.1
UKIP Matthew Faithfull 591 1.0 -1.6
Independent John Kirby 427 0.7 N/A
C Majority 7,643 12.6 -0.9
2019 electorate 77,055
Turnout 60,505 78.5 +0.5
Conservative hold
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Rushcliffe will consist of
98.5% of Rushcliffe
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_039_Rushcliffe_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 28168 | 47.3% |
| Lab | 20814 | 35.0% |
| LD | 9496 | 16.0% |
| UKIP | 591 | 1.0% |
| Ind | 427 | 0.7% |
| Con Majority | 7354 | 12.4% |
