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Post by Dave Morgan on Aug 15, 2023 20:16:09 GMT
Wow that a crazy fact; just map checked and I think there’s only 4. And Rushcliffe voted quite convincingly Remain as well. In terms of outright majority there's Kensington & Chelsea, Harrow and Rushcliffe. Some also have said that Buckinghamshire was a very narrow Remain vote but was counted in the now abolished District councils. Bromley as well. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2023 23:55:30 GMT
Think I'm correct in saying Rushcliffe is the only Remain voting Conservative-controlled Council outside London now. That is staggering. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 16, 2023 18:59:52 GMT
Think I'm correct in saying Rushcliffe is the only Remain voting Conservative-controlled Council outside London now. That is staggering. It is noteworthy but not remotely staggering. Lets consider the following 1. It is blindingly obvious that Conservative support among Remain voters has declined significantly since the referendum 2. Given the stage of the electoral cycle the Conservatives control relatively few councils 3. Relatively few council areas outside London voted Remain It is worth asking how many Remain voting council areas were even controlled by the Conservatives at the time of the referendum, obviously more than now but probably not all that many. If there is a surprise here it is not that Rushcliffe is alone but that Rushcliffe has defied the trend. I would offer the following possible reasons 1. The Remain vote in Rushcliffe would have been concentrated in West Bridgford. The rest of the council provides the Tories a solid base where there are fewer Remain voters. 2. In many Remain voting areas where the Conservatives have suffered badly there was a relatively strong Lib Dem base ready to take advantage (see Stratford-Upon-Avon) which was not the case here. 3. The former very high profile and popular MP being a very notable Remainer has probably helped keep more Tory Remainers on board than is typically the case. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2023 3:27:34 GMT
It is noteworthy but not remotely staggering. Lets consider the following 1. It is blindingly obvious that Conservative support among Remain voters has declined significantly since the referendum 2. Given the stage of the electoral cycle the Conservatives control relatively few councils 3. Relatively few council areas outside London voted Remain It is worth asking how many Remain voting council areas were even controlled by the Conservatives at the time of the referendum, obviously more than now but probably not all that many. If there is a surprise here it is not that Rushcliffe is alone but that Rushcliffe has defied the trend. I would offer the following possible reasons 1. The Remain vote in Rushcliffe would have been concentrated in West Bridgford. The rest of the council provides the Tories a solid base where there are fewer Remain voters. 2. In many Leave voting areas where the Conservatives have suffered badly there was a relatively strong Lib Dem base ready to take advantage (see Stratford-Upon-Avon) which was not the case here. 3. The former very high profile and popular MP being a very notable Remainer has probably helped keep more Tory Remainers on board than is typically the case. That's true, there weren't that many 'Tory Remain' councils in the first place. I believe Leave won Westminster seats by almost two to one, so how many Remain Conservative councils were there in 2016? Here, Lewes, East Sussex (which just fell), South Cambridgeshire, South Oxfordshire, West Oxfordshire, Vale of the White Horse, Wandsworth, Kensington & Chelsea, Barnet, Trafford, Westminster, Bromley, Richmond upon Thames, Kingston upon Thames, West Berkshire, Windsor & Maidenhead, Runnymede, Mole Valley, Wokingham; Winchester, Bath & North East Somerset. Where else? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2023 5:24:13 GMT
South Hams, Mendip, Cotswold, East Hampshire, Horsham, Mid Sussex, Tunbridge Wells, Wycombe, Chiltern, North Hertfordshire, Warwick, Harrogate
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 17, 2023 11:28:22 GMT
So even if not loads, still a non-negligible number.
Most of which have, as already related, passed out of the Tories control now - in some cases spectacularly so.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2023 12:03:06 GMT
So even if not loads, still a non-negligible number. Most of which have, as already related, passed out of the Tories control now - in some cases spectacularly so. Yes but then so have many leave voting districts. A good number of these councils ( a majority on my list) have all out elections and had last voted in 2015, on the same day as the General election which obviously boosted the Conservatives and screwed over the Lib Dems. 2016 may have been just about have been the peak year for the number of councils controlled by the Conservatives |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2023 9:43:29 GMT
It is noteworthy but not remotely staggering. Let’s consider the following 1. It is blindingly obvious that Conservative support among Remain voters has declined significantly since the referendum 2. Given the stage of the electoral cycle the Conservatives control relatively few councils 3. Relatively few council areas outside London voted Remain It is worth asking how many Remain voting council areas were even controlled by the Conservatives at the time of the referendum, obviously more than now but probably not all that many. If there is a surprise here it is not that Rushcliffe is alone but that Rushcliffe has defied the trend. I would offer the following possible reasons 1. The Remain vote in Rushcliffe would have been concentrated in West Bridgford. The rest of the council provides the Tories a solid base where there are fewer Remain voters. 2. In many Leave voting areas where the Conservatives have suffered badly there was a relatively strong Lib Dem base ready to take advantage (see Stratford-Upon-Avon) which was not the case here. 3. The former very high profile and popular MP being a very notable Remainer has probably helped keep more Tory Remainers on board than is typically the case. That's true, there weren't that many 'Tory Remain' councils in the first place. I believe Leave won Westminster seats by almost two to one, so how many Remain Conservative councils were there in 2016? Here, Lewes, East Sussex (which just fell), South Cambridgeshire, South Oxfordshire, West Oxfordshire, Vale of the White Horse, Wandsworth, Kensington & Chelsea, Barnet, Trafford, Westminster, Bromley, Richmond upon Thames, Kingston upon Thames, West Berkshire, Windsor & Maidenhead, Runnymede, Mole Valley, Wokingham; Winchester, Bath & North East Somerset. Where else? Is West Bridgeford growing as a proportion of ‘Rushcliffe’? I.e. is this seat is getting more suburban? It’s interesting that in the PCC election (apropos of nothing), Labour did better in Rushcliffe than Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Mansfield (the Mahoning County, Ohio of Notts, IIRC. Rushcliffe is like Delaware County, Ohio (a suburban and exurban, white collar, educated area that’s trending leftward at a rate of knots, IMO. I wonder if Labour benefit from future re-warding here. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 20, 2023 11:26:20 GMT
That's true, there weren't that many 'Tory Remain' councils in the first place. I believe Leave won Westminster seats by almost two to one, so how many Remain Conservative councils were there in 2016? Here, Lewes, East Sussex (which just fell), South Cambridgeshire, South Oxfordshire, West Oxfordshire, Vale of the White Horse, Wandsworth, Kensington & Chelsea, Barnet, Trafford, Westminster, Bromley, Richmond upon Thames, Kingston upon Thames, West Berkshire, Windsor & Maidenhead, Runnymede, Mole Valley, Wokingham; Winchester, Bath & North East Somerset. Where else? Is West Bridgeford growing as a proportion of ‘Rushcliffe’? I.e. is this seat is getting more suburban? It’s interesting that in the PCC election (apropos of nothing), Labour did better in Rushcliffe than Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Mansfield (the Mahoning County, Ohio of Notts, IIRC. Rushcliffe is like Delaware County, Ohio (a suburban and exurban, white collar, educated area that’s trending leftward at a rate of knots, IMO. I wonder if Labour benefit from future re-warding here. No and No. Rushcliffe was re-warded for this year's elections and West Bridgford went from electing 16 out of 44 councillors to 14 out of 44. Furthermore the Tories held up very well there taking 7 out of 14 councillors compared to 7 from 16 in 2019. They did get lucky in Lutterell where they won a three way race with just 39% due to Lab and Green splitting the left wing vote down the middle but the other six Tory councillors represent rock solid wards. While the town centre and the area along the river is probably not too far off what you imagine much of the town is quite typical of British suburbia and still very favourable for the Tories. Now to be fair I didn't expect that they would hold up as well in West Bridgford as they did this year and I have it on good authority that they didn't either. As for future growth the town is largely hemmed in by Nottingham to the North and the A52 everywhere else. If we exclude the idea of higher density housing, which would be opposed with tremendous fury, the only area that really has the potential for significant development is around Edwalton. |
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