Prediction Competition - August 2023

[Tony Otim]

A general rule of thumb when there are multiple independents is go the other way to my prediction, as I will invariably pick the wrong one. This applies doubly so if the election is in North Wales or the North East. I think I've got a truly horrific track record with Middlesbrough...

[batman]

BRISTOL, Bishopston & Ashley Down : Green 54 Lab 23 LD 12 C 9 TUSC 2

DUDLEY, St James's : Lab 46 C 32 LD 9 Ind 7 Green 6

ISLE OF WIGHT, Wootton Bridge : C 40 Vectis 37 Green 15 LD 8

[greenman]

Isle of Wight, Wooton Bridge C 38, Vectis 27, Green 27 & LD 8

[johnloony]

BRISTOL: Grn 47 Lab 29 LD 15 Con 6 TUSC 3
DUDLEY: Lab 53 Con 24 LD 11 Grn 7 Ind 5
ISLE OF WIGHT: LD 29 Con 27 V 23 Grn 21

[yellowperil]

Aug 22, 2023 18:17:40 GMT johnloony said:

BRISTOL: Grn 47 Lab 29 LD 15 Con 6 TUSC 3
DUDLEY: Lab 1000 Con 450 LD 200 Grn 150 Ind 100
ISLE OF WIGHT: LD 29 Con 27 V 23 Grn 21

Are you sure you mean those percentages in Dudley?

[batman]

no John does numerical predictions sometimes, and this is one of them.

[johnloony]

Aug 22, 2023 19:28:51 GMT yellowperil said:

Aug 22, 2023 18:17:40 GMT johnloony said:

BRISTOL: Grn 47 Lab 29 LD 15 Con 6 TUSC 3
DUDLEY: Lab 1000 Con 450 LD 200 Grn 150 Ind 100
ISLE OF WIGHT: LD 29 Con 27 V 23 Grn 21

Are you sure you mean those percentages in Dudley?

Oops! No. I usually do my predikshunz in terms of numbers, and then translate them to percentages. I must have been distracted for some reason.

[Richard Cromwell]

Bishopston & Ashley Down, Bristol City

GRN	53%
LAB	31%
LDEM	15%
CON	1%
TUSC	0%

Wootton Bridge, Isle of Wight

Vectis	49%
CON	21%
GRN	17%
LDEM	13%

St James's, Dudley

LAB	53%
CON	35%
LDEM	7%
GRN	4%
IND	1%

[kevinf]

Bristol
Green 51, Lab 30, LD 12, Con 6, Tusc 1
Dudley
Lab 50, Con 33, LD 10, Green 5, Ind 2
Isle of Wight
Con 42, Vectis 38, Green 15, LD 5

[manchesterman]

BRISTOL: Green 46, Lab 26, LD 16, Con 10, TUSC 2

DUDLEY: Lab 42, Con 34, LD 11, Grn 8, Ind 5

ISLE OF WIGHT: Con 33, Vectis 33, Green 20, LD 14 [con win by 1 vote after several recounts!]

[Tony Otim]

Bristol: Grn 52.4; Lab 27.1; LD 14.1; Con 5.6; TUSC 0.8
Dudley: Lab 49.9; Con 34.6; LD 8.7; Tasker 4.4; Grn 2.4
Isle of Wight: Con 34.8; Vectis 33.2; LD 17.5; Grn 14.5

[andrewp]

Bristol. Green 44 Lab 35 LD 12 Con 7 TUSC 2
Dudley Lab 52 Con 34 LD 7 Green 5 Ind 2
Isle of Wight. Con 32 Vectis 31 Green 26 LD 11

[Robert Waller]

Bristol: Green 48 Lab 36 LD 10 Con 5 TUSC 1

Dudley: Lab 54 Con 34 LD 5 Green 5 Ind 2

Isle of Wight: Con 39 Vectis 28 Green 18 LD 15

[yellowperil]

Bristol, Bishopston & Ashley Down: Con 6, Lab 38, LD 12, GP 43. TUSC 1.
Dudley, St.James: Con 33, Lab 42, LD 14, GP 6,Ind 5.
Isle of Wight, Wootton Bridge: Con 28, LD 12, GP 42, Vectis 18.

[corradino]

Bristol, Bishopston & Ashley Down: Green 47, Lab 32, LD 13.5, Con 6, TUSC 1.5.

Dudley, St James's: Lab 49, Con 36, LD 6 Green 5, Ind 4.

I o W, Wootton Bridge: Con 35, Green 27, Vectis 25, LD 13.

[rightleaning]

Bristol, Bishopston & Ashley Down: GP 45, Lab 34, LD 12, Con 8, TUSC 1.
Dudley, St.James: Lab 40, Con 35, LD 14, GP 7, Ind 4.
Isle of Wight, Wootton Bridge: Con 38, GP 32, Vectis 21, LD 9,

[iainbhx]

Bristol UA, Bishopston & Ashley Down: Grn 42, Lab 33, LDm 15, Con 8, TUSC 2

Dudley MBC, St James's: Lab 42, Con 35, LDm 15 Grn 5, Ind 3

Isle of Wight UA, Wootton Bridge: Con 38, Vec 28, Grn 19, LDm 15

[andrewp]

Now we are past the prediction competition deadline, does anyone have any insight on the tricky Isle of Wight contest? I found some evidence online of Conservative and Green campaigning but less from the other 2. Have either the Greens or Lib Dem’s been working it hard? I could quite feasibly see Linda Pitcher winning easily or coming last.

[robbienicoll]

12 full entries and 1 partial entry from greenman this week, with peterl and bluelabour sadly missing. All on time and correct.

Bishopston and Ashley Down, Bristol: 100% Green hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (yellowperil) to 31% (batman).

St James's, Dudley: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 5% (Right Leaning) to 29% (johnloony).

Woolton Bridge, Isle of Wight: 10 Conservative gain from Vectis, with johnloony Liberal Democrat gain, yellowperil Green gain and Richard Cromwell Vectis hold.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GE5tEPjejZT2bff98VroQQvkANAI9tXEg-KGbpF5iUY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

I think, from my hasty and unofficial calculations, that johnloony has won the week.

Congratulations!