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Post by ClevelandYorks on Aug 16, 2023 16:21:08 GMT
My first entry in this competition.
Ayresome, Middlesbrough:
Lib Dem 36.9%
Labour 34.1%
Independent (Young) 12%
Conservative 11%
Green 4%
Independent (Rathmell) 2%
Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm, St Albans:
Lib Dem 44%
Conservative 36%
Green 9%
Labour 7%
Independent 4%
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Post by johnloony on Aug 16, 2023 17:53:22 GMT
Middlesbrough: Lab 42 Ind R 19 LD 15 Con 13 Grn 7 Ind Y 4
St Albans: LD 46 Con 33 Grn 10 Lab 9 Ind 2
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 16, 2023 20:49:20 GMT
Middlesbrough: Lab 33, Rathmell 25, LD 20, Con 10, Young 8, Green 4
St Albans: LD 51, Con 31, Grn 8, Lab 8, Ind 2
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Aug 16, 2023 21:07:34 GMT
Middlesbrough: Lab 30, Rathmell 28, LD 24, Con 8, Young 6, Green 4
St Albans: LD 55, Con 22, Green 12, Lab 7, Ind 4
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 16, 2023 21:48:46 GMT
Middlesbrough, Ayresome. Lab 33 Young 25 Rathmell 16 LD 16 Con 8 Green 2
St Albans. Marshalwick East LD 53 Con 30 Green 8 Lab 6 Ind 3
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 16, 2023 22:22:05 GMT
Middlesbrough, Ayresome: Con 7, Lab 33, LD 20, GP 3, Ind Rathmell 20, Ind Young 17.
St Albans, Marshalwick E & Jersey Farm: Con 26, Lab 8, LD 50, GP 12, Ind 4.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 16, 2023 23:06:02 GMT
Middlesbrough, Ayresome: Lab 38 Young 15 Rathmell 14 LD 21 Con 9 Green 3
St Albans. Marshalwick East: LD 55 Con 27 Green 6 Lab 7 Ind 5
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Post by corradino on Aug 17, 2023 0:35:27 GMT
Middlesbrough, Ayresome: Lab 39, LD 18, Ind (Rathmell) 14, Ind (Young)13, Con 10, Green 6.
St Albans, Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm: LD 43, Con 32, Green 14, Lab 7, Ind 4.
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Post by rightleaning on Aug 17, 2023 3:08:01 GMT
Middlesbrough, Ayresome: Lab 40, LD 23, Young 14, Rathmell 11, Con 10, Green 2
St Albans. Marshalwick East: LD 58, Con 25, Green 8, Lab 6, Ind 3
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 17, 2023 6:01:00 GMT
Middlesbrough UA, Ayresome: Lab 42, Ind Young 17, LDm 15, Ind Rathmell 13, Con 9, Grn 4
St Albans DC, Marshalwick E & Jersey Farm: LDm 46, Con 33, Grn 10, Lab 8, Ind 3
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Post by johnloony on Aug 17, 2023 7:48:17 GMT
It is intriguing that there is no information given about the two Independent candidates in Middlesbrough, and I don’t even know if there is any connection between them and the Independent candidates in previous years. Thus there is a very wide range of predictions for them in the prediction competition. Maybe some of us are going to look silly if there’s a particular result or not.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 17, 2023 8:03:01 GMT
That Middlesbrough contest was one of the most difficult for a while in my opinion. I wouldn’t be at all surprised by any of 4 winners ( Lab, LD or either Indy). Or of course it could be a very easy Labour hold.
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 17, 2023 8:49:04 GMT
Yes, I think in my limited time making these predictions (guesses), I dont think I've ever seen such a broad range of possible outcomes. Will be very interesting to see what happens later!
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 17, 2023 9:21:05 GMT
I fully own up to not really having a clue!
Middlesbrough is an odd place in some ways.
Rathmell is a rather controversial Independent who was elected very convincingly in a ward (Nunthorpe) at the other end of Middlesbrough, but then lost there in May 2023. He also stood for Mayor but only got about 11%, I think.
Young seems to be active locally in community matters but as far as I can tell has no electoral record.
Labour has often been vulnerable in local government here and the LDs, well, are just good at byelections when they try.
Others may very well now more than me
So I guess we'll just have to wait and see ...
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 17, 2023 10:07:23 GMT
I fully own up to not really having a clue! Middlesbrough is an odd place in some ways. Rathmell is a rather controversial Independent who was elected very convincingly in a ward (Nunthorpe) at the other end of Middlesbrough, but then lost there in May 2023. He also stood for Mayor but only got about 11%, I think. Young seems to be active locally in community matters but as far as I can tell has no electoral record. Labour has often been vulnerable in local government here and the LDs, well, are just good at byelections when they try. Others may very well now more than me So I guess we'll just have to wait and see ... Exactly my thoughts too. The Labour candidate may have some issues too from my googling. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 17, 2023 23:45:13 GMT
While we wait both for official confirmation of the numbers in Middlesbrough and the official scores of robbienicoll, I think the best predictors this week were an excellent debut for ClevelandYorks, and andrewp - who may well have taken the lead for the month, or come very close to it. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Aug 18, 2023 2:14:12 GMT
14 entries for the week with a maiden appearance for bluelabour, all on time and correct. Ayresome, Middlesbrough: 11 Labour hold, with batman, bluelabour and kevinf Liberal Democrat gain. Marshalwick East and Jersey Farm, St Albans: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (kevinf) to 33% (peterl and Right Leaning). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wjEY8ttMk2OR1zMdYZkHabDNLb_3eRM92gmZoTkiuxo/edit?usp=sharing - will double check the Middlesbrough result tomorrow for confirmation but for the time congratulations to bluelabour on an excellent first time showing! |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 18, 2023 10:15:05 GMT
Just checking through the results again and I note if I had switched my predictions around for the 2 Indy candidates in Ayrseome, I wouldve won handily (as I got very close results for the 4 party candidates!) Such is life. I got swayed by the earlier predictions giving high percentages to Rathmall and assumed they must know something I didnt....whereas Rathmall actually polled ...err... FIVE votes!!  |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 18, 2023 11:53:15 GMT
Just checking through the results again and I note if I had switched my predictions around for the 2 Indy candidates in Ayrseome, I wouldve won handily (as I got very close results for the 4 party candidates!) Such is life. I got swayed by the earlier predictions giving high percentages to Rathmall and assumed they must know something I didnt....whereas Rathmall actually polled ...err... FIVE votes!! I didn’t know anything at all about the two Independent candidates, and I predicted more for R than for Y because of the tyrannical ideology of alphabeticalorderism-aardvarkism. Literally no other reason at all. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 18, 2023 12:00:19 GMT
Just checking through the results again and I note if I had switched my predictions around for the 2 Indy candidates in Ayrseome, I wouldve won handily (as I got very close results for the 4 party candidates!) Such is life. I got swayed by the earlier predictions giving high percentages to Rathmall and assumed they must know something I didnt....whereas Rathmall actually polled ...err... FIVE votes!! I changed my mind during the week, I thought Young would have do reasonably well from a look online. On my initial scribble down I had her winning, but then changed my mind and I thought there were enough candidates that Lab would win even if getting 33% odd. Independents are, I think, by nature more difficult to predict. It’s not very often at all where one of the main parties is more than about 20% away from the majority of predictions- but with Independents the range is sometimes about 2% to 60%. |
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