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Post by batman on Aug 11, 2023 9:23:50 GMT
I tend to think that it was a cut-and-dried Residents' Association hold, and that not many people were motivated to make a great deal of the disowning - the Tories were never going to win anyway.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 11, 2023 9:47:42 GMT
Meanwhile, there were some suggestions that already running the council might dampen the pro-LibDem swing in Somerset.
Doesn't appear to have been the case, even though the Greens also improved their position.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 11, 2023 10:07:19 GMT
Meanwhile, there were some suggestions that already running the council might dampen the pro-LibDem swing in Somerset. Doesn't appear to have been the case, even though the Greens also improved their position. Well, it was only a third of the size of the swing in Norfolk*  More seriously that has happened in other authorities, although perhaps not in recent weeks, which may be a sign of how bad things are for the Tories at the moment or that the administration in Somerset is yet to annoy people, or a combination of both perhaps... * Point not to be taken seriously, please |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 11, 2023 10:57:41 GMT
Green hold being reported on Twitter, but no details as yet.
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Post by swindonlad on Aug 11, 2023 11:05:58 GMT
Green hold being reported on Twitter, but no details as yet. The council have also tweeted the Greens have won, but, no figures |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 11, 2023 11:10:50 GMT
Evesham South
Green 319
Con 177
Haines 82
Lab 79
Snape 36
LD 12
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 11, 2023 11:17:38 GMT
Grn 45.2
Con 25.1
Haines 11.6
Lab 11.2
Snape 5.1
LD 1.7
Vote changes depend on whether you count the 2 indies in May as a joint slate - changes using top vote counting as a joint slate:
Grn -10.8; Con -2.1
top vote counting as individuals:
Grn - 4.0; Con +1.2
Using average vote from May (counting indies as joint slate):
Grn - 9.5; Con -3.9
average vote as individuals:
Grn -1.7; Con +0.2
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 11, 2023 11:34:35 GMT
Considering the Labour intervention (and strictly speaking the LibDems, though they got too few votes to matter) the Greens can be reasonably content with that.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 11, 2023 11:36:33 GMT
When was he disowned? If postals had already gone out, that would also minimise the impact. David reported, no doubt very promptly, the fact he was disowned on 9 August. I am sure the majority of postal votes would have been returned by then, and there was little time for opposition parties to use this fact against the candidate in leaflets or on the doorstep. As psephologists and statisticians, we have always been frustrated that the results of elections in the UK are not declared and counted officially separately for each individual polling district. In cases such as this, it would also be useful if they declared and counted the results separately for each day’s sloce of postal votes. I know from what I have accidentally inadvertently noticed that there is a fairly consistent trend in how the postal votes develop over the two weeks before election day. |
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Post by greenman on Aug 11, 2023 12:27:43 GMT
So Ed Cohen was the stringer in May and obtained 45.9% in Evesham South, so tonight's result was 45.2%, .7% lower.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 12, 2023 8:19:07 GMT
Internet hard to connect to on this part of the Grand Union.
LDm +67
Grn +35
Lab +1
Con -37
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Post by andrewp on Aug 12, 2023 8:24:02 GMT
I will keep this updated each week.
Excluding countermanded elections, there have now been 36 ordinary by elections since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 10 - Held 3 and lost 7: 3 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to Labour( retention rate 30% ), and have gained 2
Labour have defended 15 - Held 9 and lost 6: 2 to the Conservatives, 2 to Independents, 1 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 60%) and have gained 3
Lib Dem’s have defended 5. Held 4 and lost 1 to the Greens ( retention rate 80%) and have gained 4
Greens have defended 2: Held 1 and lost 1 to an Independent( retention rate 50%) and have gained 5
Independents have defended 1. Held 1 and gained 3
Residents have defended 1, held 1
SNP have defended 2. Lost 2- both to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
Overall net changes
Con -5
Lab -3
LD +3
Green +4
Ind +3
SNP -2
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