Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 26, 2023 16:07:45 GMT
HAVERING LBC; Upminster (Res Ass died)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Thomas Patrick (Liberal Democrat)
COLLINS, Melanie Jane (Green)
DURANT, David Warren (Independent)
GREEN, Edward Andrew (Conservative)
SULLIVAN, John Gregory (Labour)
WILLIAMS, Jacqueline Ann (Upminster & Cranham Residents Association)
2022: UCRA 3028, 2954, 2930; Con 953, 711, 584; Lab 453, 419, 362; Grn 362
Melanie Collins was the Green candidate here last year and John Sullivan the 3rd Labour candidate. (Thomas Clarke stood for the Lib Dems in Squirrels Heath; David Durant for Rainham Independent Residents Association in Rainham & Wennington (where he was a councillor from 2010-2022) and Edward Green for the Conservatives in Heaton)
Current Council: Havering Res Ass 21; Con 20; Lab 9; East Havering Res 3; Upminster & Cranham Residents 1; 1 vacancy
SOMERSET UA; Castle Cary (Con died)
Candidates:
HALL, David (Conservative)
JONES, Ewan William George (Green)
MESSENGER, Kevin (Liberal Democrat)
2022: LD 1618, 1231; Con 1556, 1333; Grn 469
Kevin Messenger is a former South Somerset district councillor for the Cary ward (contained within this ward) (2019-2023). David Hall stood unsuccessfully in Somerton Ward last year, whilst Ewan Jones stood in Wincanton & Bruton.
Current Council: LD 61; Con 35; Grn 5; Lab 5; Ind 3; 1 vacancy
WYCHAVON DC; Evesham South (Grn died)
Candidates:
BROTHERTON, Stan (Conservative)
HAINES, Julie Anne (Independent)
KNIGHT, Peter John (Green)
QUAYLE, David William Ernest (Liberal Democrat)
SNAPE, Matt (Independent)
TASKER, David Martin (Labour)
2023: Grn 623, 511; Con 303, 298; Ind 186, 154
Stan Brotherton was the top Conservative candidate here in May. Julie Haines contested the larger Evesham South county division as an independent in 2021, coming 3rd and stood in Bengeworth ward in May, she is a former Lib Dem candidate. David Quayle contested Hampton ward for the Lib Dems in May. Matt Snape is a former Conservative councillor for this ward on previous boundaries – winning a seat at the 2017 by-election and losing it in 2019. He contested the county division for Reform in 2021. David Tasker stood for Labour in Evesham North in May.
Current Council: Con 29; LD 7; Grn 5; Lab 1; 1 vacancy
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Post by andrewp on Jul 26, 2023 16:45:38 GMT
David Hall standing in Castle Cary, was also the county councillor for Bridgwater East and Bawdrip from 2009-22 and Deputy Leader of the council from 2013-17
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Jul 28, 2023 16:03:17 GMT
David Hall standing in Castle Cary, was also the county councillor for Bridgwater East and Bawdrip from 2009-22 and Deputy Leader of the council from 2013-17 Probably not the best candidate as I believe he lives in Langport which is well outside the division the previous Tory Councillor had a very strong personal vote. |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 28, 2023 16:48:44 GMT
David Hall standing in Castle Cary, was also the county councillor for Bridgwater East and Bawdrip from 2009-22 and Deputy Leader of the council from 2013-17 Probably not the best candidate as I believe he lives in Langport which is well outside the division the previous Tory Councillor had a very strong personal vote. Yes I think he’s not particularly local. Both the Tory and the Lib Dem elected last year in Castle Cary finished well ahead of their running mates. Henry Hobhouse elected there for the Lib Dem’s has probably a bigger personal vote. It’s an interesting by election. |
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Post by froome on Jul 28, 2023 17:18:22 GMT
Probably not the best candidate as I believe he lives in Langport which is well outside the division the previous Tory Councillor had a very strong personal vote. Yes I think he’s not particularly local. Both the Tory and the Lib Dem elected last year in Castle Cary finished well ahead of their running mates. Henry Hobhouse elected there for the Lib Dem’s has probably a bigger personal vote. It’s an interesting by election. Henry Hobhouse is, I believe, related to Wera Hobhouse, Bath's MP. Ewan Jones, the Green candidate, is (or at least was and I assume still is) the mayor of Bruton. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 28, 2023 17:30:05 GMT
Yes I think he’s not particularly local. Both the Tory and the Lib Dem elected last year in Castle Cary finished well ahead of their running mates. Henry Hobhouse elected there for the Lib Dem’s has probably a bigger personal vote. It’s an interesting by election. Henry Hobhouse is, I believe, related to Wera Hobhouse, Bath's MP. Ewan Jones, the Green candidate, is (or at least was and I assume still is) the mayor of Bruton. mentioned the former Liberal/Liberal Unionist MP for East Somerset, Henry Hobhouse (and others of that ilk) who was based at Castle Cary. I assume this Henry Hobhouse is related to that family but he said that Wera Hobhouse was not (he may have been incorrect as he also said Hobhouse was her maiden name which it isn't) |
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Post by froome on Jul 28, 2023 17:35:13 GMT
Henry Hobhouse is, I believe, related to Wera Hobhouse, Bath's MP. Ewan Jones, the Green candidate, is (or at least was and I assume still is) the mayor of Bruton. mentioned the former Liberal/Liberal Unionist MP for East Somerset, Henry Hobhouse (and others of that ilk) who was based at Castle Cary. I assume this Henry Hobhouse is related to that family but he said that Wera Hobhouse was not (he may have been incorrect as he also said Hobhouse was her maiden name which it isn't) I thought they were related, but you have sowed some doubt in my mind. I am fairly sure that the Castle Cary Hobhouse family go back to the Hobhouses who developed some of the early docks in Bristol before the Harbour was built in 1810. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 28, 2023 17:54:09 GMT
Henry Hobhouse is, I believe, related to Wera Hobhouse, Bath's MP. Ewan Jones, the Green candidate, is (or at least was and I assume still is) the mayor of Bruton. mentioned the former Liberal/Liberal Unionist MP for East Somerset, Henry Hobhouse (and others of that ilk) who was based at Castle Cary. I assume this Henry Hobhouse is related to that family but he said that Wera Hobhouse was not (he may have been incorrect as he also said Hobhouse was her maiden name which it isn't) I meant to say that Hobhouse is Wera's married name - she's definitely German-born. I think her husband is part of that family though. Cllr Henry Hobhouse's declaration of interests definitely links him to the former family seat. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 28, 2023 18:02:59 GMT
andrewteale mentioned the former Liberal/Liberal Unionist MP for East Somerset, Henry Hobhouse (and others of that ilk) who was based at Castle Cary. I assume this Henry Hobhouse is related to that family but he said that Wera Hobhouse was not (he may have been incorrect as he also said Hobhouse was her maiden name which it isn't) I meant to say that Hobhouse is Wera's married name - she's definitely German-born. I think her husband is part of that family though. Cllr Henry Hobhouse's declaration of interests definitely links him to the former family seat. Her maiden name was von Reden I believe. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 28, 2023 18:13:36 GMT
andrewteale mentioned the former Liberal/Liberal Unionist MP for East Somerset, Henry Hobhouse (and others of that ilk) who was based at Castle Cary. I assume this Henry Hobhouse is related to that family but he said that Wera Hobhouse was not (he may have been incorrect as he also said Hobhouse was her maiden name which it isn't) I thought they were related, but you have sowed some doubt in my mind. I am fairly sure that the Castle Cary Hobhouse family go back to the Hobhouses who developed some of the early docks in Bristol before the Harbour was built in 1810. Does that mean we can cancel Wera Hobhouse due to slavery links? |
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Post by cuthbertbede on Jul 28, 2023 19:06:10 GMT
Wera Hobhouse's husband William is indeed one of the Hobhouses of Hadspen House near Castle Cary. He's deleted his blog, but an archived post identifies his grandfather. From this it's easy to work out the connections - he's the son of Lord Hobhouse of Woodborough, son of Sir John Richard Hobhouse, son of Henry Hobhouse MP. If I've identified Cllr Henry Hobhouse correctly, he's the son of Henry "Tom" Hobhouse, son of Sir Arthur Lawrence Hobhouse MP, son of Henry Hobhouse MP. I think that makes Wera's husband his second cousin? |
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Post by greenman on Aug 5, 2023 2:22:46 GMT
So what are peoples thoughts on Wychavon, Evesham South? I assume Castle Cary will go Liberal Democrat.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 5:30:56 GMT
There may be a close fight in Upminster … for second place.
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,743
Member is Online
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Post by carolus on Aug 5, 2023 7:01:48 GMT
So what are peoples thoughts on Wychavon, Evesham South? I assume Castle Cary will go Liberal Democrat. I can't really imagine anything other than a comfortable Green hold, they were reelected with a big lead three months ago. The presence of LD and Labour candidates might reduce the majority a little bit, but maybe not even that, and there's no particular sign that either of the Inds has much of a following either. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 5, 2023 7:50:12 GMT
The difference between Castle Cary and the Lib Dem gains this week is that they're actually running the council (ok, they also run Eastbourne, but election was for the Tory run county), which may have some impact. However under current circumstances you'd imagine they start heavy favourites.
I would never take anything for granted in Evesham South, but I'd hope we should be able to hold.
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Post by batman on Aug 5, 2023 8:27:29 GMT
It is the least cut & dried of the 3 contests, but I will be predicting a Green hold certainly. Castle Cary was mentioned in one of Robert's previous constituency profiles as a good LD area & also a place where there are some long-distance commuters to London. I will be amazed at anything other than a LD win there. It will be a week without Labour expectations & without Labour victories.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 5, 2023 9:03:39 GMT
Labour used to have councillors in Evesham, though this is a while ago now.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 5, 2023 9:17:06 GMT
Labour used to have councillors in Evesham, though this is a while ago now. They got 4 out of 8 councillors in Evesham in 1995. Last Lab win was in 1999. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Aug 5, 2023 13:06:57 GMT
Labour used to have councillors in Evesham, though this is a while ago now. They got 4 out of 8 councillors in Evesham in 1995. Last Lab win was in 1999. Wrong and wrong. They won a seat in Evesham North in May. Con 401, Lab 376, Con 353, Lab 325, Ind 279/252, LD 162, Ind 68 The Labour by-election candidate in South is the defeated candidate in North, who seems to also be the husband of the elected candidate in North. No candidates in either South or Bengeworth, but Labour was the runner-up in Hampton (Con 688/660/619, Lab 434/433, Ind 349/336/318, LD 292/251). Looks like there was some kind of Labour/Green deal or understanding to keep away from each other way. |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 5, 2023 14:18:52 GMT
Labour used to have councillors in Evesham, though this is a while ago now. Wrong and wrong. They won a seat in Evesham North in May. Con 401, Lab 376, Con 353, Lab 325, Ind 279/252, LD 162, Ind 68 The Labour by-election candidate in South is the defeated candidate in North, who seems to also be the husband of the elected candidate in North. No candidates in either South or Bengeworth, but Labour was the runner-up in Hampton (Con 688/660/619, Lab 434/433, Ind 349/336/318, LD 292/251). Looks like there was some kind of Labour/Green deal or understanding to keep away from each other way. Evesham is quite a working class town, and there really ought to be some Labour strength here, even if not enough to win. It seems to be one of those areas where Labour lacks organization, and has difficulty finding candidates. |
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